Consistency, thy name is St. Brown
Consistency is one of the most valuable—and rare—commodities in fantasy football. The weekly volatility of most wide receivers makes them difficult to rely on without a strong supporting cast, a favorable scheme, or ideal matchups. But Amon-Ra St. Brown has proven to be the exception.
Over the past two seasons, St. Brown has delivered elite production with remarkable reliability. He is one of the few wide receivers who consistently produces like a top running back in fantasy scoring formats—high floor, explosive ceiling, and dependable availability. He's the type of player fantasy managers can build around.
Let's examine why.
A Two-Year Track Record of Excellence
St. Brown got off to a bit of a slow start as a rookie in 2021. This was to be expected from a wide receiver drafted in the 4th round, but hopes for St. Brown were a little higher as he entered a Detroit wide receiver room desperate for someone to step up as a playmaker. It wasn't until November of his rookie year that the Lions began to emphasize him in the offense. Following a brutal Week 8 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in October of that season, Lions coach Dan Campbell said the Lions needed to figure out ways to get St. Brown more involved in the offense. By Week 12, the Lions had figured out how to do it, and neither the team nor St. Brown himself has looked back since.
Over the past two years, as the Lions' offense has soared, St. Brown has been a main cog.
Let's take a look at his weekly fantasy production for the 2023 and 2024 seasons. These numbers presume 1 point for every 10 receiving yards, 1 point per reception, and 6 points per touchdown with bonuses of 1 point for touchdowns over 40 yards and 2 points for touchdowns over 50 yards.
2023 Weekly Fantasy Points
| Week | PPR Points | Week | PPR Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19.1 | 10 | 33.5 |
| 2 | 17.2 | 11 | 21.7 |
| 3 | 22.6 | 12 | 18.5 |
| 4 | 16.6 | 13 | 12.9 |
| 5 | DNP | 14 | 5.1 |
| 6 | 33.4 | 15 | 27.2 |
| 7 | 26.2 | 16 | 31.6 |
| 8 | 19.8 | 17 | 22.1 |
| 9 | BYE | 18 | 33.4 |
In 2023, St. Brown scored 360.9 points for an average of 22.55 per week. Standard deviation is a tool used to measure volatility, which is another way of talking about consistency. The lower the standard deviation, the better. For 2023, St. Brown had a standard deviation of 7.78 points from his mean score of 22.55. That means, with a little rounding for ease, that in any given week he had a floor of around 16.5 points and a ceiling of around 30.5.
Another way to consider consistency is to look at a player's boom/bust record. We define a boom week as more than 20 fantasy points and a bust week as under 8 points; St. Brown had nine boom weeks against only a single bust week.
Turning to 2024, we see similar results.