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This week we discuss the following:
- Dynasty wide receivers
- Call your shot!
- Worrisome matchups
- "Chopping the pot"
- Week 16 vs. Week 17 Championships
Dynasty wide receivers
Who are your top five dynasty wide receivers right now?
Adam Harstad: The "top five" designation is a little bit arbitrary at receiver right now, as there are six guys that I view as essentially interchangeable, based on their youth, their talent, their situation, and their history of production.
Calvin Johnson is one of the greatest wide receivers to ever play the game, and he's capable of unbelievable statistical feats. For some, the fact that he's 2-4 years older than the next crop of up-and-coming studs is enough to knock Calvin out of the number one spot, but there's really no way to keep him out of the top five. Calvin is currently putting the finishing touches on a third consecutive number one finish at the position, despite the fact that he missed a game earlier this season.
If Calvin is not your number one dynasty WR, odds are good that A.J. Green is. His worst fantasy season amounted to a WR14 finish ... in 15 games ... as a rookie. For comparison, Calvin was 34th as a rookie and 21st in his third year. The speed with which Green has established himself as a perennial top-10 fantasy receiver is amazing. In fact, A.J. Green is already sixth in fantasy points by a receiver through three seasons (standard scoring), and needs just 58 more yards or one more touchdown to pass Bob Hayes and join the top five. In PPR, Green is even more impressive, as he needs just 10 receptions to tie Anquan Boldin's mark for the most through three seasons in history. Only Jerry Rice and Randy Moss have scored more fantasy points through three seasons (PPR scoring) than A.J. Green.
Julio Jones suffered an injury this season that robbed him of a chance to upstage Green, but his pace through the season's first five games was eye-opening. Julio was likely to have fallen off some, but had he managed to maintain that pace, he would stand above Green on every one of those lists, and would finish his third season within spitting distance of Jerry Rice in points through three years (PPR scoring), a mere eight points back. Even with the injury, Jones edges Green in points per game by 1/100th of a point in standard scoring, and falls just a few tenths of a point behind Green in PPR. Outside of one Calvin Johnson, Julio is the biggest physical freak in the league, and Atlanta traded a king's ransom to draft him in the top five after an absurd combine performance. He is coming off of a second career foot injury, after previously suffering a similar injury in college (which, scarily enough, actually left him hampered at the combine), but our own Dr. Jene Bramel has expressed no long-term concerns over Julio's health. In addition, while they're both crazy young, Julio is still a year younger than A.J. Green, which might become a factor several years down the road.
Dez Bryant entered the league with several character concerns, but who has largely kept his nose clean and done his job. Dez wasn't quite as early of a bloomer as Green and Jones, but he's made up for lost time over the last two seasons with a pair of top-10 finishes, including one of the most dominant 8-game stretches any fantasy receiver has ever had, with 879 yards and 10 touchdowns. Dez already ranks sixth all-time in receiving touchdowns through four years, and another pair of scores will put him into the top five. With 11 touchdowns this year, Dez has already joined a pretty exclusive list of active players with back-to-back double-digit touchdown seasons: Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Brandon Marshall, Roddy White, Rob Gronkowski, Antonio Gates ... and one other guy who we'll get to in a second.
Demaryius Thomas entered the league in the same draft class as Dez Bryant, and the two receivers have become as linked as A.J. Green and Julio Jones over the years. Both receivers had little impact as rookies, showed flashes of brilliance as sophomores, and then set the league on fire over the last two seasons; in fact, just five fantasy points separate the two receivers in 2012 and 2013, with Thomas barely edging out Bryant. Demaryius Thomas is also the final member of that list of active receivers with back-to-back 10+ touchdown seasons. Thomas is a year older than Bryant, and it's fair to question how much his production is helped by playing with Peyton Manning, but Thomas also excelled with Tim Tebow at quarterback; and with Decker and Welker slated to hit free agency in the next two years, he might be getting a lot more targets going forward. Additionally, Thomas was initially drafted over Bryant because of his squeaky-clean character.
