Last week in ‘The New Reality’ the focus was on the fantasy lifespan and rate of decline at the running back position. This week, the wide receivers get their turn.
Many of the age decline curves out there focus on all players at a position. That is certainly the easiest method as a profootballreference.com search on each age will get enough data to get a chart together in a short amount of time. The issue I have with that method is the validity of it. How relevant is the career arc of replacement level performers? If a receiver tops out as a top-50 option in their peak season in fantasy terms, does that matter? The parameters for this study focus on receivers that had at least one season of 12 points-per-game in PPR scoring. That is typically in the WR30-40 range in a given season, one that can be a solid WR3 or flex play. Like the running backs, this study includes all receivers with a qualifying season since 1990, totaling almost 150 players.
Now the fun part, the results by age year and the percentage of career production left in the tank for the best receivers of the past 25+ years:
| Age | Production Remaining (%) | Age | Production Remaining (%) |
| 21 | 100 | 28 | 50 |
| 22 | 98 | 29 | 40 |
| 23 | 97 | 30 | 30 |
| 24 | 95 | 31 | 20 |
| 25 | 85 | 32 | 15 |
| 26 | 75 | 33 | 10 |
| 27 | 60 | 34 | 5 |
It is a far slower decline for the receivers than running backs on a per season basis. The big drop is from age 26 to 27, 15% of the career total above baseline, but just 10% per year through age 31 after that. Putting the age charts for receivers and running backs side-by-side makes the differences even more noticeable than one would assume:
| Age | RB Production Remaining (%) | WR Production Remaining (%) |
| 21 | 100 | 100 |
| 22 | 98 | 98 |
| 23 | 95 | 97 |
| 24 | 81 | 95 |
| 25 | 66 | 85 |
| 26 | 51 | 75 |
| 27 | 36 | 60 |
| 28 | 20 | 50 |
| 29 | 14 | 40 |
| 30 | 8 | 30 |
| 31 | 4 | 20 |
| 32 | 1 | 15 |
| 33 | 0 | 10 |
| 34 | 0 | 5 |
The big difference is the rate of decline. Running backs fall off at a 15% clip in their prime, while receivers are closer to 10% on average. The backs basically need to be established options by the age of 23, while receivers have a little extra rope until the age of 24-25. The comfy factor with receivers from a dynasty perspective is their obvious longevity. Even at age 28, Jordy Nelson for example this year, half of their career production above baseline remains in front of them. Compare that to a 28-year-old running back with just 20% of their production remaining. To make the equation balanced between the positions, a 28-year-old running back (think Chris Johnson, Reggie Bush, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew this season) is on par with a 31-year-old receiver, Roddy White being the noteworthy comparable option in 2013.
It is a far slower decline for the receivers than running backs on a per season basis. The big drop is from age 26 to 27, 15% of the career total above baseline, but just 10% per year through age 31 after that. Putting the age charts for receivers and running backs side-by-side makes the differences even more noticeable than one would assume:
From a dynasty team-building angle, it is easy to see why a young horse at wide receiver is a preferred method of drafting early in a startup. A receiver is essentially gains two years of career production by their mid-20s and eventually three-to-four additional seasons when they approach their late 20s and early 30s. It may seem like a minor difference when comparing the first year or two of a dynasty league’s existence, but the time value of these choices become far more pronounced as the years pass by.
Examples from 2012
Here are the running backs with an average draft position in rounds 2-4 last May:
- Adrian Peterson – Emerged as a short-term value, but at 28 years old his value is already cracking
- Trent Richardson – Now one of the most valued dynasty assets
- Doug Martin – In his prime, no worries
- C.J. Spiller – Should maintain his value through 2014
- Jamaal Charles – I will be advising to sell this coming offseason as a 27-year-old
- Marshawn Lynch – Coming off career year, Christine Michael behind him, court date looms in December
- DeMarco Murray – Make or break year to stay healthy
- Steven Jackson – Value free fall coming within next 12 months
- Darren McFadden – Already a late third rounder, I predict fifth rounder or later in 2014
- Maurice Jones-Drew – Has fallen two rounds in 12 months, three straight years of declining ADP
- Matt Forte – Has not had a first round startup ADP since 2009
- Darren Sproles – Hard to maintain value as a 30-yard-old back, regardless of situation and role
- Ryan Mathews – Four rounds of ADP decline in last 12 months, tough to see rebound
- Ahmad Bradshaw – Luckily signed with Colts to salvage any short-term value at this point
Just a year removed from drafting these 14 running backs and I would lump them into these categories:
Safe studs
Productive, but cracks in value within view
Hoping for an RB1 season
Value Ready to bottom out
Out of 14 backs in that all-important ADP range, three (21%) were homeruns, three were good picks (21%), six already need replacement plans (42%), and two (14%) were essentially busts that keep dynasty owners up at night.
