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BUYING
Aaron Rodgers QB GB
When healthy, Rodgers is a undoubtedly an elite option. He’s already ruled out for Week 12 and highly questionable Week 13. If his current owners are having trouble treading water in his absence and your team is in a strong position for the playoffs, don’t be afraid to give them the firepower for the short-term in exchange for strengthening your team long-term.
Colin Kaepernick QB SF
It’s been a nightmarish season for those that bought into Kaepernick and have waited for him to snap out of his season long funk. He is still far from a weekly start, but there are a few juicy matchups left on the schedule, including this week versus Washington. Michael Crabtree is also very close to returning which may provide a jolt to the passing game. If you don’t have an elite QB, don’t be afraid to play the matchups with Kaepernick.
Reggie Bush RB DET
The dynamic playmaker had his lowest touch total of the season (14) outside of Detroit’s Week 2 game in which he suffered a knee injury. His touches were initially believed to be limited due to an early fumble, but HC Jim Schwartz later claimed that it was due to the field conditions. Regardless, Bush is averaging 112.4 total yards per game and should be locked in as an RB1 in all formats. His backup, Joquie Bell, is also questionable with a foot sprain.
C.J. Spiller RB BUF
The fantasy owners that have been harboring Spiller for most of the season are likely none too pleased and for good reason. The runner with a first round ADP has only been “startable” in four of the ten games he has played in this season. The good news is that he has disappeared from the injury report and just notched his most touches (15) and snaps (28) since Week 4. After a Week 12 Bye, the Bills offense will enjoy a post-Thanksgiving feast on the Atlanta Falcons defense.
A.J. Green WR CIN
There may not be much of a discount on him, but some owners in fantasy football tend to fall hard for recency bias and Green endured a season worst game across the board: four targets, two receptions, and seven receiving yards. He remains an elite WR1 and had five straight weeks with 100+ yards before last week’s debacle. A Week 12 Bye may help depress his price tag for those who can afford to absorb his absence for one week.
Keenan Allen WR SD
San Diego’s new #1 WR, was limited to just 49 snaps by a knee injury this past Sunday and his last two games have been the two worst outings since Week 4. Chargers’ HC Mike McCoy has little worry regarding the injury, stating “He’s fine. He’ll be playing, which is great.” The team has a tough matchup versus Kansas City this upcoming weekend, but Allen should regain WR2 status and has a relatively easy finish after that.
Percy Harvin WR SEA
Limited to just 20 of Seattle’s 54 offensive snaps, Harvin only saw one official target in his first action of the year. His first catch as a Seahawk was a nifty grab on a pass that he dove for and tipped to himself, ultimately being a gain of 17 yards. He did also see an unofficial target on a go-route, a part of the route tree that was forgotten in Minnesota, and drew a pass-interference penalty on that play only to be offset by offensive holding. His snaps should continue to rise and although his usage will likely be down from the Vikings, you’re presently looking at a WR3 with high-WR2 potential.
Cecil Shorts WR JAC
Prior to Justin Blackmon’s recent suspension, Shorts merited 10+ targets in seven of eight games played. In the two games since then, he has had only four targets in each of them even though he has remained on the field for 96% of Jacksonville’s offensive snaps. Shorts, himself, is displeased with his usage, telling reporters after this past game, "I have to say something… it's getting ridiculous in my opinion. To have one target until seven minutes left in the game, that's (expletive) dumb. That's dumb, period." I’m not able to make much sense of the lack of usage either, but with Mike Brown now questionable with a knee injury, Shorts’ role should begin to expand.
Vernon Davis TE SF
After being cleared of a concussion, Davis returned to play 57 of 59 snaps and continued to be impose his presence in the red zone, notching his eighth touchdown of the season with only nine games played. He remains quietly on pace for 982 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns even with a missed game from earlier and should be started as a strong TE1 with potential to blow up a couple more times this season.
SELLING
Ray Rice RB BAL
Before last Sunday’s game versus the beaten Chicago defense, Rice was averaging a pathetic 2.51 YPC. After breaking loose for 131 yards on 25 carries, some of his owners may be exhaling giant sighs of relief, but with a brutal matchup versus the Jets on tap and your league’s trading deadline likely looming, the window to sell-high won’t be open for long.
Chris Ivory RB NYJ
The running back’s three best outings have all come within the Jets’ past four games; in those games, Ivory has averaged 22.3 touches, 113.7 total yards and 0.7 touchdowns. In the one game sandwiched between them, he managed only 11 yards on six carries. A 69-yard run in the fourth quarter this past Sunday also helped to salvage his day. For the time being, there is a high bust factor associated with starting Ivory, especially with his lack of involvement in the passing game. Additionally, the remaining schedule is not entirely favorable, starting with a trip to Baltimore this weekend.
Anquan Boldin WR SF
With a strong 6-56-1 line and Michael Crabtree's return looming, Boldin is already a good sell. However, even if Crabtree plays next week, he'll likely be limited for at least his first game of the season and so hanging onto Boldin for one more game, if your league's trading deadline permits, may pay dividends as he would make for a very intriguing WR3 play versus Washington. After that game, Boldin is likely to fade into the backdrop as the third option in the passing game.
Jerricho Cotchery WR PIT
After five straight seasons of diminishing yardage totals, Cotchery is enjoying a resurgence. Unfortunately, that resurgence doesn’t seem to be sustainable. Cotchery’s yardage totals (50.3 per game) pin him more as a WR4/5 and his fantasy production has been heavily dependent on touchdowns (five touchdowns in the past three games on just 12 receptions), which is bound for regression. Additionally, Markus Wheaton has returned and is a player the Steelers would like to groom for the future.
WAIVER PICKUPS
Bobby Rainey RB TB
It didn’t take long for him to surpass Brian Leonard in the pecking order and Rainey then went on to rack up 164 total yards and three touchdowns on a whopping 32 touches. If he slipped through the cracks last week, then he’s worth unloading your remaining FAAB for. You’re likely not going to find another 20+ touch player available on the waiver wire throughout the rest of the season and he can be slotted in as at least a Flex each week.
Donald Brown RB IND
Although the Colts staff has stood behind Trent Richardson and publicly denied that he has been “outplayed” by Brown, it couldn’t be more clear. HC Chuck Pagano did finally admit that he won’t be afraid to go with the “hot hand” though and so barring Richardson miraculously finding himself mid-season, Brown has earned himself more carries. He’s hard to trust just yet, but in the event that he does begin to regularly lead the committee, you’ll want to have him rostered already.
Chris Ogbonnaya RB CLE
Affectionately known “Silent G” due to the pronunciation of his last name, Ogbonnaya has been utilized as the primary third-down back for most of the year after Dion Lewis was lost in the preseason. Ogbonnaya has averaged a strong 6.3 yards per rush on his 27 carries, seeing a season high eight carries this past Sunday. He also reeled in six of his twelve targets in that game while playing a team high 48 snaps among running backs. In PPR leagues, you can do worse with desperation Flex plays.
Santonio Holmes WR NYJ
“He remains the best receiver on the team. Just a year ago, he was shaping up to be a target hog and that may resume shortly in 2013. Even in this offense, he possesses WR3 potential.” That was the Week 3 blurb for Holmes before he was sidelined yet again, but it still rings true. Holmes is now healthy with plenty of ability left that he flashed once again with two catches for 71 yards this past week.
*All snap counts and targets in this article are courtesy of ProFootballFocus.com
You can find me on Twitter, @KyleWachtel, where I’d be happy to answer any of your questions.