Percy Harvin won't get a lot of love alongside those other five names, but he absolutely deserves to. While he's been in the league longer than any of them save Johnson, he's still yet to celebrate his 26th birthday. Moreover, his entire career arc absolutely screams star. Harvin was the number one high school recruit in the nation as a Senior, he was the most talented player on a pair of national championship teams in college, he was a first-round pick in the draft, he was the offensive rookie of the year in his first season, and he was traded for a superstar package (a first-, a third-, and a seventh-round draft pick) and given a superstar contract ($67 million). A lot of people fixate on his receiving numbers, which are underwhelming, and ignore the fact that Harvin already has more rushing yardage than any other receiver in history, as Minnesota frequently lined him up in the backfield as an RB and gave him traditional handoffs, including a few goal line carries. Adding his rushing and receiving yards together, Harvin averaged 61.7 yards per game as a rookie, 69.6 yards per game as a sophomore, 82 yards per game in his third year, and 85.9 yards per game in his fourth. In his final 16 games in Minnesota, Harvin had 116 receptions, 1492 offensive yards, and 11 offensive touchdowns, despite essentially losing his entire last game to injury. I distinguish between injured and injury prone, and so far, Harvin seems more like the former than the latter, which makes him a 26-year-old superstar locked into a long-term contract to play with arguably the best young quarterback in the game. In addition, Percy Harvin is the best kickoff returner in the NFL, and in leagues that reward return yardage, that bonus could easily be enough to push Harvin up to number one in the receiver rankings.
There are a lot of other phenomenal young receivers right now, as the NFL is just awash with ridiculous talent at the position. Every other option carries with it slightly more risk than those six names, though. Josh Gordon is at risk for a yearlong suspension at any moment. Alshon Jeffery doesn't have quite the track record of success, and had a history of mailing it in in college. Randall Cobb is also extremely young and plays with perhaps the best quarterback in the league, but he likewise doesn't have the track record of success. Victor Cruz isn't nearly as talented as any of these other names, as demonstrated by his struggles to get a large contract this last offseason. There are a lot of amazing receivers in that second tier that I would absolutely love to own, but none are as bulletproof as the top six guys. While there's a clear difference AFTER the top six, I view the differences within the top six as negligible and mostly just personal preference.
Andy Hicks: One's overall dynasty philosophy comes into play here. Some people look one year ahead, some look three, some even five years ahead.
The top five receivers in 2018 are likely to include at least two players who haven't even been drafted yet. A player of superior talent might fall to a run first-team or one who has an average quarterback. By then guys like Andre Johnson and Wes Welker are likely to be out of the league. Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Drew Brees will probably be retired as well, leaving their currently dynamic offenses outdated and new systems dominating the passing game.
The top five receivers in 2016 are likely to include at least one player who hasn't been drafted yet. Another player is likely to be someone who hasn't shown much on the stat sheet to date in his first or second season. Maybe a Justin Hunter or a Robert Woods type.
To me, I can only look at 2014 when evaluating my top five. Sure I'll have an alert on up-and-comers like Cordarrelle Patterson or DeAndre Hopkins, but when we are talking elite receivers, potential only counts for so much. Production has to be an important element for this group. Of course if they only have a good year or two left then they are unlikely to be in my top five as their upside is limited.
I'm not going to talk about each receiver, but I have 22 guys that merit discussion in this debate. My first list of cuts is those guys who have lost significant time in 2013 to injury. Adam may be right about Julio Jones and Percy Harvin long-term, but guys who miss more than 10 games are difficult to trust in the following season. If they come back strong in 2014 then I'll obviously re-evaluate. For now I take out Julio Jones, Percy Harvin, Michael Crabtree and Randall Cobb.
Next if we are talking dynasty, age is going to be a factor in 2015 onwards. Each receiver has a different age when the cliff hits; some guys lose a step and significant production at 30. Others are still studs at 34. The guys I chop here are still WR2s or better, but not top five. Gone are Andre Johnson, Vincent Jackson, Larry Fitzgerald and Wes Welker.
Next I'm going to remove guys who have significant issues at quarterback, are in offenses that may see a change in strategy in 2014, or may have too much competition for the ball. Pierre Garcon, Victor Cruz, Jordy Nelson and Eric Decker lose out here.
