Jason Wood's Thoughts

Who holds the Broncos' single season record for passing yards? If you answered John Elway...A) You're not alone and B) You're dead wrong. Last season, Jake Plummer threw for 4,089 yards and set a new Broncos record in the process.

OK, here's a chance to redeem yourself. Who holds the Broncos' single season record for passing TDs? OK, kind of a trick question. If you answered Elway, you were half right. He threw for 27 TDs back in 1997 and then Plummer came along and matched that total last season.

OK, third time's the charm. Which QB holds the Broncos single-season record for fantasy points (using FBG scoring)? You guessed it, Plummer again. Plummer's 319 fantasy points in 2004 broke Elway's record of 312 points set in 1995.

In case you haven't figured it out yet, Plummer had one mighty productive season last year. Does he still throw a ton of interceptions? Absolutely, his 20 interceptions last season tied for most in the league. But, Plummer's mobility (202 rushing yards) and his prolific passing numbers more than offset his propensity to throw the occasional INT.

Very little has changed this year, which suggests that Plummer should again be in the position to provide solid fantasy production, in my opinion.

• His receiving corps returns intact -- Ashley Lelie (1,084 yards/7 TDs) and Rod Smith (1,144 yards/7 TDs) are back and joined by G.O.A.T. Jerry Rice who will, at worst, push Darius Watts for the 3rd WR spot. At tight end, the Broncos matched an offer sheet to retain Jeb Putzier, and veteran Stephen Alexander was brought aboard for added depth.
• The Broncos defense was already solid -- Some QBs put up big numbers because their team's defense is so porous they are forced to throw the ball to play catch up and stay in games. Such was not the case for Plummer, as the Broncos defense ranked 4th in yards allowed and 10th in points allowed. Regardless of how the Broncos D holds up, Plummer can produce.
• The Broncos running game is always effective -- Much of Plummer's success came off play action and that's only sustainable if the Broncos can effectively run the ball. While some may point to the departure of Reuben Droughns (1,240 yards rushing in 2004) as worrisome, remember that the Broncos let him go via trade. Presumably HC Mike Shanahan believes Tatum Bell, Quentin Griffin and Maurice Clarett are more than up to the task.
• Plummer's mobility lessens the importance of changes on the offensive line -- Jake Plummer isn't called "the snake" for nothing. His mobility has always been a hallmark and should serve him well as the Broncos undergo some changes on the offensive line.

Positives

• Threw for 4,000 yards and 27 TDs, showing the command of the offense that Mike Shanahan expected when bringing him aboard
• Accomplished his output despite a solid defense and very good running game, in other words, Plummer doesn't have to be playing catch up to produce
• Given current ADP, Plummer again looks like someone you can draft a few rounds later than his production dictates

Negatives

• In leagues that penalize harshly for INTs, Plummer is tough to draft, he led the league in INTs last season
• He's going to be prone to some outright horrendous games given his gunslinger style
• Before last season, Plummer hadn't thrown more than 18 TDs in a season, and had more sub-3,000 yard passing seasons than 3,000+ yard campaigns

Final Thoughts

There are going to be people in your league convinced that Plummer's 2004 season was a fluky outlier, and so they'll avoid him on draft day. While I can't argue that 2004 was significantly out of whack with his previous production, let's remember that much of his history came in Arizona under much different circumstances. Last year was his first fully healthy season as the Broncos QB, and he went out and finished as the 5th best fantasy QB. While I'm not going to endorse a repeat of 2004, his current ADP suggests he won't even be in the ballpark. Yet, stability is critical to a QB's performance and Plummer's situation is extremely stable, with marginal improvement at WR/TE and possibly RB. If you like to wait on your QB in order to stockpile at other positions, Plummer should be near the top of your list of ideal mid round fantasy options.

Bob Henry's Thoughts

Plummer is both a productive, but erratic fantasy QB. He’s coming off career highs in passing yards (4,089), passing TDs (27) and yards per attempt (7.8) in 2004 and has virtually the same offensive team returning in 2005. Plummer is athletic but not necessarily an active runner averaging 14 to 15 yds per game throughout his career. He’s run for 14 TDs in 8 years, but 4 of those have come as a Bronco in just 27 games. That’s encouraging knowing the Broncos love to run bootlegs and misdirection plays near the goal-line that will yield Plummer 5 to 10 TDs to fullbacks, h-backs and tight ends and probably 2 or 3 keepers for himself. He was very productive for the most part in 2004 scoring starter-quality numbers 10 weeks out of 16. He threw for 200 yds or more in 14 games and found the end zone at least once in 13 games.

