Jason Wood's Thoughts

Just call him 7-Eleven...because he's always open.

Whether quips like that infuriate you or make you chuckle (I'm in the latter camp), no football fan can ignore what Chad Johnson brings to the field and in turn, to fantasy teams lucky enough to roster him. Johnson has emerged as one of the very best receivers in the game, with virtually no discernible hole in his skill set.

For all his showboating, he's engendered the respect of his coaches, teammates and opponents for his committment to his craft. Johnson is a voracious film student, reportedly sleeping in the team's film room two or three nights a week. When asked why he does that, he reasoned that if Jerry Rice did it, why shouldn't he? And when Johnson's not sleeping over, he's got a $30,000 custom-built film review setup at his home. Johnson has been able to take over games, regardless of his surrounding situation.

...Journeyman QB on a 2-14 team with a disgruntled running back? Not a problem, in 2002 Johnson emerged with 69 receptions, 1166 yards and 5 touchdowns (most of which came in the second half after he was named a starter)

...New head coach, a changing of the guard at RB and a sieve defense? No sweat, Johnson puts together a Pro Bowl season of 90 receptions, 1355 yards and 10 TDs as he single-handedly turns Jon Kitna into the league's most improved player

...Changing of the guard at QB, to a highly touted but completely inexperienced Carson Palmer? Ho hum, Johnson merely puts up 95 receptions for 1274 yards and 9 touchdowns

Great players make plays regardless of the situation, and Johnson personifies that doctrine.

• Vs. Baltimore (6th ranked D) -- 18 for 260 and 2 TDs (in two games)
• Vs. Denver (4th ranked D) -- 7 for 149 and 1 TD
• Vs. New England (9th ranked D) -- 5 for 80 and 1 TD
• Vs. New York Jets (7th ranked D) -- 5 for 99 and 1 TD
• Vs. Pittsburgh (1st ranked D) -- 9 for 134 and 1 TD

You probably don't need to be convinced that Johnson is good, VERY good. So the question becomes, how high should you be willing to draft him? According to Antsports ADP data, Johnson is being drafted as the 5th WR off the board, in the late 2nd/early 3rd round. Personally, if he's there for the taking at that point, I would grab him without hesitation.

With the possible exception of Marvin Harrison, I see no other elite WR with as clear a path to superstardom this year:

Randy Moss is changing teams, moving to a Norv Turner led offense, downgrades to Kerry Collins at QB, and no longer plays most of his games on turf.

Terrell Owens seems to have burned his bridges in Philly, yet the team won't give in and trade him unless they're bowled over. Can you really count on him as a first or second round selection?

Joe Horn has a new offensive coordinator, and isn't getting any younger.

Meanwhile Chad Johnson is young and still at a point where he should have room for further development, Carson Palmer (who was electric at the end of 2004) enters his second season as the starter and has better command of the playbook, the entire offense returns intact, and opposing defenses can't key on Johnson thanks to Rudi Johnson and a cadre of supporting WRs that can win one-on-one matchups.

Positives

• A complete receiver, with the rare combination of ability and driving ambition to be the very best...he's not content to be one of the best, he wants to be THE best
• Carson Palmer should make strides as he enters his second year as the Bengals starter
• With RB R. Johnson, and WRs Houshmandzadeh, Warrick and Henry in tow, teams can't easily gameplan against Johnson without leaving the Bengals with matchups to exploit
• The other consensus top 5 fantasy receivers all have question marks that should give savvy fantasy owners pause

Negatives

• Johnson has a propensity to drop passes (as do many of the league's best)
• Carson Palmer was a middle-of-the-road QB last season and inconsistent (18 TDs, 18 INTs)
• Johnson's yards per reception have declined for three consecutive seasons

Final Thoughts

Chad Johnson has the ability to finish as THE best fantasy receiver. Whether he will finish atop the fantasy rankings is hard to determine, but I believe he's got as good a chance as any of the four or five other receivers being taken ahead of him in most drafts. Johnson is in his prime, healthy and has that tireless work ethic that defines the great ones. He benefits from having a solid corp of receivers alongside him; yet none of them are threats to take away his touches as the focal point of the offense. There's nothing this guy can't do...he's able to beat teams deep, has turned himself into one of the best route runners in the game, rises to the level of his competition. If he's available in the latter part of the second round or early 3rd round, select him with confidence and recognize that you've just taken a major step toward making your league's 2005 fantasy playoffs.