Some guys who are not as good as the players listed above have fallen through the cracks and are in my last 10 to be mentioned. These are very good receivers, but ones I hesitate to call dynasty elites. DeSean Jackson has benefitted from the offense in place and the absence of Jeremy Maclin. History shows us that Jackson has good years and bad. Not an elite receiver. Keenan Allen has had a brilliant rookie season, but is still young and inconsistent. He may show in 2014 that he is worthy for discussion, but for now I have to exclude him. Antonio Brown has been sensational in his fourth year and is a true WR1 this year. I'd be a lot more comfortable considering him if I knew what Pittsburgh was going to do with all aspects of their offense next year. Josh Gordon as Adam mentioned is a case for a yearlong suspension at any moment. Success and poor decision-making have a habit of destroying young careers. He'd need to do what he is doing now for two more years, get a long extension with the Browns (or whoever else) and have stability at quarterback before he makes my top 5.
That leaves me with six. Four guys Adam has mentioned (Johnson, Bryant, Thomas and Green) and two he touched on. I will eliminate one of the Chicago receivers and it will be the elder player in Brandon Marshall. Marshall makes my top six, but he is the one to go when I cut it to 5.
Some of the plays Alshon Jeffrey is making right now are just freakish. Adam has marks against him for mailing it in in College, but the right mentors and coaching should knock that out of him quick smart. Jeffrey is a player of supreme skill and likely to be elite for years to come. He fills in the five spot.
I put Demaryius Thomas at four, purely because I don't know how much longer Peyton Manning can keep playing to this level. Eric Decker, Wes Welker and Julius Thomas also make it difficult to be consistently elite as well.
Next I have A.J. Green who concerns me a little. He has been phenomenal and Adam points to his place in history already, but how much upside does he have left in him? Andy Dalton is not going to be an elite quarterback and I wonder how long before Cincinnati implodes. Marvin Lewis has been head coach for a long time, and consistently being one and done in the playoffs is going to get tired very quickly. I ultimately view Green more as a top 12 dynasty prospect as things change, but for 2014 he has to be rated highly.
Dez Bryant is my number two. He looks like Terrell Owens 2.0 on the field and my only concerns with him are temperament and the Dallas play-calling. Surely Dallas will change direction in 2014, and with Romo under center, Bryant is a certain top-five receiver, but how much more will Bryant be able to take of the clown-school management with the Cowboys?
Calvin Johnson is my clear number one. If you had to design a receiver, you couldn't do it better than what he is. Fast and a giant of a man. Fantastic hands and a gun-slinging quarterback. Injury is the only thing standing between him and a fourth season of absolute dominance.
Kyle Wachtel: In order, I'd go with Calvin Johnson (age 28) 2), A.J. Green (age 25), Dez Bryant (age 25), Alshon Jeffery (age 23) . . . and then a tie between Josh Gordon (age 22) and Julio Jones (age 24).
Both Gordon and Jones have the talent to lead all receivers in points next season, but they both have their own concerns. Gordon is one misstep away from a yearlong suspension, but he's proven how dominant a player he can be (he has a chance to lead all receivers in fantasy points even with a two-game suspension) and has done that without the benefit of decent quarterback or even knowing who his quarterback will be week-to-week. Jones on the other hand has the benefit of a young quarterback that he can continue to grow with in Matt Ryan (age 28), but his injury concerns are something that you have to factor in. You'll have to be prepared in the event his foot injury resurfaces down the road.
It now seems that Alshon Jeffery produces a highlight reel catch each week and his talent is undeniable. The biggest plus outside of his talent is that I have the utmost confidence in Marc Trestman's offense. Whether it's Jay Cutler, Josh McCown, or another quarterback down the road, the Chicago offense should continue to move the ball down the field and the future is very bright for Jeffery.
The accolades of Bryant and Green are both well documented, so I'll instead explain why the nod goes to Green for myself. Although Tony Romo (age 33) should be entrenched as the starter for a few more years, there is some turbulence in Dallas. While in Cincinnati, Andy Dalton (age 26) has played well enough to not worry about the Bengals' future at the position. Additionally, Bryant also has the injury concerns with his back that seem to return to the headlines every once in a while.