Here are the wide receivers in the same ADP range a year ago:
- Julio Jones – One of the most valuable assets in dynasty
- Dez Bryant – One of the most valuable assets in dynasty
- Demaryius Thomas – One of the most valuable assets in dynasty
- A.J. Green – One of the most valuable assets in dynasty
- Percy Harvin – was a solid second-round startup pick prior to injury
- Victor Cruz – Status Quo from a year ago
- Brandon Marshall – ADP rose almost two rounds from 2012, plenty of room for short-term age decline
- Hakeem Nicks – Still a third-round ADP, but potential drop with another injury-riddled season
- Kenny Britt – Drop of three rounds in last 12 months, but buzz building and free agency could help
- Larry Fitzgerald – Typically a slow value decline for productive receivers in age 30-32 range
- Jordy Nelson – Maintained value the last 12 months
- Dwayne Bowe – Maintained value plus has his best coach-quarterback tandem of career
- Mike Wallace – On verge of big value decline if he fails to regain breakout form
- Vincent Jackson – Underrated, maintained value, and in line for big target load this season
- Roddy White – Has one more season before a big drop in ADP
- Andre Johnson – Similar to White, age 33 (Johnson’s 2014 season) will be a be a big value loss
- Miles Austin – Big opportunity for rebound as he looks healthy following six-round drop
- Marques Colston – Hanging on after two-round drop, likely two more this coming off-season
- Antonio Brown – Chance for a glut of targets to hang inside top-75 for one more season, but unlikely
- Greg Jennings – Huge drop in value leaving Green Bay, hitting 30 years old, and inheriting Christian Ponder
- Wes Welker – Dropped three rounds of ADP, has more competition for targets than ever, and any decline of phone-booth quickness will be the end of his effectiveness
- Jeremy Maclin – Unfortunate injury, now a complete unknown with free agency looming after lost 2013
One year later, I would group these 22 receivers this way:
Cornerstone Players
Good shot at top-30 value in 2014 startups
Steady, but Short-term options
Boom-Bust Potential
The Clock is ticking to salvage any value
To sum up the receiver group that is four home runs (18%), ten picks (45%) an owner would be satisfied with a year later and not needing to address a replacement yet, three picks (14%) that moved down the depth chart for the roster still with potential, and three (14%) that are looking like clear-cut regretful selections.
Pairing the groups together, here are the results a year later:
| RB | WR | |
| Homeruns | 22% | 18% |
| Steady | 21% | 45% |
| Falling | 42% | 14% |
| Disappointments | 14% | 14% |
The sum of the first two categories for each position really gives an indication of the risk-reward nature of heavily investing in the running back position early in a startup draft: 43% for backs compared to 63% for receivers. When breaking down dynasty rosters a year removed from the initial draft, the two key elements I look for are how many clear declining players did an owner select in the first four or five rounds AND did they find lightning in a bottle with any late-round picks? I will have future articles on these two topics in-depth in the coming months. A summary for now is that on average going with receivers as a general guideline early in a startup will provide a dynasty owner with more wiggle room in the initial seasons to maintain their overall roster value.
On to the choices at running back and wide receiver for dynasty owners this season:
Current Examples
Running backs with a current ADP in rounds 2-4, courtesy of Ryan McDowell at dynastyleaguefootball.com:
- Alfred Morris
- David Wilson
- Marshawn Lynch
- Lamar Miller
- Matt Forte
- Chris Johnson
- LeVeon Bell
- DeMarco Murray
- Giovani Bernard
- Stevan Ridley
- Reggie Bush
- Darren McFadden
- Maurice Jones-Drew
- Steven Jackson
- Darren Sproles
- Eddie Lacy
- Montee Ball
Based on their age and talent, David Wilson, Lamar Miller, Giovani Bernard, and Eddie Lacy stick out as the high-probability plays to maintain or increase their value. On the flip side, banking on Marshawn Lynch, Darren McFadden, Maurice Jones-Drew, or Steven Jackson to maintain their value is not for the faint of heart.
Same ADP Range for Wide Receivers:
- Demaryius Thomas
- Randall Cobb
- Brandon Marshall
- Victor Cruz
- Larry Fitzgerald
- Roddy White
- Vincent Jackson
- Hakeem Nicks
- Josh Gordon
- Andre Johnson
- Jordy Nelson
- Danny Amendola
- Dwayne Bowe
Demaryius Thomas and Randall Cobb (moreso Thomas) are high-floor assets for the next year. Josh Gordon’s name is in flashing lights as the potential riser into the top-20 discussion in 2014 drafts. The rest are older options just hoping to maintain or see a gradual decline in the coming 12 months with another solid season and avoiding a serious injury.
Any comments, questions, or suggestions for future articles can be directed to Chad Parsons via email at parsons@footballguys.com or on twitter @ChadParsonsNFL.