10 Quarterback Situations That Will Define Your Drafts in 2025
We've had full offensive projections live since February, making us one of the first, if not the first, fantasy football sites in the industry to publish detailed statistical outlooks. But when you release projections just weeks after the Super Bowl, you're forced to make a slew of assumptions. At that point, free agency and the NFL draft hadn't happened yet, and we didn't have much information about what the new offensive play-callers intended to do.
Since then, the landscape has become much clearer. We've also seen an onslaught of other analysts publish their expectations. The influx of opinions helps solidify a consensus, and that consensus heavily influences the average draft position (ADP) data we'll see as draft season approaches.
RELATED: See 6 Tight End Situations here.
Even with the benefit of hindsight, unanswered questions remain. Many won't be resolved until deep into training camp or the preseason. These gray areas are where the widest range of viewpoints emerge, and they are the very situations that can swing your fantasy draft. These are the spots where taking a stand matters most, and our goal is to help you gain an edge before you're on the clock.
Let's take a look at the key quarterback situations and where we stand versus consensus:
- Michael Penix Jr. (ATL) will be good enough to fuel the Falcons' skill players
- Caleb Williams (CHI) will thrive in Ben Johnson's offense
- Cleveland's (CLE) quarterback carousel clouds the outlook for everyone on the roster
- The Colts (IND) quarterback duel will hamstring the entire receiving corps
- J.J. McCarthy (MIN) will be a formidable replacement for Sam Darnold
- Tyler Shough (NO) better beat out Spencer Rattler, or you should fade the receivers
- Jaxson Dart (NYG) won't be a factor until late in the season
- Justin Fields (NYJ) is wildly overrated unless he becomes a totally different passer
- Aaron Rodgers (PIT) will ultimately sign with the Steelers
Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons
| Projections | Games | Comps | Atts | PaYds | PaTDs | INTs | Rushes | RuYds | RuTDs | FumLost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Footballguys Consensus | 16.0 | 335.0 | 522.5 | 3848 | 20.5 | 12.5 | 43.0 | 158 | 2.5 | 2.7 |
| Bob Henry | 16.0 | 335.0 | 520.0 | 3890 | 21.0 | 12.0 | 48.0 | 160 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| Jason Wood | 16.0 | 335.0 | 525.0 | 3806 | 20.0 | 13.0 | 38.0 | 156 | 2.0 | 4.0 |
Assumption: Penix will not be a fantasy star but will be good enough to support the current ADPs of his teammates
There's palpable excitement for Michael Penix Jr. taking over in Atlanta, and we share that enthusiasm. But in order for Drake London (ADP: WR9), Darnell Mooney (WR47), and Kyle Pitts (TE17) to deliver this year, Penix needs to show marked improvement from what we saw in three starts last season. He ranked QB50 on a per-game basis. If you don't believe Penix will improve or match our projections, you should avoid London in particular. We're not expecting heroics from Penix, especially since he's unlikely to contribute much as a runner, but if he can be accurate and decisive, the Falcons offense can at least maintain last year's production.
Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
| Projections | Games | Comps | Atts | PaYds | PaTDs | INTs | Rushes | RuYds | RuTDs | FumLost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Footballguys Consensus | 16.0 | 347.0 | 538.5 | 3837 | 24.5 | 9.5 | 78.5 | 432 | 2.0 | 3.4 |
| Bob Henry | 16.0 | 355.0 | 547.0 | 3805 | 26.0 | 8.0 | 85.0 | 490 | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| Jason Wood | 16.0 | 339.0 | 530.0 | 3869 | 23.0 | 11.0 | 72.0 | 374 | 2.0 | 5.0 |
Assumption: Ben Johnson will help Williams and the entire Bears offense realize its potential
Williams was one of the biggest disappointments at quarterback last year, finishing as QB22 on a per-game basis despite being drafted as a QB1 in many leagues. Consensus ADP (QB10) aligns with our projections (QB11), as most expect new head coach Ben Johnson to bring precision, rigor, and creativity to the offense, just as he did in Detroit. Williams has an enticing supporting cast and a rebuilt offensive line, so any lack of improvement will fall squarely on him. If Williams doesn't take a leap forward, the ADPs for DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and Colston Loveland will look like overpays.
Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, Shedeur Sanders, and Dillon Gabriel, Cleveland Browns
Bob Henry's Projections
| Quarterback | Games | Atts | Comps | INT | PaTDs | PaYds | Rushes | RuTDs | RuYds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 8.0 | 290.0 | 180.0 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 1910 | 28.0 | 1.0 | 95 |
| Joe Flacco | 7.0 | 250.0 | 158.0 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 1770 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 20 |
| Shedeur Sanders | 2.0 | 36.0 | 23.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 235 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 10 |
| Dillon Gabriel | 2.0 | 34.0 | 21.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 215 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 15 |
Jason Wood's Projections
| Quarterback | Games | Atts | Comps | INT | PaTDs | PaYds | Rushes | RuTDs | RuYds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 13.0 | 450.0 | 286.0 | 10.0 | 16.0 | 3105 | 25.0 | 1.0 | 75 |
| Kenny Pickett | 5.0 | 150.0 | 95.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 990 | 10.0 | 1.0 | 30 |
Assumption: The Browns quarterback situation is as messy and ineffectual as feared
My colleague Bob Henry sees all four quarterbacks playing this year, whereas I assume neither rookie sees the field, at least not until late in the season. Either way, the Browns' situation is a mess. Any team with four players vying for the starting job is destined to struggle. Unlike other questionable teams, the fantasy prospects for Browns receivers depend on which veteran wins the job. Joe Flacco has proven capable of unlocking downfield receivers, while Kenny Pickett has never consistently pulled the trigger or generated touchdowns. We recommend avoiding the roster at current ADP, aside from rookie running back Quinshon Judkins.