Johnson is the clear number one for as well. He's simply a dominant force at the position and as Harstad mentioned, Johnson has a chance to three-peat as the leading wide receiver in total fantasy points. Matthew Stafford (age 25) has a big arm and plenty of years ahead of him; he'll continue to feed the future Hall of Famer affectionately known as Megatron.
Will Grant: In my top dynasty positions, I want guys who can consistently perform in the top 10 at their position for at least two or three years down the road. Guys that I can basically set them and then forget them in my lineup.
In my number one spot is Calvin Johnson. No brains needed here. A lot of guys like A.J. Green better because he's younger but year after year, we say that Detroit needs to find a legitimate #2. Year after year they don't, and Calvin has to be their go to guy again and again. You're talking about a guy who is going to get 10-12 targets a game, and has the size and ability to score double-digit touchdowns year after year. He's the guy that you want on your team if you can pick only one dynasty (or redraft) wide receiver.
After that is A.J. Green. Age gives him a bit of a boost here and as others have mentioned, he's been as consistent as they come. A lot of guys might argue that Green is a little better and I can see their point. But I feel like Cincinnati continues to add weapons whereas Johnson is still the go-to guy there, even with Reggie Bush in the mix. I wouldn't cry if I had either of them.
I'd go with Dez Bryant next. Man, do I love Bryant's talent! And as Kyle pointed out, Tony Romo is going to be there for a long time as well. Miles Austin looks like he's moving on, and Jason Witten is getting up there in age, meaning Bryant could become Dallas's version of Calvin Johnson pretty quickly. For me, the maturity factor moves him down a peg, though. Bryant has been known to throw temper tantrums on the sideline and gets down if he isn't involved in the offense early. If opposing teams scheme against him well enough, you can take him out of the game mentally and that's enough to make me take Calvin or Green over him.
Fourth on my list is Demaryius Thomas. Thomas may outlast Peyton Manning and Wes Welker in Denver, but he's still going to perform extremely well with whoever replaces them. He's a guy with a hell of a lot of talent and is a big play threat every time he touches the ball. He's a guy that you can stick into your lineup and auto-start him every week.
I'll go out on a limb with my fifth spot and pick Brandon Marshall. This one is a bit of a gamble, and I actually like that Kyle recognizes that Alshon Jeffery has real long term potential. But as long as Jay Cutler is the quarterback in Chicago, Marshall is the guy that you want to have. Cutler is a free agent after this season, but in the end, I think Chicago is going to re-sign him to a long-term deal. The devil you know is better than the devil that you don't, and I think Cutler's second year in a Marc Trestman offense will be fun to watch. Marshall is his go-to guy. Yeah he drops a few more balls than you'd like, but you can pencil him in for 100 receptions and he's already logged his seventh consecutive 1,000-yard season. The key with Marshall is the consistency around him. Assuming Chicago locks in Cutler, Jeffery, Martellus Bennett and Matt Forte are all under contract for the next several years. As these guys improve, it's going to be harder and harder to double-team Marshall week after week. And Cutler is going to get him the ball if he's on the field. I think Marshall rounds out the top five of guys that you can stick in your lineup and worry about other positions from week to week.
Andrew Garda: As with everyone else here, for me it's a combo of consistency in past (both recent and longer term) against future promise.
Calvin Johnson is at the top of the list. He doesn't have to be but it seems like he should be. Especially with double-digit touchdowns coming back. He's still young for a receiver at 28 and no matter how many people are put on him, he cannot be covered.
A.J. Green is next. He could challenge Calvin Johnson if he had a consistent quarterback. He piles up the yards though and at some point he will overtake Johnson. He's still producing at the team adds those weapons Will mentioned, and actually those players should continue to make it hard to do to Green what teams try (unsuccessfully) to do to Johnson.
