We expect big things from both of these players this year. Collins because of the addition of Randy Moss and Lamont Jordan and Vick because this is his second year in this offense. Both of these players could easily be gone by round 6. And if that happens, do not panic...just move to plan B.

Plan B at QB: As you enter the seventh round, take one of these excellent QBs:

Grab the best one you can. I expect them all to have great years.

Now sit back and enjoy the panic from the other owners as the quarterbacks keep flying off the board. Later in the draft, set your sites on getting one of these quality backups:

Again, the general strategy is to wait at QB unless exceptional value presents itself early.

No need to panic at this position. Just let the draft come to you. There is great value to be gained by waiting. Typically after those first 16 QBs are drafted (usually by the middle of round nine), QBs will come off the board at about two per round until all of the starters are taken.

Additionally the following QBs are rarely drafted but could be homeruns if their starting QB went down to injury:

In leagues with deep drafts, taking a flier on one of these with your last pick in the draft could yield outstanding results. Less than half of the QBs in the league play all 16 games each year. The other owners will call you lucky if you hit on one of these players, but the engraving on the trophy still looks the same.

One last QB strategy you have to have in your arsenal this year is the handcuff play with the Detroit quarterbacks. There is no questioning the talent this team has at running back (Kevin Jones) and wide receiver (Roy Williams, Charles Rogers, Kevin Johnson, and Mike Williams). They also have a solid TE in Marcus Pollard. Their defense is below average. They play Chicago, Minnesota and Green Bay twice and are likely to be involved in some shootouts (because those teams have below-average defenses too).

All said, the Detroit passing game will likely put up great numbers this season. The problem is who is the starter? A case could be made for Harrington or Garcia. I think it's likely both will be the starter at some point this season. So do the right thing and get them both. Their ADPs right now are hovering around the 24th and 32nd quarterbacks. Combined, they have a great chance to be top ten in passing. One will likely emerge, and even if the controversy lasts all season you will know who to play each week. It will be the player practicing with the first team.

Running Backs

In most leagues, running backs are golden. Yes they can run and catch, but the real reason they are golden is there simply are not enough of them to go around. Every owner wants three or four quality backs. In 12-team leagues this creates huge demand with limited supply.

My strategy for the perfect 12-team draft is to try and secure three of the top 20 elite backs this season.

Here they are according to my rank (feel free to move them around to your liking):

1. LaDainian Tomlinson, SD
2. Priest Holmes, KC
3. Shaun Alexander, Sea
4. Deuce McAllister, NO
5. Edgerrin James, Ind
6. Domanick Davis, Hou
7. Clinton Portis, Was
8. Tiki Barber, NYG
9. Willis McGahee, Buf
10. Corey Dillon, NE
11. Brian Westbrook, Phi
12. Kevin Jones, Det
13. Julius Jones, Dal
14. Curtis Martin, NYJ
15. Rudi Johnson, Cin
16. Jamal Lewis, Bal
17. Steven Jackson, StL
18. Ahman Green, GB
19. Lamont Jordan, Oak
20. Tatum Bell, Den

Your ideal goal is to get three of these players and let the other owners fight over the table scraps that are left. And to get three of them, owners will need to pick RB, RB and RB in three successive picks.

Here are the only non-RB players that I would take before these elite 22 backs:

There is a good chance that none of these players will be available at these spots. That is OK. Continue to stockpile the elite RBs and position yourself for a strong draft the rest of the way. The reason you need to get exceptional value if you don't take running backs with your first two or three picks is because you will likely overpay for mediocre RBs every round after round two.

So getting Randy Moss at fair value (pick 12) actually represents negative value to your squad because you will be scrambling to make the RB position work later in the draft.

Average Draft Position shows that these 20 elite backs are usually gone by the 29th pick. So teams drafting late in the first round may not even have the possibility to execute this strategy.

Once the 20 elite RBs are off the board, you have to shift gears and take the best available player. Continuing to pursue lesser RB talent is likely a recipe for disaster and should only be done if it coincides with the Top 200 valuations.

Besides taking quality RBs early, I also like these backs in the following rounds:

Additionally, you can generate value by taking these handcuffs:

Wide Receivers

The biggest key to having a great wide receiver corps is implementing the QB and RB strategies from steps one and two above. By waiting at QB until round six or seven and grabbing two or three RBs early, you have the fourth, fifth and sixth or seventh rounds (and possibly the third round) to grab quality WRs. And this is exactly what you should do.

By the end of round four, you should have at least two quality RBs and one or two quality wide receivers.

Although a team constructed like this won't have a horse like Randy Moss, it should end up with a great team full of players in very secure situations. These players are also great for trading after the draft.

There is almost always great value late in a draft at wide receiver too, and this year is no exception. But you will want the core talent to build around (especially in start 3 WRs leagues - which this article is based on).

Here are the WRs I believe will have exceptional value in the draft:

Some other WRs will undoubtedly slip in your drafts besides the above targeted bargain list. In recap, grab one or two solid receivers in your first four rounds and add at least one more in rounds five and six. Then wait for exceptional value to emerge at WR because it always does.

Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates are in a class by themselves. If you can get either of these in the fourth round, leap and don't think twice. If you are lucky enough to land one of these players, simply look to add an additional value WR later. Most of us won't be this lucky however.

But fear not. There are always bargains at the tight end position.