Colin Dowling's Thoughts

How can anyone NOT like Chad Johnson? Seriously, he’s always good for a sound bite, he’s got a bit of ego and a dash of trash-talk in him, but he’s mostly harmless. He doesn’t hold out, he doesn’t act like a fool, he cares about winning, and he celebrates his achievements without rubbing the other team’s nose in it. Seriously, what’s not to like?

Chad Johnson – his ability and his attitude – has almost single-handedly changed the fortunes of the Cincinnati Bengals. He came in and started catching balls and scoring touchdowns. He didn’t bemoan the fact that he was playing for a bad franchise, and he didn’t ever let on that losing games was taking its toll. As time passed, a new coach came in and leaned heavily upon Johnson to give the offense the swagger needed to be a force in the NFL. The Bengals haven’t gotten “there” just yet, but they are well on their way. And much of the credit belongs to Johnson.

As for his on-field ability, Johnson doesn’t have the best hands in the world, but his instincts are top notch and he always seems to make a play when needed. He has the ability to take over games from time to time and very rarely do defenses stop him flat on their own.

Positives

• Good speed and open field ability
• Number one option in the Bengals passing offense
• Quarterback play is improving
• Field leader that is leaned on in critical times to make a big play; often he delivers

Negatives

• Emerging competition for targets by Houshmandzadeh, Warrick, Washington, Mann, Henry
• Hands could stand to be a bit better
• Offense will continue to run the ball quite a bit as Palmer develops

Final Thoughts

Chad Johnson should deliver WR1 production again this year for fantasy owners. The development of his teammates at quarterback and wide-receiver could actually be a great help to Johnson and could push him over the top and in to the realm of the top 2 or 3 wideouts in the game. I think this is the year it happens. Do not be afraid to select Chad Johnson as your #1 wide receiver on draft day.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Peyton Marino:
Chad is even with Moss, TO and Harrison talent wise. The only thing stopping him from being the top fantasy WR last year was the fact that Palmer struggled early on in the season. In Palmer's last six starts, his numbers saw a significant increase. In Palmer's last six starts, these are what Chad's numbers look like.

44 receptions (7.3 per game)
601 yards (100 per game)
5 TDs (.8 per game)

I think the sky is the limit for Chad in 2005.

jdoggydogg:
While Johnson is still growing as a man, he's known to be one of the hardest-working WR in the league. He studies film for hours, and he works closely with Palmer. I think that great talent + work ethic = a good chance at becoming the #1 fantasy WR.

Longrifle:
2005 will be the year when Chad Johnson becomes a household name. Now I know what you are saying “He is already a household name.” This is only true if you a into FF. The names all the casual FF players will be talking about are the usual subspects (Moss, Harrison, Owens). Johnson will out perform all of these guys. I see Johnson being either the #1 or #2 WR in FF in 2005.

ericttspikes:
The thing I dislike most about selecting CJ as a top receiver is his inconsistency. He simply dissapears in some games. I see Harrison, Holt, Owens and Moss being ahead of CJ with cheaper picks like Kennison, Burleson and Horn being closer in production for far less cost.

Rozelle:
The #1 Dynasty and Redraft WR in my book. Chad's dedication to the game and his desire to be the best are what impress me the most. Studies his opponents and spends hours in the film room. Does not have the baggage of a Moss or TO... yet.

Chad Johnson Projections

SOURCE	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Jason Wood	0	0	100	1375	12
Colin Dowling	0	0	93	1320	12
Message Board Consensus	0	0	97	1383	11