Brandon Aiyuk and 8 More Overrated WRs to Avoid

First, let's talk about average draft position (ADP).

ADP shows where players are typically being selected across many fantasy drafts, giving you a sense of the consensus value for each player. Our Consensus ADP takes this a step further. We combine the ADPs of several sites into one. We also only allow sites with quality ADP to be factored into the overall ranking.

RELATED: See 6 Underrated Wide Receivers here

We asked our staff to compare wide receiver ADP with our projections to identify wide receivers available in the top half of your draft who should underperform their draft position.

Nine overrated wide receivers quickly gathered interest. See what our staff has to say about each player.

Overrated WR Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers

• Current ADP: WR46
• FBG Projections: WR71

Jason Wood: I'd consider myself a Brandon Aiyuk supporter and believe he's far and away the 49ers' best wide receiver when healthy. Unfortunately, he's not currently healthy, and head coach Kyle Shanahan has already acknowledged that Aiyuk will begin the season on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list. It's tough to draft a receiver you know won't be available for at least a month, if not longer.

Further complicating matters, while Aiyuk recovers, quarterback Brock Purdy will have more time to build on last year's Jauan Jennings breakout and get Ricky Pearsall more integrated into the offense. That chemistry could shift the pecking order, even after Aiyuk returns.

Aiyuk has league-winning upside as a waiver pickup later in the season, but it's going to be difficult to justify rostering him in 12-team leagues on draft day.

Matt Waldman: I admire Aiyuk's route game, but his midseason ACL injury places him on a timeline that will disrupt his 2025 season. We have seen the likes of Adrian Peterson return to form less than a year after surgery, but most athletes require more than a full season to regain their peak powers.

It's not that the player hasn't regained his strength and explosion. It's the rehabbed body part's ability to recover from the trauma of contact and high-volume stress week in and week out.

This is why fans and media get excited about workout drills or good showings early in the year, only for the player to fade as the season progresses. You can apply this to Rashee Rice as well.

Meng Song: A general rule of thumb is to be wary of players returning from major injuries, and Brandon Aiyuk‘s fantasy profile has multiple red flags heading into 2025. The first is that he tore his MCL in addition to his ACL, which raises additional concerns.

Additionally, Aiyuk didn't undergo surgery until mid-November, which places his return-to-play timeline at nine to 10 months, sometime in mid-August or September. This puts him at risk of not being ready to start the season, potentially burning a roster spot for multiple weeks.

Beyond Aiyuk's actual return to the field, there's also the fact that return to play does not equal return to performance, as aptly put by Stephania Bell. Most athletes returning from ACL surgery don't return to elite performance level until their second season back, and 66 percent of wide receivers never return beyond 85 percent of pre-injury production.

And finally, what exactly does Aiyuk's return to pre-injury production look like? In six fully healthy games in 2024 before injury, Aiyuk's 9.7 PPR points per game ranked 55th among wide receivers. Yeah…I think I'll pass.

Julia Papworth: We all want to believe in a bounce-back season from Aiyuk, after a 2024 one marred by issues. First, he held out for a new contract, had a horrible start to the season, and then suffered an ACL injury. He finished the season with 374 yards on 47 receptions and no touchdowns.

With an ADP in the 40s, my belief in Aiyuk is nowhere near that strong. First of all, there is no guarantee when he will even take the field, having injured both his ACL and MCL. Although reports have been optimistic, Aiyuk could easily start the season on the PUP.

Head coach Kyle Shanahan confused us enough last year with the injury status of Christian McCaffrey, so I have a tough time taking his injury prognosis regarding players at face value. And do the Niners really need to rush Aiyuk back?

Ricky Pearsall is poised for a sophomore breakout after a strong finish to last year. Jauan Jennings continues to be vastly undervalued, Kittle remains a beast, and not to mention the return of McCaffrey. Pair it with the easiest strength of schedule in the league, and I believe we will see the team take their time with Aiyuk.

Jeff Blaylock: Brandon Aiyuk is recovering from a November surgery to repair the torn ACL and MCL he suffered in Week 7 of last season. He will likely begin the season on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list, and he may be out until midseason. Once he returns, he will compete for targets against not only wide receivers Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall but also running back Christian McCaffrey and tight end George Kittle.

