This article is a weekly look at players generally ranked around the edge of those considered "startable". For the purposes of this article, I will define startable as all players on the edge of starting on a team that starts two defensive linemen, two linebackers, and two defensive backs. Therefore, about the middle of the DL2, LB2, and DB2 range are where the choices begin to get tough. Each position is covered in descending order beginning with the players who have the most prime matchups to those with more risk and less upside to those who are complete reaches. Your mileage may vary, but the idea is to discuss these players and provide you with some analysis that might help you make those difficult lineup decisions a bit easier. I hope that your expertise as an owner has filled your team with enough players that you don't need to consider players outside of the prime cuts discussed here. Good luck and always keep in mind that your feedback and comments are welcome. I also want to thank and give credit to Bob Henry for creating the format for this article.
NOTE: This article was written before the official injury reports were released, so please double check that any player listed in this article is playing. Also, you should always check the inactives on Sunday.
Defensive Line
Note: When I mention stats of the defensive linemen, the format will be solos/assists/sacks unless otherwised mentioned.
Prime Cut (Great matchup, strong sleeper)
Julius Peppers, Chicago Bears (at Cleveland)
Season stats: 24/14/6.5
Last week: 0/0/0
Cleveland sacks allowed per game/ranking: 3.4/2nd
Cleveland QB pressure allowed ranking: 5th
In his first six games, Peppers only had 5 solos, 3 assists, and 1 sacks and at 33 years old, it was fair to wonder if his career was nearing the end. But in his last seven games, Peppers has come alive, racking up 19 solos, 11 assists, and 5.5 sacks. This includes a total of one solo and no sacks in a pair of games against Detroit and Dallas, which are two of the worst matchups for defensive linemen. This week Peppers has a great matchup against the Browns, who have allowed the second most sacks in the league and are fifth in QB pressure allowed. The Browns have a poor running game with very little big play ability and that allows pass rushers to simply pin their ears back and rush the passer all day and worry about run defense on their way to the quarterback. Given all that, Peppers is a must-start prime cut sleeper this week.
Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)
Osi Umenyiora, Atlanta Falcons (vs. Washington)
Season stats: 26/16/6.5
Last week: 2/0/0
Washington sacks allowed per game/ranking: 2.8/Tied for 9th
Washington QB pressure allowed ranking: 9th
As I wrote a couple of weeks ago, Umenyiora has all 6.5 of his sacks in four games, but in fairness to him, Umenyiora did not had a favorable schedule in the majority of games in which he did not record a sack. This week Umenyiora faces Washington, a team that ranks in the top ten in both sacks allowed per game and QB pressure allowed. Quarterback Robert Griffin III has been benched for the rest of the season and backup Kirk Cousins will start. There is a lot of controversy surrounding this decision and the team has the looks of one that has quit and is just going through the motions. In addition, Cousins does not have anywhere near the mobility than Griffin does. Given all that, Umenyiora should have several sack opportunities this week, making him a strong upper-level sleeper. Only Umenyiora's inconsistency keeps him from being a prime cut sleeper but he is probably as close as it gets without being one.
Jason Babin, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Buffalo)
Season stats: 23/8/5.5
Last week: 2/0/1
Buffalo sacks allowed per game/ranking: 3.0/8th
Buffalo QB pressure allowed ranking: 3rd
Babin only had two sacks in his first nine games, but he has come to life in recent weeks, racking up 8 solos, 3 assists, 3.5 sacks, and 2 forced fumbles in his last 4 games. Babin has a great matchup this week against the Bills, who are third in QB pressure allowed and eighth in sacks allowed per game. With Babin playing well in recent weeks and a strong matchup, an upper-end sleeper designation is appropriate.
Solid Reach (Backup/situational player with upside)
Brian Robison, Minnesota Vikings (vs. Philadelphia)
Season stats: 20/10/7
Last week: 2/1/1
Philadelphia sacks allowed per game/ranking: 2.6/Tied for 14th
Philadelphia QB pressure allowed ranking: 11th
Robison has a solid matchup against the Eagles, who are just outside the top ten in both QB pressure allowed and sacks allowed. While that may not seem all that great, there is one major reason to consider starting Robison this week and that is the injury to Vikings stud running back Adrian Peterson. The Vikings have little to offer in the passing game and the Eagles should dominate time of possession. In addition to that, the Eagles tend to run a high number of plays. Consider Robison a solid low-end sleeper with upside this week.
Willie Young, Detroit Lions (vs. Baltimore)
Season stats: 26/14/3
Last week: 3/2/0
Baltimore sacks allowed per game/ranking: 3.2/Tied for 4th
Baltimore QB pressure allowed ranking: Tied for 19th
Young faces the Ravens this week and despite barely being inside the top 20 in QB pressure allowed, the Ravens are tied for fourth in sacks allowed per game. The Lions play on Monday night and as long as the game remains close, the electric atmosphere at Ford Field will cause problems for Joe Flacco. Young is playing well and has racked up 8 solos, 5 assists, and 1 sack in his last 3 games. I am listing Young as a low-end sleeper this week, but if the Lions play well, the crowd will become such a major factor that Young could have a ton of upside.
