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Spotlight - RB Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams
Posted 7/19 by Jason Wood and Marc Levin, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
Jason Wood's Thoughts Marshall Faulk had a legendary run as the focal point of the Rams offensive attack. Through the 1999-2001 seasons, Faulk averaged:
As impressive as those numbers were, it's going on four years since Faulk produced at a consistently elite level; which is where Steven Jackson comes into play. Jackson, considered by some the best RB prospect in the 2004 NFL draft, saw his near-term fantasy potential dashed when the Rams selected him. Jackson, regardless of his talent, wasn't going to replace Faulk, nor were the Rams going to run the ball enough to effectively utilize two RBs to their fantasy potential. In the context of his limited opportunity, Jackson acquitted himself well and showed just enough for his supporters to project huge numbers for him in a full time role.
On an apples to apples basis, Jackson outperformed Faulk in several key metrics:
...Averaged a full yard better per carry (5.0 versus 4.0 for Faulk) So it would seem that the only thing keeping Jackson from a major fantasy breakout was the guarantee of an increased workload. Luckily, he got that when HC Mike Martz officially declared Jackson the full-time starter for the 2005 season. So with a good pedigree, the starting job, and an offense that always puts up big numbers; what's not to like about Jackson's fantasy prospects? PLENTY. 1) Faulk isn't really out of the picture -- Sure, Marshall Faulk has graciously stepped aside to let Jackson be the lead ball-carrier. But that doesn't mean Faulk won't play, particularly as a receiver. Just a few weeks ago, Mike Martz said, "I see a teamwork deal between the two of them,...They’ll be in at the same time, work as a team. Marshall’s role will be more of a receiver. We’ll have them in the same backfield. We can split either of them out — both can catch the ball. Marshall’s role will be as he defines it, basically. If he wants to play 80 percent, basically that is what he’ll do." What does that mean? It means, at worst, Jackson isn't in line to see the heavy receiving workload that Faulk used to (80+ catches), and at best, Jackson is probably in line to amass 35-40 receptions and commensurate yardage. 2) There aren't enough carries to go around -- Over the last three seasons, the entire Rams RB Corps averaged 339 carries a season, 31st in the league. Even if one assume the Rams increase that number a bit this year (let's say, to 360), that still leaves precious few carries to split between Jackson and Faulk. Say, for argument's sake, Faulk only gets 80 carries this season, that would leave Jackson will somewhere between 260-280. That's enough of a workload to be a solid fantasy runner, but it all but assures he can't surprise anyone and finish among the elite at the position. 3) The Rams throw the ball in the red zone -- Over the last three seasons, the Rams have run the ball 49.3% of the time in the red zone; the 4th lowest percentage in the league over that span. Only Green Bay, Cleveland and Detroit have a propensity to throw the ball more down in the R.Z. With the cadre of Rams receivers, and Faulk being used out of the slot and backfield, I'm just not sure Jackson is going to get the opportunities necessary to put up big TD numbers. Combine the aforementioned factors with uncertainty at RT (can rookie Alex Barron deliver?) and I'm not sure Jackson is worth the price in 2005 redrafts. According to recent Antsports ADP data, Jackson is the 17th RB drafted toward the end of the 2nd round in 12-team leagues. That's about right, but likely captures much, if not all of his upside.
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Final Thoughts You might not realize it from this write up but I'm a fan of Steven Jackson. I was bitterly disappointed when the Rams selected him last year because I felt he was one of a handful of rookies that could've stepped into a starting role and been a fantasy force. But such is life and instead he sat behind one of the all-time greats at the position. There's no question that his fantasy prospects are considerably more appealing this year: he's been named the starter, Alex Barron appears to be an upgrade at RT, Orlando Pace will be in camp, and the Rams are always productive offensively with Martz at the helm. That said, his UPSIDE is limited, more so than other young, stud RBs that you might consider in the early rounds. He would have to make a marked improvement in his TD-per-touch production AND hope for a much smaller role from Faulk than I'm expecting in order to emerge as a top 10-12 fantasy RB. I think if he's healthy, Jackson should deliver solid RB15-20 type production, which is worth having on your roster but only at the right price.