Aiyuk posted back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons in 2022 and 2023, during which he was the WR15 and WR13, respectively, in point-per-reception (PPR) scoring. His 2024 season was already trending downward before the knee injury ended his season. He caught just over half of his targets, easily the lowest of his five-year career, and he failed to score a touchdown. Aside from a 147-yard performance in Week 5, he averaged fewer than three catches and 38 yards per game.

His ADP suggests fantasy managers have been discounting, if not outright ignoring, his injury or lackluster performance before he got injured. Aiyuk is only 27, and our injury expert, Adam Hutchison, likes his post-recovery outlook. He could be a value in drafts this year, but not anywhere near his ADP.

Overrated WR Garrett Wilson, New York Jets

• Current ADP: WR13
• FBG Projections: WR25

Mauricio Gutierrez: Life as a wide receiver in New York might just become like trying to catch a cab in Times Square at rush hour. Garrett Wilson is about to find out what that means with Justin Fields throwing him the ball instead of Aaron Rodgers.

Yes, the chemistry from their Ohio State days is there. Yes, Davante Adams is gone, and the Jets suddenly have 36.3% of their targets up for grabs. Wilson could soak up a monster 30% target share without breaking a sweat.

But here's the rub: What's the quality of those targets? We've seen DJ Moore survive with Fields in Chicago, and Wilson is better equipped to handle some inaccurate missiles. Still, if you think New York pizza slices are hit or miss, wait until you see Fields' deep throws; last year, he had a very low 27.3% completion rate on throws over 20 yards. 

Wilson is being priced almost at his ceiling; it's almost like paying $30 for a tourist hot dog in Times Square. I like him as a rock-solid WR2... but expecting almost Top 12 magic every week might leave you disappointed on Sundays.

Matt Waldman: There's a romantic notion in the "fantasy sphere" that the reuniting of Wilson with Justin Fields is going to raise both players' games. 

Quick Question: Would Derek Carr become elite if he reunited with Davante Adams?

Are you feeling me? If you're an Ohio State Homer, probably not, but let's face facts: Fields had decent stats in Pittsburgh, but his situational field management, on-time processing of coverage, and fumbles got him benched. 

Garrett Wilson isn't fixing this. Playing Purdue, Indiana, and Michigan State will, but it isn't going to happen. 

Wilson will lead the Jets in receiving and likely in every category. I doubt it will be DJ Moore's 1,300-yard and 8-score effort with Fields. Expect another 1,000-1,100 yards with 4-6 scores. That's good starter value, but not the expected peak numbers that are being wishcast.

Julia Papworth: When Garrett Wilson came into the league, we anticipated the show of talent we all saw during his college years at Ohio State. Unfortunately, due to various reasons, including quarterback play, Wilson has been unable to truly let his talent speak for itself.

He has been adequate for fantasy, making his hay through volume. Wilson had 154 targets last season, the third most in the league behind only Ja'Marr Chase and Malik Nabers, but only had a catch percentage of 66.4%, which is 28th among wide receivers with at least 80 targets.

Additionally, Wilson has never been a prolific touchdown scorer. Last year he came down with seven, but that is the highest in his short career. He has only had 14 career touchdowns in 51 games. And now Wilson has to adjust to another quarterback with Justin Fields rolling into town.

Fields has never been known for his passing, so now, Wilson managers might not even be able to rely on his volume to get them through. An ADP in the teens is banking on an outlier touchdown season from Wilson, and I just cannot commit to it at this cost.

Andy Hicks: Garrett Wilson must curse his luck sometimes. He has proven worthy of his 10th overall pick from the 2022 draft. Unfortunately, he has been cursed by underwhelming quarterback play and poor Jets teams. The play from Zach Wilson in the young wide receiver's first two seasons was especially egregious.

A 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers managed to get Garrett Wilson into the bottom-end fantasy WR1 category for receivers. Now, Wilson gets a player with a lot to prove as a passing quarterback in Justin Fields. Wilson is an elite receiver, but without the touchdowns and yardage he is capable of, he is being judged on talent rather than likely production.

Rating him near where he finished last season is problematic. A quarterback likely to get the best of Wilson is not on the roster in 2025. The good thing about taking Wilson is that he has a relatively high floor for this season. But getting bottom-end WR2 production isn't what you expect when you consider taking him on and expect more. Draft picks should match or exceed your expected stats from the draft slot. With Wilson, you are likely to have them fall short.