Deep Sleepers (For desperate owners only)
Ropati Pitiotua, Tennessee Titans (vs. Arizona)
Season stats: 31/9/4
Last week: 2/0/0
Arizona sacks allowed per game/ranking: 2.8/Tied for 9th
Arizona QB pressure allowed ranking: 8th
Pitiotua has a solid matchup against the Cardinals, who are just inside the top ten in both sacks allowed and QB pressure allowed. Pitiotua is not a great pass rusher by any stretch, but he does have four sacks and also posts strong solo tackle numbers and the latter generally means a low chance of a statistical clunker. Pitiotua qualifies as a respectable deep sleeper option this week for owners that are badly in need of help and want to play it safe rather than take a major risk.
Linebackers
Note: When I mention stats of linebackers, the format will be solos/assists/sacks unless otherwise mentioned.
Prime Cut (Great matchup, strong sleeper)
Lawrence Timmons, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Cincinnati)
Season stats: 68/35/1
Last week: 4/1/0
Cincinnati rushing attempts per game/ranking: 30.2/7th
Cincinnati tackle opportunities allowed ranking: 4th
Timmons has been posting borderline top 20 numbers all season and is averaging more than seven total tackles per game. Timmons has a great matchup against the Bengals, who are fourth in tackle opportunities allowed and seventh in rushing attempts per game. There have been 11 inside linebackers that have racked up nine or more total tackles against the Bengals this season (Timmons had eight earlier this season). Timmons is a must-start prime cut sleeper this week.
Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)
Philip Wheeler, Miami Dolphins (vs. New England)
Season stats: 68/25/1.5
Last week: 3/4/0
New England rushing attempts per game/ranking: 28.5/10th
New England tackle opportunities allowed ranking: 2nd
Wheeler has a great matchup against the Patriots, who are second in the league in tackle opportunities allowed and in the top ten in both rushing attempts and passing attempts. With Rob Gronkowski out for the season, the Patriots lose a weapon that attacks the medium to deep zones and that generally means linebackers can play closer to the line. Given that and Wheeler's solid numbers this season, consider Wheeler a strong upper-level sleeper this week.
Jon Beason, New York Giants (vs. Seattle)
Season stats: 53/24/0
Last week: 5/4/0
Seattle rushing attempts per game/ranking: 32.2/1st
Seattle tackle opportunities allowed ranking: 14th
Beason has been a huge surprise and many, including myself, had given up on Beason being a fantasy factor this season. This week Beason faces the Seahawks, who lead the league in rushing attempts per game and arguably have the league's best defense. I fully expect the Seahawks to dominate time of possession and even though they are barely inside the top 15 in tackle opportunities allowed, I expect Beason to post strong tackle numbers and that qualifies him as an upper-end sleeper this week.
Solid Reach (Backup, situational player with upside)
Geno Hayes, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Buffalo)
Season stats: 58/19/1
Last week: 1/1/0
Buffalo rushing attempts per game/ranking: 32.0/3rd
Buffalo tackle opportunities allowed ranking: Tied for 5th
Hayes has posted respectable tackle numbers this year and has been a decent but not great matchup-dependant linebacker for us. This week Hayes has a great matchup against the Bills, who are in the top five in both tackle opportunities allowed and rushing attempts per game. Hayes offers little in the big play categories but he is averaging 4.5 solos per game and given this matchup, I am giving Hayes a low-grade sleeper designation this week. There is little upside but Hayes should have a reasonably high floor.
Deep Sleepers (For desperate owners only)
Tamba Hali, Kansas City Chiefs (at Oakland)
Season stats: 35/7/12
Last week: 5/1/2
Oakland rushing attempts per game/ranking: 28.2/Tied for 13th
Oakland tackle opportunities allowed: 22nd
There are two kinds of deep sleepers that especially apply during the fantasy playoffs: the high risk/high reward type, and the safe one. Hali would qualify as the former because his stats are highly dependent on sacks and without sacks, Hali could post a terrible stat line. Hali faces the Raiders and they are tied for fourth in sacks allowed and just outside the top ten in QB pressure allowed and rushing attempts per game. If you want to take a chance this week, Hali is as good as it gets, but know there is also plenty of risk.
Manti Te'o, San Diego Chargers (at Denver)
Season stats: 31/15/0
Last week: 2/0/0
Denver rushing attempts per game/ranking: 31.0/5th
Denver tackle opportunities allowed ranking: 1st
Te'o is the exact opposite of Hali in that there is very little upside but a respectable floor. Te'o faces the Broncos this week and they are tops in the league in tackle opportunities allowed and fifth in rushing attempts per game. Without Wes Welker, the Broncos are likely to use Jacob Tamme in the slot and Te'o will probably be on the field much more than if the quicker Welker was playing. If you want to play it safe this week. a deep sleeper like Te'o is not a bad option, but there is little if any upside.