Marc Levin's Thoughts The torch has passed. One of the all-time great players – under both fantasy and NFL standards – has accepted a backup and mentoring role to Steven Jackson, who is the future for the St. Louis Rams at running back. The second year player is not a Marshal Faulk clone. He is noticeably bigger at 6’2” and 235 pounds and he is not an ankle breaker like Faulk used to be. However, he has plenty of speed to get to the corner and to burst for chunks of yardage when he gets into the secondary. Last year, the goal was to preserve Faulk by using Jackson as relief. This year, Jackson is clearly the primary back. HC Mike Martz has recently stated that the Rams’ backfield “could be” 50-50 through the season. In June and July, don’t place too much emphasis on statements from coaches about how they will divide carries. First, when the season hits, all coaches prefer one back to carry the load. Second, these type of statements before training camp are almost always encouragement for the veteran to keep active and a reminder to the young player that there is a ready and willing player to take his job. While there should be no surprise to see Faulk in the game on passing downs, and maybe near the goal line, don’t be fooled into thinking Jackson will lose a significant number of carries. The problem for Jackson is not Faulk – it is Martz. Martz loves to sling that ball downfield and he has the weapons to do so. Faulk was always able to supplement his rushing numbers with tremendous receiving numbers. He and Jackson are likely to split the receiving numbers in 2005, or Faulk will get the bulk of them. The reason this is a problem is that since Martz became head coach in 2000, the Rams are annually one of the worst teams in the league in rush attempts . In 2004, the team’s 381 carries was 30th in the league. The team ranked 28th in 2003, 32nd in 2002, 22nd in 2001, and 26th in 2000. As they say, a leopard doesn’t change his spots, and Mike Martz will call for a pass more often than he calls for a running play. However, there are just as many positives as negatives with Jackson’s 2005 potential. Jackson averaged 5.0 YPC behind essentially the same offensive line that Faulk struggled to gain 4.0 YPC. It seemed clear late in the 2004 season that Jackson was the fresh punch that the offensive line needed to show it could be productive. Nevertheless, the Rams re-tooled the unit. While all-pro LT Orlando Pace, RG Adam Timmerman, and C Andy McCollum return, first round rookie Alex Barron will be plugged into RG, and there is a battle for LG. Despite the shuffling, the unit should be improved. While Jackson closed the 2004 season strong, it would be folly to assume those numbers indicate 2005 success. Just remember backs like Kevan Barlow and William Green before placing too much emphasis on the carry over effect of late season fantasy numbers. Each back is in a unique situation – and Jackson’s best situation is ahead of him. He is the primary ball carrier on a prolific offense, and is expected to take a large offensive role in 2005. But, he is not expected to carry the team. Also, the Rams’ division is soft defensively, and there are only a few particularly stout defenses on the schedule (Washington, Jacksonville, and possibly Philadelphia and Dallas). Finally, is Jackson good value? His current late second, early third round average draft position, and his RB19 ranking by Footballguys.com seems just about right. Yet, there are a few backs, such as Warrick Dunn, Tatum Bell, Lamont Jordan, and Chris Brown, who could be available a bit later. Jackson is probably slightly overvalued, but he can definitely live up to his draft spot and should make a nice fantasy RB2 in 2005.
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Final Thoughts Steven Jackson at the helm of the running back position for the Rams is a different type of back than the Rams are used to. He will use his size, strength, and speed combination to run effectively. And, his YPC will remain high since Martz will likely use the pass to set up the run. In any games that Jackson’s carries reach the 15-20 range, he should be an effective fantasy RB2. But, his owners should expect a few games where Martz stays away from the ground game and flings the ball all over the field. In those games, Jackson’s fantasy worth may be minimal, especially if Martz goes with Faulk’s experience and proven ability in the passing game over Jackson.
Quotations from the Message Board Thread To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.
joffer:
Pony Boy:
Unlucky:
Steven Jackson Projections
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