The draft is almost here, but the window to make winning moves for your dynasty team is still wide open. There are a lot of assumptions baked into player values right now. Some won't happen, some will happen, and others that will happen haven't been factored into value enough yet. How can you take advantage of this?
Buy Jaylen Warren, Sell Najee Harris
Harris's fifth-year option is around seven million. He's not worth that in this depressed running back market. It would be much more surprising to see the Steelers pick up that option than it would be for them to exercise it. Harris could still end up with the team in 2025, but an announcement that the Steelers decline the option will at least temporarily open up a looming lead-back window for Warren. The potential value cliff ahead for Harris at a young man's position with free agency looming will sap what little value he has left in dynasty leagues. Arthur Smith's offense should give Warren ample opportunity to prove he deserves the spot at the top of the depth chart, and it will be a better offense with Justin Fields or Russell Wilson at quarterback. The Steelers are also likely to use their first-round pick at No. 20 to pluck a starting center or right tackle in a good class for both positions. Forces are converging around Warren, who looked like an ascending talent in 2023.
Buy Kyler Murray
The most likely outcome is that the Cardinals draft Marvin Harrison Jr. at No. 4. But if they trade out of the pick, general manager Monti Ossenfort could easily trade back up to No. 5 and get Harrison or to No. 6 and get Rome Odunze or Malik Nabers, just as he traded down and then back up to get tackle Paris Johnson Jr. last year. Even if the Cardinals don't trade back up, they would then have two shots at a strong second tier of wide receivers in the first round. Arizona also holds the third pick of the second round, three third-round picks, and six picks in the first 104. This draft should see Murray's wide receiver group add a lot of talent one way or the other. Murray should be healthier and better for his second year in Drew Petzing's scheme. Not very long ago, Murray was on the doorstep of the elite fantasy quarterback tier, and he could be back there sooner than later.
Buy Josh Jacobs, Joe Mixon, Aaron Jones, James Conner, Raheem Mostert, Derrick Henry, Zack Moss, Nick Chubb
The biggest knee-jerk reactions immediately after the draft in the dynasty market come in the form of value drops when a rookie joins a veteran back. Any dynasty teams that don't have a top half of the league roster might be looking to get out of a back on this list ahead of a potential value landmine via a younger running mate. This year is a little different, with a weak class bereft of workhorse types led by a back who is coming back from an ACL tear. Carolina and Dallas are telegraphing taking one of the top backs in this class, and the Chargers are likely to be one of the first teams to take a back, too. That could leave middling limited-upside prospects for the teams on this list to choose from, posing little threat to the veteran in year one. They are all being drafted too low based on their expected touches in early Underdog drafts. When the draft comes and goes without adding much new competition for touches, most will get their projected workload. As we get closer to the season and "redraft" mode in dynasty leagues, the value of this group will grow. Right now, in franchise-building long-view offseason mode for dynasty leagues, the value of these backs for one year isn't exciting. So, it's being undervalued.
Sell Kyren Williams
Don't sell Williams below market value. But be open to selling him at or close to market value for a third year back who was a strong RB1 last year. One that is going in the early second round of best ball leagues. Williams got 20+ touches in 9 of his 12 games last year. There's no way the Rams can expect a back who was 5-foot-9 and 194 pounds at the combine two years ago to hold up if they give him that much again this year. The Rams don't have a fourth-round pick, so unless they feel comfortable waiting until the fifth round to upgrade a backup group that didn't exactly inspire trust last year, a back with second-day draft capital could join Williams. Even if the Rams don't add a back of consequence in the draft, backs of his size and unremarkable athleticism don't usually stay on top for long. With that said, his dynasty value likely still lags behind what his production, age, and situation dictate. It's still worth exploring if you can get a first this year and next year for him.
Sell Tee Higgins
Higgins' second-half tear in 2021 at 22 years old put him on the list of young dynasty cornerstone wide receivers. Since then, he hasn't taken the next step, and last year, he had an injury-riddled season that lowered his value from the previous peak even further. Now, he wants a trade and may not get one. We have two draft weekend possibilities. One, he gets traded. Changing teams generally isn't a plus for a wide receiver, and it's highly likely that his quarterback and offense quality would take a hit. The extra bump might balance the target out at first. But, if the extra targets are low quality, they won't matter as much in the long run. Two, he remains a Bengal because no one else is willing to give up premium draft capital for the privilege of giving him a market-setting deal. That should diminish his perceived value and serve as a potential preview of a tepid market for his services in 2025 if his salary expectation doesn't change.
Buy Courtland Sutton
The Broncos already traded one of the wideouts they had on the block last year for couch cushion change draft picks. Why not another? Sutton is due $13+ million each of the next two seasons, and the Broncos aren't likely to be a legitimate contender in 2025 unless they hit a C.J. Stroud-sized home run at quarterback this week. Sutton is staring down the barrel of catching passes from Jarrett Stidham or a rookie outside of the top three prospects at the position. A trade would almost necessarily boost his value. In a best-case scenario, he could be the Gabe Davis replacement in Buffalo if they don't go wide receiver early in the draft.
