If You're Not (A) First, You're Last
If you're reading this, there's a good chance you love football. Our collective fandom has an insatiable appetite for NFL-related content, which has turned the fantasy football industry into a 12-month, 365-day endeavor. The "offseason" is a misnomer, as we all watch free agency with feverish zeal, and then our attention turns to the NFL Draft. We watch excitedly as teams use seven rounds of picks to bolster their rosters and further build training camp depth with undrafted free agent signings.
RELATED: See a look at Quarterback Draft Capital here.
RELATED: See a look at Running Back Draft Capital here.
RELATED: See a look at Wide Receiver Draft Capital here.
Historically, it was easy to ignore rookie tight ends. The positional demands of learning blocking schemes and route-running meant a prolonged adjustment process. Many of the NFL's all-time best tight ends struggled to make their mark as rookies:
- Antonio Gates (TE20)
- Tony Gonzalez (TE19)
- Jimmy Graham (TE23)
- Shannon Sharpe (TE34)
- Jason Witten (TE23)
But something strange has happened over the last two seasons. Not only did rookie tight ends make a fantasy impact, they ranked No. 1 overall at the position:
- Brock Bowers, TE1 (2024)
- Sam LaPorta, TE1 (2023)
Here's the good news: unlike the other fantasy skill positions, cracking the rookie tight end code is easy. If they weren't a first-round draft pick, you can probably ignore them.
Numbers Don't Lie
- 145 tight ends were drafted from 2015 to 2024 (10 seasons).
- 15 of those (10%) finished in the Top 24, which is the threshold for full-season fantasy relevance in 12-team leagues that start one tight end plus at least one flex spot.
- Only 5 (3%) finished as top-12 fantasy tight ends.
Now let's look at those tight ends with draft capital added to the conversation.
| Player | Year | Recs | RecYds | TDs | Fantasy Points | TE Fantasy Rank | NFL Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Bowers | 2024 | 112 | 1,194 | 5 | 261.4 | 1 | 1 |
| Sam LaPorta | 2023 | 86 | 889 | 10 | 234.9 | 1 | 2 |
| Kyle Pitts | 2021 | 68 | 1,026 | 1 | 176.6 | 6 | 1 |
| Evan Engram | 2017 | 64 | 722 | 6 | 172.2 | 7 | 1 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 2023 | 73 | 673 | 2 | 152.3 | 11 | 1 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 2021 | 60 | 497 | 7 | 151.7 | 13 | 2 |
| Noah Fant | 2019 | 40 | 562 | 3 | 114.2 | 14 | 1 |
| Chris Herndon | 2018 | 39 | 502 | 4 | 113.2 | 17 | 4 |
| Mark Andrews | 2018 | 34 | 552 | 3 | 107.2 | 18 | 3 |
| Hunter Henry | 2016 | 36 | 482 | 8 | 132.2 | 19 | 2 |
| Dallas Goedert | 2018 | 33 | 334 | 4 | 90.4 | 21 | 2 |
| George Kittle | 2017 | 43 | 515 | 2 | 106.5 | 21 | 5 |
| O.J. Howard | 2017 | 26 | 432 | 6 | 105.2 | 22 | 1 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 2022 | 32 | 450 | 3 | 95.0 | 24 | 4 |
| Devin Funchess | 2015 | 31 | 473 | 5 | 108.3 | 24 | 2 |
- 6 of 15 (40%) were first-round picks.
- 5 (33%) were drafted in the second round.
- 1 (7%) was a third-rounder.
- 2 (13%) were fourth-round picks.
- 1 (7%) was a fifth-round pick.
- 0 (0%) sixth-rounders ranked.
- 0 (0%) seventh-rounders ranked.
- 0 (0%) undrafted rookie free agents ranked.
For further context, here are the 10-year hit rates for rookie wide receivers, by round:
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