For the uninitiated, playing daily games on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. FootballGuys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of the RBs and TEs on both FanDuel and DraftKings for Sunday and Monday.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for either GPPs or cash games (sometimes both). GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value (based on salary) for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
GPP TIGHT ENDS
Antonio Gates (Primarily GPP; FD: $5800, DK: $4400). Gates will be lowly-owned this week because he only saw 1 target all of last week, while Ladarius Green saw 6 targets. A closer look into their stats shows that Green was ran only 9 pass routes, while Gates ran 24 routes; thus, Green was targeted on 67% of his routes, an unsustainable rate moving forward. Moving into this week against Jacksonville, both TE's have been hampered by hamstring tightness, but Gates is practicing fully, while Green was limited on Thursday and did not practice at all on Friday, indicating that he may not play on Sunday. If Green is out, bump Gates up to a cash play against this Jacksonville defense.
Owen Daniels (GPP only; FD: $5100, DK: $4100). Now that Dennis Pitta is on injured reserve, the Ravens will look to his replacement, Owen Daniels, to pick up the slack. Daniels is a steady receiver with upside, as evidenced by his 2-touchdown performance against the Steelers in Week #2; his floor, however, is still quite low because it is unknown how many of Pitta's targets will fall to Daniels and how many will be redistributed among the Smith's (Steve & Torrey). Because of the upside, but low guaranteed points, Daniels is GPP-only.
Martellus Bennett (Primarily GPP; FD: $6000, DK: $5700). Last week, I gave you Martellus Bennett in the very column and he exceeded his salary expectations with a 2-touchdown performance against the Jets on Monday Night Football. This week, his salary is unchanged on FanDuel and risen only 10% on DraftKings. With questions still surrounding the Bears' wide receivers, Cutler may elect to keep feeding the ball to Bennett, who is catching almost 80% of passes thrown his way. In a potential high-scoring game against the Packers, Bennett makes a nice contrarian GPP play because most people will either spend (Graham) or go cheap (Kelce) at the position.
CASH GAME TIGHT ENDS
Jimmy Graham (Cash and GPP format; FD: $8200, DK: $7500). Graham disappointed DFS gamers last week, but the only thing his poor stat line did was to bring his salary down for a juicy matchup against the Dallas Cowboys. Simply put: The Cowboys cannot defend against the Tight End position. They have given up 3 touchdowns and nearly 300 yards to guys named Vernon Davis, Lance Kendricks, Delanie Walker, and Jared Cook this year; imagine what 6'7" Jimmy Graham can do to this squad! Graham should anchor your cash game plays this weekend.
Rob Gronkowski (Cash and GPP format; FD: $7600, DK: $5700). Last week was the first week that Gronk played > 50% of New England's offensive snaps. He was on the field in the redzone, caught a touchdown pass, and bobbled a second touchdown after a defender tipped it at the line of scrimmage; Gronk finished the day with a respectable 12-point (FanDuel scoring) performance, but it coud have been nearly 20 if he had managed to hang onto that tipped pass. This week, Gronk has told the media that he expects to "keep rolling," which can only mean that he will see an uptick in snaps and opportunities. His depressed salary on DraftKings is particularly appealing.
Travis Kelce (Cash format only; FD: $5200, DK: $3700). Another tight end who is seeing increased snaps is Travis Kelce. Kelce is the best receiver on the Chiefs, but has missed playing time due to an inability to run block (per Andy Reid). That said, he is either learning to block very quickly or Andy Reid has finally figured out that Kelce needs to be on the field to activate the Chiefs' passing game because his snap count has increased each week. At near-minimum salary on both major sites, Kelce appears to be in a prime position to reach value for cash games, when salary restrictions will not allow you to roster guys like Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski.
GPP RUNNING BACKS
Khiry Robinson (Primarily GPP; FD: $4900, DK: $4800) Robinson is another one of those guys making a repeat apperance in this column this week. Last week, I recommended him as a GPP running back because I suspected he would see the lion's share of carries in the Saints' backfield after Mark Ingram was injured; Robinson did, indeed, see the majority of the carries, while Pierre Thomas saw the passes from the backfield. Despite calling the game plan correctly, it was Thomas who got the sole goalline carry and subsequent touchdown. If Khiry Robinson sees another 18 carries this week against the Cowboys, he will not yield goalline carries to Pierre Thomas again. At less than $5000 on both sites, Robinson has immense upside and could be a borderline cash game play, if your remaining salary calls for it.
DeAngelo Williams (Primarily GPP; FD: $5700, DK: $3900) The Carolina backfield is a turnstile of medical dilemmas. All three of the Panther RB's have missed time this season and it seems that DeAngelo Williams is the odd man in this weekend against the Baltimore Ravens; both Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert have knee issues and Tolbert was placed on injured reserve earlier this week. The matchup against the Ravens is not ideal, but Williams will get all the carries out of the backfield and should even see a few looks in the passing game--if he manages 20 carries and 2-4 receptions, he has nice upside for a very reasonable salary.
