The pre-combine tight end edition was based around the prospects’ college production and estimated size and athleticism. Now, with the combine in the rear-view mirror, the final projection model board is coming into shape. Some players logged all the drills, some had limited participation, and others were limited by injury or not invited to Indianapolis. In summary, the next month or two will continue the information gathering from pro days and players doing some of the drills left with an ‘incomplete’ at the combine.
Shifts at the Top
The ‘big four’ remained there post-combine. It was a mixed bag in terms of what each player did, but the no player measured poorly enough to alter their overall grade in an extreme manner.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins was diagnosed with a stress fracture in his foot, limited him to the bench press and getting an accurate height and weight. With a potential two-month recovery time, it is a distinct possibility that he does not have pro day drill time before the NFL draft. His overall grade remains as the top major conference tight end in the class. With the cloud of the injury and a lack of exposure this draft season, ASJ is poised to be a value in early rookie and startup drafts for those that take the plunge.
Eric Ebron got a little bump with a very good 40-time of 4.60 (although his vertical jump was lagging below the average drafted tight end mark historically). Ebron is considered a lock to be a first round pick in the NFL draft and his overall score puts him as a middle-of-the-pack tight end compared to that subset of former prospects. Ebron has solid marks across the board. Comparing him to other first round picks his size, a poor man’s Kellen Winslow or in the neighborhood of Tyler Eifert a year ago fits the model well. When expanding the comparable search to all draft rounds, Ebron compares as a stronger prospect than names like Julius Thomas and Owen Daniels with similar characteristics.
Colt Lyerla had quite a bit on the line combine weekend. Much of that was off-camera with team interviews. On the field, Lyerla took a hit, but remained in this top group. Lyerla came in smaller than Eric Ebron, but his vertical and broad jump marks were in the top 5% of tight end prospects over the past 15 years. Lyerla has some of the largest hands in the class. Broken down into the various categories, Lyerla’s athleticism mark is second to A.C. Leonard among participants in the combine. Lyerla is not projected to be a day one or two draft pick, making him a target player within a tier, but likely outside the top drafted tight ends in this class. Comparable players are tough to find for Lyerla, the closest fits being a more athletic Ed Dickson or bigger and more athletic Jordan Reed on the optimistic side.
Jace Amaro came back to the pack after the combine. His marks are in the 50-70 range in size, athleticism, and production. Most of his comparable players are third or fourth round draft picks, which Amaro is projected to best by multiple rounds come draft day. In terms of overall score, Amaro fits well with Julius Thomas, Tony Moeaki, Fred Davis, and Anthony Fasano from years past. In terms of an arbitrage selection in this year’s class, C.J. Fiedorowicz is Amaro’s poor man’s version in the model. With an overall score closer to average than Ebron and ASJ, Amaro is more situationally-dependent to reach a high fantasy ceiling.
A.C. Leonard was not a well-known name pre-combine, but that changed in 4.50 seconds (his 40-time) at the combine. His overall score jumped up into the top tier with one of the best athletic performances of the weekend. At 6’2” Leonard fits the ‘move’ tight end role more than the classic mold, but his weight is on par with taller options like Eric Ebron. There is a wide spectrum of comparable players on Leonard’s list from a poor man’s Vernon Davis to a better version of Brandon Bostick. It is a good sign for a potential day three pick to have first rounders on his list like Davis and Daniel Graham, but the Brandon Bostick spectrum is far closer to realistic at the end of the day. None of his comparable players reached double-digits in PPR points-per-game in their first three seasons, increasing the likelihood that Leonard is a longer-term stash as a TE3/4 in leagues that accommodate that depth.
Crowded Second Tier
Joe Don Duncan remains an intriguing name without combine data or even a verified birthdate in the database. His production was off-the-charts, but getting accurate measurements and athletic drill data is vital for small school products. Hopefully he is healthy come his April 15 pro day.
