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In most dynasty leagues, this week marks the end of the regular or the start of the playoffs. That means playoff teams lining up their best matchups for a title run. That may be limited to picking up an extra defense or a handcuff if needed for title contenders. This article will focus on non-playoff teams, making up the rest of the league.
Cut the dead weight
One of the first things I look for on dynasty rosters when evaluating a league or team is dead weight. While some short-term ‘band aid’ players are warranted, in general they have no place late in the season especially for non-playoff teams. For the next weeks is the time for dynasty owners to get ‘lean and mean’ with their roster spots. Project out the bench players with questions like ‘what has to happen for this player to see an uptick in value before rookie draft time?’ If the narrative is long with a myriad of low-probability events and the player’s upside is not all that high as an end game, they need to go. Most dynasty teams I see have multiple players that fit those criteria. In addition to kickers and defenses, these are valuable roster spots for wait-and-see options. Instead of reacting to news, depth chart changes, and free agent moves in the coming months, a dynasty owner can be proactive and lock up players in that boat now, for free.
Going through just one of my dynasty leagues, 22-man rosters, 12-teams, typical starting requirements, I found the following ‘dead weight’ situations:
- One team has three defenses and Andre Caldwell rostered.
- One team has Jason Campbell as a third quarterback (behind Peyton and Foles) along with three defenses.
- Another has an open roster spot (has been like this for two weeks now) and two kickers (not playing matchups as a non-playoff team).
- Another non-playoff team is ‘stashing’ two defenses and two kickers.
- A non-playoff team has Davone Bess and two defenses (neither of which is very good).
- In addition to this list of five teams with glaring inefficiencies, two others have four (yes, four) quarterbacks in a 12-team, start-one league.
These are in a 22-roster league where the waiver wire is far more plentiful than a 25 or more roster format. Use these examples as a cautionary tale to question every roster spot on a team. Each has value and wasting one of them is a black eye to the franchise.
Once those roster spots are vacated, it is time to fill them. By position, here are possible candidates in a variety of league depths across the skill positions:
Quarterbacks
Stashes at the quarterback position are usually few and far between in typical dynasty leagues. The positional value lags in start-one formats and most, if not all, teams already have a quality backup. Trade value is fleeting for the position, which makes stashing a quarterback less ideal than the other skill positions.
Matt McGloin has been functional during his time as a starter and the Oakland receivers look much better with a quarterback that can throw on time with accuracy from the pocket. McGloin has not been declared the starter for 2014 or even through the rest of the regular season, but a worthy QB3 stash.
Brock Osweiler fits this mold on the shear possibility that Denver wins the Super Bowl and Peyton Manning hangs it up at the end of the season. The Broncos offense is loaded with weapons and Osweiler would step into an enviable opportunity as a first-year starter in 2014. Another perk is that Osweiler could be dropped in the offseason if that scenario does not play out as he turns into a long-term hold once again.
Jake Locker is by far the most likely quarterback to already be on a roster of this list. In more shallow leagues, he may be available. If teams have at most two quarterbacks on their depth chart, Locker is an ideal upside option as a QB2.
Running backs
C.J. Anderson is a flyer. Even if Knowshon Moreno is out of Denver (not a lock by any means) next season, Montee Ball will be first in line to be the starter. Anderson has the potential to be the primary backup and with Ball’s propensity this season, he could be in a Stevan Ridley-type situation in 2014. That narrative is worth a stash in leagues with 24 or more roster spots, or shallower leagues where a team lacks quality bench depth.
Latavius Murray should not be on waiver wires, but he is. The double bonus is Murray can be put on IR after picking him up. The word around Oakland is that the team in unlikely to be interested in resigning Darren McFadden in the offseason and Rashad Jennings is old and far from a locked-and-loaded lead back. Murray has the physical attributes to rise in value quickly with any offseason news that he is the primary backup or a possible starter.
While I am not a fan of Stepfan Taylor going by his physical attributes, the starting role in Arizona is wide open. Rashard Mendenhall is a free agent after this season and Andre Ellington is not a likely candidate for a full complement of starter’s touches. Taylor is a candidate to be that short-term bridge for early down work.
Wide receivers
Brian Quick has mired in a St.Louis wide receiver group this year that has been a glorified platoon outside of the steady snaps of Chris Givens week-to-week. Small school receivers are typically slow to develop and Quick is finishing up year two in the NFL. As the only red zone threat in the passing game (Austin Pettis another option), Quick should not be throw aside in a dynasty setting like he has been in many leagues.