Fred Jackson (Primarily GPP; FD: $6300, DK: $4900). Fred Jackson is a fantastic GPP play because nobody likes to roster him due to the fact that he splits time with C.J. Spiller. The truth is that Jackson is a high-upside play every week because he is the Bills' RB choice in the redzone, he gets a lot of reception targets, and he still gets ~ 10 opportunities from the halfback position each week. In fact, Fred Jackson has outsnapped C.J. Spiller in every game this year. This week, he gets a favorable matchup against the Houston Texans, who are giving up 5.2 yards per carry on the season including a 24-point performance by Rashad Jennings just last week. Advantage: Jackson.
Matt Asiata (Primarily GPP; FD: $6300, DK: $4500). Asiata is not a flashy player and has mostly disappointed since taking over Adrian Peterson's role in the Vikings' offense. However, Asiata appears to be the RB who will continue to see 12-16 carries each game, as well as another 5+ targets in the passing game; with no real competition and a rookie Teddy Bridgewater taking over the reigns this week, Asiata could find himself even more involved if Bridgewater decides to check down to the RB when under pressure. Asiata looks to have more value on DraftKings, where the full PPR is in effect and because his salary is more reasonable on that site.
CASH GAME RUNNING BACKS
Eddie Lacy (Cash & GPP format; FD: $8000, DK: $5600). Despite his poor finishing stat lines, Eddie Lacy has not looked like a bad running back. Instead, Lacy's lack of fantasy output rests squarely on the caliber of his opponents--all are ranked in the top of the NFL against the rush (Seahawks are 5th, Jets are 2nd, and Lions are 6th). This week, Lacy gets the Bears, who were one of the worst rush defenses in 2013 and are off to a similar start this year, as evidenced by their 5.0 yards per carry against by opposing running backs. Lacy will get his chance for redemption this weekend and his depressed salary offers great value to DFS gamers.
Donald Brown (Cash & GPP format; FD: $6300, DK: $5400). There is not much analysis necessary to see why Donald Brown is a perfect cash game play this weekend. Brown is the sole running back remaining after Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead have gone done with prolonged injuries over the past few games; last week, when Woodhead left the game, the Chargers leaned heavily on Brown, giving him 31 carries, a career-high. While he likely will not see 31 carries again this week, 20+ carries is entirely reasonable against this Jacksonville front 7 that ranks last in the NFL against the run (160 yards/game). The Chargers are 14-point favorites, projected to score 30 points, and Brown's salary is low, which makes him close to a must-play in cash game format.
Lamar Miller (Cash format; FD: $6900, DK: $6200). Since Knowshon Moreno left the Dolphins' Week #2 game with an elbow injury, Lamar Miller has been the bellcow running back in Miami; Miller is averaging nearly 6 yards per carry on the year and gets an enticing matchup against the Oakland Raiders in London on Sunday. The Raiders surprised last week by shutting down the Patriots and Steven Ridley, but despite that single successful effort, they are still ranked next-to-last in the NFL against the run (158.7 yards/game). Miller should also see a few receptions to help boost his fantasy value. At his current salarly, Miller's high floor makes him an attractive option for cash games.
Le'Veon Bell (Cash & GPP format; FD: $8800, DK: $7400). Do yourself a favor and watch Le'Veon Bell this weekend. Bell has looked spectacular despite running behind an offensive line ranked in the bottom 10 in the NFL. The slimmer 2014 version of Bell is heavily involved in both phases of the Steelers' offense; he has nearly 500 combined yards through the first three games. This week, he sees a Tampa Bay Bucs' defense that is hemorrhaging 31.7 points per game. If the Steelers continue to commit to Bell as they have done thus far, his fantasy output should be in line with his salary at the major DFS sites.
Matt Forte (Cash & GPP format; FD: $8600, DK: $7800). Like Eddie Lacy, Matt Forte has disappointed the fantasy football world in 2014. Forte's opening effort against Buffalo was decent, although it did not yield a touchdown; his subsequent games were poor, but, like Lacy, came against opponents who are tough against the run (Niners and Jets); it is ironic that both of these running backs look to end their fantasy droughts in a game against one another this weekend. In Forte's case, he gets the 27th-ranked NFL defense against running banks, who have been equally permissive to pass-catching running backs, a real strength of Matt Forte, who has caught 19 passes on 24 targets on the year. Forte is priced at a discount due to his struggles, but look for him to bounce back this week against this Packers' defense.
For last-minute advice, player decisions, and injury news on Sunday morning, tune into the “NFL Gameday” webcast at 11:30 AM (EST) on RotoGrinders Live, where John “tipandpick” Lee, Al “Al_Smizzle” Zeidenfeld, and Dan “DB730” Back will analyze all NFL Week #1 games. You can find the webcast at: https://rotogrinders.com/live. All other daily fantasy questions can be directed to John’s Twitter page at: https://twitter.com/tipandpick