Defensive Backs
Note: When I mention stats of defensive backs, the format will be solos/assists/interceptions/passes defended unless otherwise mentioned.
Prime Cut (Great matchup, strong sleeper)
Ryan Clark, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Cincinnati)
Season stats: 46/41/2/4
Last week: 2/3/0/0
Cincinnati passing attempts per game/ranking: 36.1/16th
Cincinnati passes defended allowed ranking: 7th
Cincinnati tackle opportunities allowed ranking: 4th
Clark has been a borderline DB2 for most of the year and has racked up 87 total tackles, which is an impressive number for a free safety. Clark has a great matchup against the Bengals, who are in the top ten in both passes defended allowed and tackle opportunities allowed. Despite Andy Dalton's below average arm strength, the Bengals are not afraid to throw the ball in the middle and deeper areas of the field. That along with Clark's strong tackle numbers makes him a prime cut sleeper this week.
Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)
Marcus Gilchrist, San Diego Chargers (at Denver)
Season stats: 42/16/2/4
Last week: 6/1/0/0
Denver passing attempts per game/ranking: 41.7/2nd
Denver passes defended allowed ranking: Tied for 25th
Denver tackle opportunities allowed ranking: 1st
Gilchrist has a great matchup against the Broncos, who are tops in the league in tackle opportunities allowed, second in attempted passes per game, and fifth in rushing attempts per game. Needless to say, the Broncos run more plays than any team in the league and without Wes Welker, Jacob Tamme will get some of the slot receptions that would normally be thrown to Welker. Gilchrist will cover Tamme in some packages and along with his run defense responsibilities, it makes him a strong upper-end sleeper this week. Only his below average solo tackle numbers keeps me from listing Gilchrist as a prime cut sleeper.
Lardarius Webb, Baltimore Ravens (at Detroit)
Season stats: 54/9/1/19
Last week: 5/0/0/4
Detroit passing attempts per game/ranking: 40.4/5th
Detroit passes defended allowed ranking: 3rd
Detroit tackle opportunities allowed ranking: 13th
Webb has posted borderline top-20 numbers this year and is currently second in the league with 19 passes defended. This week, Webb faces the Lions, who are third in the league in passes defended allowed and fifth in attempted passes per game. Webb will obviously see plenty of action and with his high number of passes defended and the high ranking of the Lions in that category, it makes Webb a solid upper-end sleeper this week.
Solid Reach (Backup/situational player with upside)
Chris Clemons, Miami Dolphins (vs. New England)
Season stats: 46/23/1/7
Last week: 7/5/0/1
New England passing attempts per game/ranking: 40.2/6th
New England passes defended allowed ranking: 32nd
New England tackle opportunities allowed ranking: 2nd
Clemons has a solid matchup this week against the Patriots, who are second in the league in tackle opportunities allowed and in the top ten in both rushing attempts and passing attempts per game. The Patriots tend to run a high volume of plays (ranking second in the league) and that bodes well for Clemons. I am listing Clemons as a low-end sleeper because Rob Gronkowski is not playing and I do not expect the deeper zones to be attacked as much by the Patriots. Despite that, Clemons will be on the field enough and see enough action to warrant the low-end sleeper designation.
Jason McCourty, Tennessee Titans (vs. Arizona)
Season stats: 45/7/0/8
Last week: 5/1/0/0
Arizona passing attempts per game/ranking: 36.2/Tied for 14th
Arizona passes defended allowed ranking: 6th
Arizona tackle opportunities allowed ranking: 19th
McCourty has a solid matchup against the Cardinals, who despite being in the middle of the pack in attempted passes per game, are sixth in the league in passes defended allowed. The Cardinals like to throw to their wide receivers and despite only ranking 14th in passing attempts per game, they have given up some big games to opposing cornerbacks. Consider McCourty a low-end sleeper and the only reason I am not ranking him higher is because he does not have an interception this year.
Deep Sleepers (For desperate owners only)
Josh Wilson, Washington (at Atlanta)
Season stats: 51/20/0/5
Last week: 3/1/0/0
Atlanta passing attempts per game/ranking: 41.0/3rd
Atlanta passes defended allowed ranking: Tied for 16th
Atlanta tackle opportunities allowed ranking: 23rd
Wilson faces the Falcons this week, a team that ranks third in attempted passes per game. Along with Washington, Atlanta has been one of the most disappointing teams in the league, but Washington is plagued by controversy and they seemed to quit on the field last week. With Kirk Cousins starting at quarterback, the Washington offense may spend less time on the field and that will give Wilson more opportunities to make plays. If you are desperate for a waiver wire-type defensive back, you could do a lot worse than Wilson.