Overrated WR Tre Harris, Los Angeles Chargers

• Current ADP: WR53
• FBG Projections: WR72

Jason Wood: Greg Roman's offense is nothing if not predictable. Last year, we cautioned that the Chargers' offense would shift dramatically, regardless of how talented Justin Herbert is as a thrower. We also highlighted that Roman's system has never consistently produced more than one fantasy-relevant wide receiver. That means, barring an injury to Ladd McConkey, the rest of the pass catchers aren't worth your attention.

Tre Harris may be the long-term answer alongside McConkey, but he still has to beat out Mike Williams and Quentin Johnston first. Harris is more talented than either, but even once he climbs into the No. 2 role in Los Angeles, his fantasy value will be limited.

In traditional formats, the volume likely won't be there. He's more viable in best ball leagues, where you can benefit from the occasional long touchdown and boom week without needing to guess when it's coming.

Ben Cummins: Tre Harris was drafted in the second round after putting up 65 catches for 935 yards and 10 touchdowns at Louisiana Tech in 2022, 54 receptions for 985 yards and 8 touchdowns at Ole Miss in 2023, and 60 grabs for 1,030 yards and 7 touchdowns in just eight games last season. He stands at 6-foot-2 tall and posted a strong 38.5" vertical and a 10'5" broad jump. There is a lot to be excited about, but drafters are taking things a bit too far.

The Chargers leaned more heavily on the passing game as the season progressed last year, as their running backs, J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, wore down. They've reloaded now with first-round pick Omarion Hampton and free agent signing Najee Harris.

And as much as many drafters likely want Quentin Johnston to go away, do not expect that to happen. Johnston has had a disappointing beginning to his NFL career when factoring in his first-round draft capital, but that doesn't take away the 55 receptions for 711 yards and 8 touchdowns he produced last season. Like Harris, Johnston is tall (6-foot-2) and can jump (40.5" vertical and 11'02" broad).

Jeff Bell: Harris has been anointed the WR2 in the Chargers offense by the consensus. In reality, he is likely closer to WR4. Despite the drops, the coaching staff has been consistently enamored with Quentin Johnston. It's not surprising that Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman would appreciate a player of Johnston's size and athleticism.

Justin Herbert has a strong connection with Mike Williams, who should have a bounceback in a real football sense even if he does not get there in fantasy. The more significant factor is likely the additions of Omarion Hampton and Najee Harris.

The Chargers ranked 27th in pass attempts in 2024, shrinking the available passing pie. This is Ladd McConkey's passing attack, and the other receivers are likely to struggle in creating fantasy utility.

Matt Waldman: The fantasy community is missing the point about Harris. It's not whether Harris can be better than Quentin Johnston immediately. It's whether Greg Roman's offense will make Harris a priority target worthy of fantasy production. 

It's unlikely. Roman has always run his passing game through slot receivers, flanker/slot combos, and tight ends. He attacks the middle of the field in the passing game to complement the ground game. 

Harris is an outside receiver with a promising boundary game and good skills after the catch. He's still a work in progress at the line of scrimmage when working routes against tight coverage and to the inside. 

Roman, under Jim Harbaugh, installed an offense that changed the run/pass balance by 7 percent more in the run's favor, and I doubt they are finished until they reach a 50/50 equilibrium. It means cutting the rate of passing down by another 4-5 percent from 2024. 

Harris is, at best, the third option in a passing game that isn't dynamic. I know we want Justin Herbert back as a fantasy asset, but Jim Harbaugh won't relent unless Herbert runs a lot more -- and that's not his game.

Overrated WR Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers

• Current ADP: WR27
• FBG Projections: WR34

Sigmund Bloom: Receivers like Brian Thomas Jr., Ladd McConkey, and Malik Nabers showed us last year that rookies can be instant impact players at the position. But for every Nabers, there's a Marvin Harrison Jr.. For every Thomas, there's a Rome Odunze. For every McConkey, there's a Keon Coleman.

Which side of this dichotomy will McMillan fall on? Consider that Nabers, Thomas, and McConkey did not have any serious competition as the #1 target in their pass offense. McMillan has Adam Thielen, who was Bryce Young's main man during his late-season renaissance, and second-year receivers Jalen Coker and Xavier Legette, who will be more seasoned (and hopefully healthier in Legette's case).

McMillan isn't going to walk into a #1 wide receiver role, and he will have to earn targets in a pass offense that was working well without him in November and December. He'll also be delayed from operating as a big slot by Thielen's presence, and have to match up more often with the fastest, longer outside corners, which could give him some growing pains. Don't get caught up trying to find this year's breakout rookie receiver in redraft, when there just might not be one.