It's no surprise that since TEs catch a relatively small amount of passes primarily on short and intermediate routes (again, excluding the top tier guys), there isn't a great deal of variance usually between the 4th best TE and the 12th best, witness:

So ultimately, once you get past the big TEs, you're really debating over a point or two per week (which is why it is wise to just wait until the later rounds to select a TE).

In 2002, I told you to wait and get Todd Heap (great). In 2003, I targeted Stephen Alexander (bust) and Freddie Jones (solid). In 2004, I nailed Daniel Graham (great early and then faded).

The TE I love this season is Ben Troupe. But there is a problem. Ben Troupe may start the year injured. But lucky for you, Erron Kinney (the other TE from Tennessee) will be asked to pick up the slack. The ADPs of these two TEs are as follows:

I fully expect the combination of these two players to yield results on par with a Top 5 TE.

Why do I love the Tennessee Tight Ends?

First, the team has but one viable receiver in Drew Bennett. Derrick Mason is gone and the WR2 spot will be filled with either a rookie or someone with extremely limited experience. The team would like Tyrone Calico to win this role, but it remains to be seen if he can get healthy enough to be a contributor. Additionally, the Titans are expected to have a below-average defense meaning they may be forced to throw a lot this season. Offensive Coordinator Norm Chow has already stated that they will lean on their TEs this year. And lastly, Troupe was an animal down the stretch last year. So if you can afford the roster spots, I advocate locking up both Kinney and Troupe.

Another tight end that I believe is under-valued is Jeb Putzier. Early reports from Denver show Stephen Alexander running with the first team, but that is likely due to Putzier not 100% healthy right now. I fully expect Jeb to win the job by the start of the season. He can likely be picked in the 11th round or later.

Because quality TEs can usually be had on the waiver wire, once you have one TE (or the Tennessee handcuff above), you should generally just wait until the last few rounds of your draft to add a backup.

Place Kickers

Who cares right? Well...kind of right. Definitely nothing you should even look at until round 12. But all drafts are different. In leagues that go after kickers early, just wait. You can get an adequate PK three rounds after every other owner has their first. In leagues that sluff this position until real late, look towards the top of the kicker list in round 12. If your top kicker is available then draft him. Suffice it to say that in a lot of leagues now, people wait too long to take their kickers. As a rule of thumb, you can generally maximize kicker value by taking the fifth or sixth kicker off the board. In waiver wire friendly leagues (most), don't be afraid to just draft one kicker and add others as necessary to cover the bye weeks and/or exploit matchups.

Defenses

The top defenses (Baltimore, Buffalo, New England, and Pittsburgh) will not represent value in most leagues this year. Just like kickers, your league may draft defenses early or very late.

Scoring systems generally come into play and define when defenses are taken.

I suggest you wait until round 12 to assess what to do next. If Baltimore or Buffalo are on the board grab them, and be done with this position. If those two teams are gone, I would wait until six to eight defenses have been drafted and then see where the value is.

Because owners rank defenses so differently, you can generally get good value just by waiting for the value to emerge.

A winning strategy to deploy after the draft for defenses is simply to look two games ahead in the waiver process. Most teams will have one or two defenses meaning that half of the defenses are available as free agent pick ups each week. By looking two to three weeks ahead at who will be playing San Francisco, Cleveland or the New York Giants, you likely can find a cheap defense that should perform well against sub-par competition. Drop this defense after their "quality game" so that you can continue to pick up other defenses that will have good weeks. Because of this strategy, we advise you to draft but one quality defense and look to play matchups the rest of the way. Every year two or three defenses are predicted to be terrible but end up playing great.

Putting It All Together

Look to draft two or three of the elite 20 RBs unless significant value exists elsewhere. Make these backs the centerpiece of your team.

QB value is available throughout the draft so just wait until it emerges. Grab one QB in the sixth or seventh round and then add a "value QB" in rounds 10-12. Consider taking a flier with your last pick on a QB that could be a goldmine with a key injury. If you draft on the turn (first or 12th) look to get both Detroit QBs with back-to-back picks.

Grab at least one quality WR (in rounds two through four), stockpile two more solid contributors in rounds five and six and then wait for value to emerge. It always does. Stockpile value wide receivers. Some will bust, but others will help you win your league. Guys like Michael Clayton emerge from deep in the draft every single year.

Sluff TE unless Gonzalez or Gates slides to the fourth round. If you don't get one of the Big Two TEs wait until after round ten to draft your first tight end. Target both Tennessee Tight Ends very late in the draft for exceptional value.

Sluff defense, but don't be afraid to grab the first or second one in round 12. If defenses go earlier than normal, wait for 6-8 defenses to be picked before you take your first. Do not add a second defense (or if you do, add it very late). Work the waiver wire weeks ahead of great matchups for value.

Sluff kicker, but don't be afraid to grab the first or second in round 12. If kickers go early, take the firth or sixth kicker off the board. Wait until the last rounds to add a second kicker.

Well that is it folks. Hope you all do well in your coming drafts. Remember, the key is not to just follow the Top 200 list but to see where it differs substantially from average drafts. This is how you get value. And value is how you build winning fantasy teams.

Note: I know there is more than one way to have a great draft. I have seen teams take players like Manning and Moss with their first two picks and run away with titles by picking undervalued players the rest of the way. I am not going to state that this article is the ONLY way to be successful in your twelve team draft. It's simply one way to end up with a very competitive team.