As a long time IDP dynasty league player, I understand the importance of always looking ahead and trying to be prepared for the future. Trade deadlines may be gone in most leagues, but the offseason will be here soon, and now is the time to start planning ahead.
For the next few weeks, I am going to be looking at the Buy Low/Sell High IDPs who we should be targeting during the early part of the offseason. Of course, things will change once free agency and the draft get here, but for now, it's time to peer into the future as best we can and see if there will be some deals to be made once your league's offseason begins. Beginning this week, I am going to devote one week each to DL, LB, DB, and rookies. Pay particular attention to their team's circumstances and any reports about the particular player for the rest of the season and more importantly, the early part of the offseason.
This week's article will focus on defensive backs. I will add that I am much more aggressive selling high on defensive backs simply because their fantasy points tend to fluctuate much more than any other position and also because they are by far the easiest position to fill during the season.
Buy Low
Charles Tillman, Chicago Bears: Tillman was placed on injured reserve/designated to return due to a triceps injury. Tillman will be 33 years old and he has not played as well in coverage as he has in the past but still has posted strong fantasy numbers. This is a more difficult situation than a traditional buy low, but Tillman's advanced age and consistently strong year-to-year performance makes it possible that he can be acquired for a reasonable price. I don't expect the cost to be dirt cheap but if the cost seems respectable, it may be worth taking a chance on Tillman. Target owners that are rebuilding and wanting to get younger, and perhaps find a good sell high candidate to being negotiations with. I would only do this if you think you will be a serious contender next year and need a defensive back.
Cortland Finnegan, St. Louis Rams: Finnegan struggled mightily this year before being hurt and eventually being placed on the injured reserve list. In the last few years, Finnegan has been one of the few defensive backs that has posted reasonably consistent fantasy numbers. Finnegan has posted solid DB2/3 numbers for us in the past and he should still have something in the tank. I believe his cost will be much lower than other defensive backs in this range and if you agree with my assessment that Finnegan will bounce back, then you should be making an offer as soon as your league's offseason begins.
Roman Harper, New Orleans Saints: This is a tough situation to analyze. First, Harper has missed several weeks with an injury and even before being hurt, it was probably just a matter of time before rookie Kenny Vaccaro starting eating into Harper's snaps. Harper also restructured his contract and has no guaranteed money beyond this year and very well could be playing elsewhere next year. Harper had a terrible 2012 season, but from an IDP perspective, Harper has been an elite option for us. I'm unsure of how Harper's owners will value him, but with a young first-round pick in Vaccaro ready to step in, there is uncertainty and that almost always lowers the cost to acquire a player.
Charles Woodson, Oakland Raiders. Woodson just stated that he wants to return for another season and prefers to play with the Raiders. At 37 years old, Woodson is still posting stud DB numbers and probably is good for another year. It is rare for me to buy on a player as old as Woodson, but if you are a contender, you should take a look into Woodson's availability. His age by itself will keep the cost low.
Stevie Brown, New York Giants: Brown suffered a torn ACL prior to the start of the season and it could not have come at a worse time for Brown because he was coming off a career season and playing on a one-year tender. Now he will have to prove he is healthy and there are no guarantees that the Giants will resign him, nor are there guarantees that he will earn a starting job elsewhere. I am one who likes to buy dirt cheap on injured players and depending on the Brown owner in your league, you may be able to trade for him for pennies on the dollar. Some will hold because he had a huge 2012 season but it only takes the owner in your league to want to move Brown.
Sell High
Barry Church, Dallas Cowboys: Church is currently leading all defensive backs in fantasy points and is 20 points ahead of Antrel Rolle, who is second in scoring. Church has a ridiculous 87 solo tackles, which leads all defensive backs by a wide margin. In fact, no other defensive back has even reached 70 solos. Church is likely to eclipse 100 solos, which is extremely rare for a defensive back. The solo tackles are the reason Church is tops in fantasy scoring among defensive backs. I am not a big fan of Church's talent and do not consider him to be anything more than average in coverage. I would be shocked if Church repeats these tackle numbers and in fact I do not believe he will ever come close. He would be at the top of my sell high list among defensive backs. He is only 25 and will likely top the scoring list and those are both exceptional selling points for you to use in your negotiations.
Antrel Rolle, New York Giants: Rolle is having a career-year in terms of fantasy football and currently ranks second to Barry Church in fantasy points. Rolle has been a decent but not elite fantasy performer in the past and there are several reasons why I do not expect a repeat of this performance. First, Rolle has already tied his career high with five interceptions and his ten passes defended is only one away from his career best in that category. Second, the injury to Jason Pierre-Paul has really hurt the defense overall because the Giants are not putting enough pressure on opposing quarterbacks and in fact they are second to last in sacks. That generally keeps drives alive and allows defensive players to play more snaps, which results in more chances to make plays and, of course, rssults in more fantasy points. All of that tells me to be selling Rolle now because he is much closer to a DB3 type than the elite DB1 that his ranking in the scoring list suggests.
Mike Mitchell, Carolina Panthers: I know this is a sell high candidate than many will not agree with. I have never been impressed with Mitchell's coverage skills and anytime I have that concern about a safety, it enters my mind that the player could be benched or even cut. All you have to do to realize that can happen is revisit the career of Bernard Pollard, who is a fantasy stud but was benched and even cut during his career due to his below average coverage skills. Mitchell has below average tackle numbers, but has four interceptions and I believe that will be the exception rather than the rule. I think the time to trade Mitchell is as soon as your league's offseason begins because I am not convinced he will be a long-term starter.
Ryan Clark, Pittsburgh Steelers: Clark has been a solid fantasy defensive back for the last couple of years and this is somewhat of a surprise given that Clark never really stood out in the fantasy football world for most of his career. Clark is in the last year of his contract and at age 34, he probably will not play too many more years and in fact suggested he might retire. Regardless, I think Clark needs to be moved and I would not expect a great deal in return given his age. I also think players like Clark are easily replaced.
Nate Allen, Philadelphia Eagles. Allen is starting for the Eagles, but their secondary has been one of the worst in the league and from what I have seen, Allen is not playing anywhere near as good as his stats suggest. I would be very nervous wanting to count on Allen and since he is only about a DB3 or so, Allen can be replaced fairly easily. I would move him for pretty much anything, with a draft pick, even a low one, being preferred.