Mauricio Gutierrez: Did you know that the Wright Brothers' first flight took place in North Carolina? For many years now, the Panthers haven't even come close to flying as high as they did. Bryce Young showed flashes late last season, so at least there's hope that the Panthers will sprout wings, become a mythical creature, and start flying. Okay, probably not. Back to reality.

McMillan is, without a doubt, one of the most talented rookie receivers in this class. There may be rookies who are usually exceptional and produce from their first year. I'm not sure McMillan can be one. Is he really going to be Young's primary weapon from day one?

His versatility will keep him on the field. His route-running, size, and catch radius are NFL-ready. But will that translate immediately into reliable fantasy production? That's where the doubts creep in.

Rookie WRs, even great ones, can be volatile. Is he worth drafting as a near WR2 when more proven names are available in the same range? For me, that price is uncomfortable. Love the talent. But the consistency needed for a Top 30 WR finish in year one? That's a gamble you better be ready to take.

Maurile Tremblay: Tetairoa McMillan looks like the alpha Carolina has lacked, yet his 2025 fantasy outlook is shakier than the draft buzz suggests. Rookie receivers need volume and accuracy, and neither is guaranteed in Charlotte.

Bryce Young's second season produced only 2,403 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, and 6.2 yards per attempt, which is bottom-tier efficiency. Dave Canales' offense ranked 23rd in scoring (20.1 points per game) and hovered around 32 pass attempts a week, so there is no high-octane funnel to prop up a newcomer.

Even if Carolina throws more, targets are crowded. Last year's first-rounder, Xavier Legette, logged 49 rookie catches, possession staple Adam Thielen still hogs underneath looks, tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders is drawing praise at minicamp, and slot specialist Hunter Renfrow just signed on.

McMillan, therefore, must win on efficiency, which could be a problem for a player who relied on contested catches to overcome a lack of elite-level separation ability in college.

McMillan will have to develop timing with an undersized quarterback behind an offensive line that still endured six-sack meltdowns late last year. That could take a season or two, meaning that his floor as a rookie is sits beneath more established receivers with a similar ADP.

Overrated WR George Pickens, Dallas Cowboys

• Current ADP: WR31
• FBG Projections: WR41

Jason Wood: The delta here is entirely based on a misconception about the Cowboys' run/pass ratio in 2025. Most are incorrectly assuming that Brian Schottenheimer will maintain the prior system since he was the offensive coordinator under departed coach Mike McCarthy.

But the reality is that Schottenheimer got the job over McCarthy because of Dallas' desire to adapt and get over the playoff hump.

I don't think it was a smart coaching change, but regardless of the outcome, we can be confident that Schottenheimer intends to make Dallas a run-heavy, ball-control offense. Quarterback Dak Prescott's projected passing attempts should drop significantly from historic levels, which makes betting on any receiver other than CeeDee Lamb much riskier.

If we're wrong and Dallas ends up throwing 620 or more times this season, then Pickens is fine at ADP. But if we're right, you'll want to avoid him at cost, no matter your league format.

Andy Hicks: Pittsburgh has a methodology for drafting wide receivers under Mike Tomlin. Draft highly talented, but problematic guys at considerable value in the draft. Use them, get great production on rookie contracts, and move on.

Even those who did get a second contract with the Steelers flame out on other teams. Antonio Brown, Chase Claypool, Diontae Johnson, James Washington, Santonio Holmes, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Martavis Bryant, etc. We have to go to Emmanuel Sanders and Mike Wallace to find players who left Pittsburgh and were successful to a degree elsewhere.

George Pickens has looked explosive at times, disinterested at others. Pittsburgh had seen enough of the downside and traded him to the Cowboys for a relative song. Dallas gets a talented wide receiver to play opposite CeeDee Lamb.

In the final year of his rookie contract, Pickens finds himself in a problematic situation as well. An underwhelming hire at head coach in Brian Schottenheimer, with a background not likely to contribute to high production in the passing game. Dak Prescott is in a crucial year as well. Pickens does have some value in fantasy drafts, but the downside of taking him is much more likely to occur.

Overrated WR Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs

• Current ADP: WR20
• FBG Projections: WR30

Gary Davenport: There may not be a more confusing wide receiver to me this year than Rice. He's the player I hope desperately someone else takes at ADP so I don't wind up making the bad decision to draft him.