Da’Rick Rogers finally saw the field this past week for a decimated Colts receiving corps and drew a pass interference penalty against quality cover man Alterraun Verner of Tennessee. Rogers has a golden opportunity over the final four games to see the field and be the prototypical outside receiver that, without Reggie Wayne, the offense sorely lacks. Even with Reggie Wayne back in 2014, Rogers holds his own destiny to starting on the opposite side of the field with T.Y. Hilton in the slot next season.
A.J. Jenkins was an afterthought this season and was remembered primarily for the trade of first-round busts, swapping locales with Jonathan Baldwin. Baldwin has pretty much flamed out in San Francisco, but Jenkins made a couple of key plays against Denver in Week 13. With just Dwayne Bowe of note in the Kansas City receiver group, Jenkins has the situational opportunity to carve out a role from now until Week one of next season.
Nick Toon is a player that has oscillated in value quite a bit since entering the NFL. Kenny Stills has taken the spotlight as the young up-and-coming Saints receiver this season. Toon has been a healthy scratch at times. His still profiles as a more athletic replacement to Marques Colston down the line. Explosive passing offenses are ideal places to take a shot on a young receiver. Like Da’Rick Rogers, Toon is a player to stash and monitor for offseason developments at the end of a dynasty bench.
Tight ends
Joseph Fauria has been Mr.Touchdown this season. I projected him as, at a minimum, a lethal red zone option when he came out of UCLA this past spring. As a rookie, Fauria has been exactly that. He is super-sized with giant hands and playing behind Brandon Pettigrew, who has more bad games than good in the final year of his contract. Fauria has eaten single coverage alive in close quarters and even been used on seam routes outside of the red zone. Given the explosive nature of the Detroit offense, the possibility of Pettigrew being gone next season, and Fauria’s success in limited playing time, the rookie should not be on waiver wires heading into the offseason.
Brandon Bostick has little on his NFL resume, but Jermichael Finley’s uncertain future as an impending free agent and the opportunity to be the starting tight end with Aaron Rodgers fuels Bostick as a quality stash. Without a notable free agent signing at the position or a highly-drafted rookie coming in, Bostick will gain plenty of value in the coming months.
Travis Kelce was a trendy sleeper from this year’s rookie crop. There was little to no competition at tight end in Kansas City and Alex Smith is not a big ‘press the issue downfield’ type quarterback. Kelce unfortunately injured his knee in the preseason and was an early scratch for the year. As a third tight end on a dynasty roster, Kelce is well worth holding into the offseason to monitor the depth chart and his injury recovery.
Levine Toilolo has more situational value than individual potential. A Tony Gonzalez retirement would trigger a significant rise in Toilolo’s value this offseason. That possibility to flip Toilolo for a tidy profit in a matter of months is worth a final roster spot. The pairing with Matt Ryan and consistent single coverage because of Julio Jones and Roddy White provide plenty of production upside for Toilolo.
Luke Willson is my new Ladarius Green. Green’s stock is already inside of the top-five tight ends according to dynastyleaguefootball.com’s Ryan McDowell doing the leg work on a twitter poll of dynasty owners a week or so ago. That ship has sailed to get crazy value from Green, who is likely to be a top-60 pick in startups come January. Willson is the next Green. Willson is one of the most athletic tight end prospects in the last decade and only Vernon Davis is clearly a tier above. Willson played behind Vance McDonald at Rice in college, which is hardly a ding to his resume as McDonald was a second round pick by a quality franchise in San Francisco. Willson has seen plenty of playing time as rookie (330 snaps through Week 13 according to profootballfocus.com), which is comparable to Zach Ertz’ total for the season. Willson is TE24 in PFF pass rating and TE20 in run-blocking, ahead of Rob Gronkowski most notably. Zach Miller has been decent as the starter this season, but is due $13 million of the next two seasons with limited dead money on the deal. Willson is the under-the-radar name at the position to know over the next 24 months.
Adrien Robinson was once a highly sought after dynasty commodity as the proclaimed ‘Jason Pierre-Paul of tight ends’ by the Giants brass. Brandon Myers has been forgettable this season and is on a rather expensive player-option deal after this year. A foot injury has kept Robinson out up to this point in the season, but could return in the coming weeks to the active roster. Robinson requires at least 24 roster spots to stash, but is one of the more appealing combinations of individual talent and future situation at the position.