The Snake, unfortunately, is still snake-bitten at times. He’s known for throwing the untimely pick, and he’s still good for a few real stinkers each season. He threw 2 interceptions or more in 7 games last season while not throwing a single interception in 6 games. However, if you’re the eternal optimist than imagine how good Plummer could be if he continues to show slight or steady improvement as a passer and reduced the interceptions. He’d be a strong top 5 fantasy QB. Given the amount of talent he has to work with Plummer should be a top candidate to finish in the top 5 or 10 again in 2005. Rod Smith is into his 30s and would appear to be on the decline, yet he reversed a downward stat trend in 2004 and combines with the still improving Ashley Lelie and Darius Watts – a comer in his 2nd season and potential long-term replacement for Smith. With potentially every other team in the AFC West sporting explosive offenses there’s a significantly good chance that he’ll continue to produce similar if not better numbers in 2005. Call it the Randy Moss effect. If the Browns, I mean the Broncos defensive line doesn’t pan out and Champ Bailey doesn’t get some consistent play opposite him in 2004 then Plummer could very well be in some serious shooting matches with the Raiders, Chiefs and Chargers.

Positives

• 5th ranked fantasy QB in 2004 and returns with nearly the same cast of players surrounding him
• 7th among QBs in fantasy pts per game as a Bronco, 11th in total fantasy pts
• QB rating is over 87 since joining the Broncos (under 70 before)
• Shown steady improvement in YPA, TDs and completion %

Negatives

• Thrown more INTs than games played in 6 of his 8 seasons
• Tends to be erratic on the road
• Faces Baltimore (home) in week 15 and plays in the weather in Buffalo in week 16

Final Thoughts

Plummer should continue to improve slightly in his third season with the Broncos. If the ground game isn’t as effective as last year with a couple losses on the offensive line that could mean slightly higher numbers for Plummer in terms of yardage and TDs. Plummer no longer has any excuses as far as not having talented skilled players surrounding him and Mike Shanahan’s version of the West Coast offense seemingly is a good fit for his abilities. As long as Plummer stays healthy (he missed 5 starts in 2003) he should be a top 5 or 10 fantasy QB in 2005 with relative ease. He’ll always have some degree of inconsistency because of the picks. Depending on the scoring system downgrade him appropriately if interceptions weigh more heavily. Plummer’s capable of being a decent value pick in the draft given his current ADP, but don’t reach too high for him and be sure to nab someone like Byron Leftwich, Brian Griese or Carson Palmer as a backup plan. Plummer will probably produce 10 or more quality starts where he’ll rank among your league’s top 10 or 15 QBs. It’s planning for those other 5 or 6 games that can give your team an edge. Don’t get me wrong. Plummer is a productive player in a great offensive system with good players and coaches surrounding him. A top 5 or top 10 season a reasonable expectation given his production in his 27 starts as a Bronco.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Deranged Hermit:
I like to watch Jake Plummer play but I cannot see him coming close to duplicating last year's numbers. Simply put, the Denver offensive system shouldn't allow a QB to pass the ball 521 times if their running game is hitting on all cylinders. I get a feeling that his attempts will fall a bit as will his TDs and passing yards.

diesel7982:
Everyone seems down on Plummer and I don't know why...he's an excellent fantasy QB, and an underrated NFL QB. With Droughns gone, I do not expect any RB in Denver to take 20 carries a game, and I expect the passing game to be further emphasized.

Pony Boy:
The first misconception is that if the DEN running game suffers that the passing game will be better because passing attempts will go up. That is false.

Under Shanahan for 10 years, the top 6 passing years were all accompanied by a running game in the top 5 in the NFL. Some teams will sell out their running game to throw the ball - STL, IND, & TB under Gruden qualify for those kinds of teams. Shanahan uses the rushing game as his main weapon and his passing game is the complement. If the running game isn't going well, then the offense isn't going well, which means the passing game isn't going well. In the only 2 seasons out of the 10 that Shanahan has coached that the Broncos rushing game was out of the top 5, the passing game put up the 7th & 10th worst numbers in Shanahan's tenure.

So, if you feel that DEN's rushing game will suck (relative to 8 of Shanahan's 10 years, where they finished in the top 5), you should actually be lowering your numbers for Plummer.

The second misconception is that if the RBs aren't getting the job done in the red zone that Shanahan must have to pass the ball into the end zone.

Shanahan is one of the most conservative coaches in the league in the red zone. His philosophy is that he wants points when he enters the red zone - any kind of points. So he reduces the play book significantly, runs very safe plays, and gets downright ugly conservative. He'd rather take the FG than turn the ball over. That means that Plummer's opportunities fall off as soon as the team enters the red zone - they don't increase just because the RBs aren't getting the job done. Shanahan is so downright stubborn to this philosophy that his offense almost chokes off, as he is very predictable. The passes he throws down there are ultra-safe - the TE waggle, the QB rolling option, the FB out of the backfield - those kinds of plays. That's why scoring lagged the offensive numbers last season.

The lack of success by RBs in the red zone won't affect Plummer's numbers appreciably.

That said, I think you'll see Plummer's numbers regress this season. That may still mean a very good season, since Plummer had the best passing yardage year of any QB in DEN history last season.

Jake Plummer Projections

SOURCE	PYD	PTD	INT	RSHYD	RSHTD
Jason Wood	3600	24	20	200	2
Bob Henry	3875	26	19	218	2
Message Board Consensus	3823	25	20	214	2