Did Rice go on a rip in the leadup to Kansas City's win in Super Bowl LVIII? Yes—after a regular season (you know, what matters to us) in which he barely cleared 100 targets and was a high-end WR3. Then Rice was on a top-12 pace (which has brought about this atmosphere of Twitterpation—a Twittersphere, if you will) until he got hurt a month into the season.

His draft slot is somewhere between those two benchmarks, because this is the year Rice finally puts it together. Targets. Yards. Chunky Soup Commercials.

Except that the Chiefs have become progressively more conservative offensively over the past few years because the offensive line is arguably the team's biggest weakness. And because Travis Kelce isn't living in Willy Wonka's factory with his brother and Taylor Swift yet. And because Xavier Worthy was the only good thing for the Chiefs in Super Bowl LIX. And because Marquise Brown, if you're piling on.

Matt Waldman: My podcast partner, Brandon Angelo, from Angelo's Analysis, is an athletic trainer to professional athletes. He had concerns about Kirk Cousins last spring that were rooted in his job knowledge. He has concerns about Rice's ability to withstand the punishment of the game this year. 

My ranking of Xaviery Worthy and Rice is based on this. I have Worthy moving into Rice's role once Andy Reid sees that Rice can't sustain his athletic upside this year. If you want to bet against this, then flip-flop where I have valued Worthy and Rice.

Overrated WR Jayden Higgins, Houston Texans

• Current ADP: WR54
• FBG Projections: WR69

Jason Wood: Jayden Higgins has the talent and draft pedigree to step into the lineup alongside Nico Collins sooner rather than later. But in 2025, he'll likely have to take a back seat to Christian Kirk, at least initially.

There's a world where the Texans' passing attack reawakens and supports multiple fantasy-relevant receivers. But barring an injury to Collins or Kirk, Higgins' time is more likely to come in 2026 and beyond, not this season.

Overrated WR Ricky Pearsall, San Francisco 49ers

• Current ADP: WR43
• FBG Projections: WR54

Jeff Blaylock: Ricky Pearsall is being drafted as though he will be the 49ers' second-leading receiver, and he may well be. However, that role does not come with the targets one would expect for a typical WR2. When healthy, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and Jauan Jennings will be the 49ers' top three targets. 

That leaves Pearsall as the fourth option, at best. Last season, only five players who were their team's fourth options exceeded 50 receptions, and no wide receiver operating as the fourth option exceeded 150 PPR fantasy points. Brandon Aiyuk is expected to be healthy around midseason, and he will compete with Pearsall for targets once he hits the field.

The former first-round pick missed the beginning of his rookie season as he recovered from a gunshot wound. He played 11 games, starting four, and tallied 31 receptions on 46 targets for 400 yards and three touchdowns, finishing as the WR82 in point-per-reception (PPR) formats.

Pearsall is likely out of team activities until training camp due to a hamstring injury, which could open the door for Jordan Watkins, whom the 49ers selected in the fourth round of this year's NFL draft, to make a case for playing time.

Overrated WR Calvin Ridley, Tennessee Titans

• Current ADP: WR32
• FBG Projections: WR40

Maurile Tremblay: Calvin Ridley's 1,017-yard box score masks serious warning signs for 2025. He needed 113 targets to reach 1,017 yards, catching just 64 of those targets with only four touchdowns, matching a career-low.

His weekly volatility included an eight-catch, 143-yard eruption in Week 13 but also a three-game stretch totaling just two catches for 14 yards. At 30 (he turns 31 in December), wide receivers typically begin their efficiency slide, and Ridley's 8 drops, combined with a middling 83.8 passer rating when targeted, already hint at age-related decline.

The environment around him is even shakier. Tennessee finished 27th in scoring offense last season. They now hand the offense to rookie Cam Ward, the No. 1 pick, with inconsistent accuracy. Brian Callahan has said he wants a balanced backfield, leaning on Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears to protect the rookie quarterback, capping total pass volume.

When the Titans do throw, targets will be spread wider: the front office imported veteran Tyler Lockett, depth piece Van Jefferson, and two day-three receiver picks. Ridley won't enjoy a monopoly on looks even as defensive coordinators treat him as the top coverage priority. The aging, inconsistent wide receiver now faces reduced volume, rookie-quarterback volatility, and fresh target competition.