Many roads lead to success in fantasy football. One of the less traveled paths drops you at the intersection of the fantasy football community and social media. A tourist at this particular crossroads might find some amusing gifs, a few outrageous hot takes, and an endless stream of contradicting advice and polarizing player values. Recently that junction has been the arena for more than a few discussions regarding player rankings and the overall value they provide to the average fantasy football player.
Answering that question first - rankings absolutely provide value. In a vacuum, rankings are a solid starting point. They are a backbone that supports the relationship between productivity, prognostication, and the overall value they represent to a fantasy football roster. The crux of this discussion, however, really revolves around their strategic application and the process necessary to get maximum value from player rankings, especially as rankings relate to identifying variance in value. How can you apply consensus price points and - more importantly - add a layer of context to your own player values? How can this contextual-laden information sharpen your strategy when it comes to drafting and trading?
Yes, I'm aware this may seem basic and overly obvious to most savvy fantasy football veterans, but many folks - especially those new to this hobby - see player rankings and look no further. Their attention stops at the information floating on the surface and their curiosity gets lured away by the next shiny topic passing by. Folks eager to learn and engage can miss out on the true value offered by contextual adjustments and the corresponding variance that adding a layer of context can provide. One other aspect to consider with rankings in general - not all rankings (or rankers/sources) are created equally. We ultimately become what we consume and taking a wider pass at rankings can create a more accurate representation of industry values.
In order to incorporate value variance into your strategy, we need to first understand what variance is and what it's showing you. At its core, variance estimates how far (+/-) a set of numbers is from their mean (average) value. That variance is your true north when crafting deals and making draft selections.
Let's discuss the process I apply when it comes to using player rankings AND context to identify value variance.
Step 1 - Generate a set of rankings focused on league size, format, and scoring.
I prefer to generate an overall set of rankings (QB, RB, WR, TE) and then individual rankings based on positions. Footballguys has a tool that allows you to generate rankings based on league size, format, and scoring rules. These are your "base rankings."
Step 2 - Generate consensus rankings.
Footballguys rankings generator allows you to create consensus results by factoring in rankings from multiple analysts. I like to go further and search for a larger cross-section and results from sources that may include actual ADP from recent mocks and start-up drafts. Again, not all rankings (and rankers) are created equally, and a larger cross-section of results helps solidify a more reliable consensus.
Step 3 - Adjust your base rankings with context.
The one phrase that is always on the tip of my tongue is "Context Matters." It matters in day-to-day interactions and it matters when applying value to your dynasty rankings. Not all outlooks, strategies, or goals are the same. Nor are all rosters constructed similarly. Some folks are in the midst of a major rebuild, while others have pushed all their chips to the center of the table for a run at Title Town. In fact, at this very moment, there are probably one or two managers in your leagues debating whether or not to rebuild, reload, or go all in for the 2024 season. Seasonal strategies and expectations are factors that impact your managerial decisions year-round so they should also provide context to your base rankings.
Contextual ranking adjustments are the special seasoning, the layer of personalization that truly spotlights the variance to capitalize on - so take your base rankings and make them personal. Some additional examples:
- Preferred playing style derived from proof of concept or successful execution in previous seasons will likely add context to your rankings.
- Maybe you devalue running backs as a general strategy and are lower than the consensus on elite RBs because of minimal shelf life.
- Or maybe you place a premium on securing QB depth in superflex formats.
- Is there a particular player or group of players you're enamored with?
- Maybe you prefer giving a slight uptick in value to a few select veteran WRs every season to capitalize on the ageism that runs rampant in dynasty.
- Is this incoming rookie class deep or weak at particular positions? What about next year's class?
- Do you have a specific league rule or scoring aspect not easily accounted for when setting output parameters on a ranking tool or generator?
Bottom line: adjusting your base rankings for context will identify the true value variance that is always lurking just far enough in the shadows that you often miss what should be an obvious opportunity to capitalize on.
4th step - Find that variance. What's next?
Consensus rankings illuminate the community group-think that drives the mean (average). Your base rankings - now adjusted for personal strategy and/or a particular league - highlight the variance in potential price points compared to consensus value. Players you're higher on than consensus become great options for you to target in your next trade. Players on your roster that you value lower than consensus become sell targets and the players to prioritize moving when constructing trade offers. We're never going to be perfect with projecting or assigning values, but rankings with a layer of personalized context pinpoint strategic opportunities to be better than the masses all moving in the same direction, all using the same value system to drive their decisions.
Is this process time-consuming? Yes. That's one of the reasons why this is a good process to apply during the offseason when there is very little week-to-week volatility and things are fairly quiet. Is it necessary to do this for every league you're in? No. However, assigning values to rankings is a process that will be beneficial across all of your leagues. Being familiar with your own core player values compared to consensus results is a process that only gains value and strengthens with repetition and application. Rankings by themselves are fine, but rankings with specific context compared to consensus are a spotlight to identifying your next move.
Thanks for reading! If you want to learn more about dynasty fantasy football and the strategic nuances associated with fantasy football in general, follow me on X @Ciga_FF. Let me know your questions and how I can help.