Ryan Corbin, like Duncan, is a small schooler with an ‘incomplete’ on his resume. He was Duncan-light in terms of production and is unlikely to wow like A.C. Leonard with his athleticism. Corbin is another name to monitor on day three of the draft.
C.J. Fiedorowicz confirmed his average profile with a time in the mid-4.7s and middling or worse marks in the other drills. His overall score falls well below that of the top 3-4 prospects at the position. In terms of historical comparable players in the database, Anthony Fasano and a myriad of non-fantasy factor late-rounders fill up Fiedorowicz’s list.
No combine drills for Gator Hoskins, as he remains a short, but thick and (presumed) athletic pass-game option. Tough to find comparable players for Hoskins if he is less than 6’3”, but Travis Beckum, L.J. Smith, and a sprinkle of David Thomas are within reach on his list.
Crockett Gillmore showed well in the explosive drills (vertical and broad jumps), but had poor times in the agility drills (three-cone and short shuttle). His size is in the 70-80% range over the past 15 tight end draft classes, but his athleticism is a big question mark. Combining Gillmore’s size, athleticism, and production, he profiles as someone between fantasy afterthoughts and a more straight-line version of Zach Miller.
Like Hoskins, no drill work yet for Rob Blanchflower, who is another highly-productive tight end that performed off the beaten path. Bear Pascoe mirrors Blanchflower as a prospect with a lacking athletic profile to excel as a fantasy factor.
Long Shots
Xavier Grimble has the dimensions of an impactful NFL tight end, but does not have the estimated athleticism or college production to match. His woeful vertical and broad jumps were a disappointment. Names like Dion Sims and Anthony Hill inhabit Grimble’s recent comparable list, most being late-round draft picks.
A 4.87 40-time is not a death sentence looking at historical tight end prospects, but is certainly limits the fantasy upside of a player. Richard Rodgers did just that at the combine. His overall score took a tumble into the mid-40s, just like Xavier Grimble. A reason for hope would be Dwayne Allen in his comp list, the outlier to the Daniel Hardy, David Paulson, Brandon Myers, and Martrez Milner late-round names on the list. In the same category, Justin Perillo falls in the same category of ‘more production than athlete’ where it is an uphill climb to relevance at the next level.
Nick O’Leary is a long-shot to be a late riser up the rankings. His Florida State production was lacking and he is projected to be an unathletic smaller tight end, a pretty bad combination for fantasy owners. With a good showing at his pro day, O’Leary could get into the Brandon Myers-level of comparable prospects.
Troy Niklas is huge, a good blocker, and relatively young. In addition to that, he could be a day two pick in the draft. That is where the glowing praise ends. His athletic marks are very poor and his production at Notre Dame (based on age-weighted market share of the passing game) was woeful. Consider Niklas a much riskier (and poor man’s) version of Kyle Rudolph as Niklas has similar size and athleticism score, but will a dramatic difference in college production.
Off the Radar
Jacob Pedersen, Arthur Lynch, Marcel Jensen, and Jake Murphy all had low marks entering the combine weekend and did not do much to improve their prospect score. All mire in the 15-25 range (on a 1-100 scale) overall, a range where no tight end prospect to-date has turned into a fantasy-relevant option. Jeff Cumberland and David Ausberry are two notable names in recent seasons that remain on the fantasy fringe in the deepest of leagues. In short, only tight end-premium owners would venture this far down the list for waiver wire lottery tickets.
Final Dynasty Thoughts
Eric Ebron is the pretty girl in the room at the tight end party. With the buzz of Ebron going in the first half of the NFL draft's first round, Ebron is talked about as a mid-first round pick in rookie drafts. Considering the tempered expectations from the projection model and the lack of positional value in most league formats, Ebron provides little value at that price point compared to wide receivers and probably a running back or two come post-draft. Amaro and Seferian-Jenkins are looking like solid buys in the second round range of rookie drafts as value plays after Ebron is long gone. A.C. Leonard and Colt Lyerla are the athletic 'potential' plays ideally in the third round of rookie drafts.