Dez Bryant is third. He may be a petulant child but (a) he still plays well, and (b) I wish I had someone as passionate about playing and winning on the Jets. Now, as Will also mentioned, you can get in his head and I'd like to see him realize that and change it. But he's already overcoming a lack of a consistent number two and so shouldn't be bothered a ton when Witten leaves and Austin disappears again.
Demaryius Thomas is fourth. I agree that he'll be a factor beyond Peyton Manning's tenure in Denver, and we've seen his talent the last two years. He has had a few games where he disappeared both this year and last, so consistency is a little of a concern, but he is a guy I think will get better and better as years go by.
Alshon Jeffery rounds out my top five. I give him the edge over fellow Bears receiver Brandon Marshall and fellow young gun Josh Gordon for a couple of reasons. Marshall because of age—I think they both produce consistently over the next few years and so I'd rather have Jeffery. And he's here over Gordon because Gordon is one idiotic decision away from a yearlong suspension and his quarterback situation is less stable—not that that slowed him down the latter half of this year. Jeffery is fiercely talented and I love how aggressively he attacks the ball in the air. He's begun to dominate and will get better as the seasons pass.
There are a few rookies who deserve honorary mentions here. Cordarrelle Patterson is looking like a very good prospect, and I liked what I saw in DeAndre Hopkins early—though with the mess that is the quarterback situation in Houston, we don't know his ceiling. But I also love Keenan Allen and he seems to have been widely overlooked as, I guess, a one-year wonder. But there isn't a lot on San Diego to pull coverage off him and Philip Rivers loves his steady hands and ability. I really think all three receivers (and Tavon Austin) will develop into good fantasy options, but right now I feel like Allen is developing more quickly and may have as high a ceiling as anyone in the class.
Call your shot!
Pick one player that you think will outperform most people's expectations this week.
Adam Harstad: With the playoffs fast approaching, league records within sight, and the Broncos needing a win to retain home-field advantage, I expect them to beat up on the poor Houston Texans. Knowshon Moreno rightly gets a lot of love in the rankings, and he's having a fantastic season, but I see Denver easing up on his workload a little bit to try to keep him fresh for the games that really matter. Montee Ball has been getting more than 35% of Denver's snaps and 40%-50% of Denver's touches over the last three weeks, and the Broncos seem to be very confident in his ability to perform. I see Moreno and Ball getting more of a 60-40 or even 50-50 split, and in a typical week in that offense, that means both are worthy of starting. I think Knowshon Moreno is slightly overrated by the current consensus, Montee Ball is reasonably underrated, and both will be solid RB2-type plays this week.
Ryan Hester: Jordan Todman surprised many last week with his strong performance against Buffalo. He should have another high-RB2 type of week if Maurice Jones-Drew is once again unable to play. Should Jones-Drew suit up, Todman's ceiling is obviously limited. Another player that should exceed his expected value is Michael Crabtree. He's fully healthy and getting back into the offensive flow at the perfect time for a playoff push. This Monday night, he gets an Atlanta team that gave up on their season long ago and isn't likely to be looking forward to traveling across the country. None of those intangibles even mention the very real fact that Atlanta's defense is very porous and has allowed big numbers to players at all positions so far this season.
Andy Hicks: I think Kirk Cousins is being undervalued this week. Washington will be able to pass on the Cowboys with ease, as is evidenced by Matt Flynn and Josh McCown's four-touchdown, 300-yard performances over the last two weeks. Kirk Cousins is at least as good as those guys and Washington will be showcasing Cousins in the hopes of getting a high draft pick for him next year.
Will Grant: Everyone is picking LeSean McCoy to beat the Bears this week on Sunday night, but I'm thinking that DeSean Jackson is the guy that is going to put the nail in their coffin. Chicago is very soft in their secondary, especially at the safety position. Their run defense is terrible and I think that the secondary is going to have to cheat up to try to contain the run. That makes them extremely vulnerable to the play action pass and Jackson is going to be able to kill them if he can run deep over the middle. McCoy is going to do his damage, but when Chicago moves up to stop him, Jackson is going to go over the top and burn them deep.
Andrew Garda: Washington's Pierre Garcon is a great play this week. He's a guy who has been slowly improving over the course of the season and seems to be Kirk Cousins' guy. He's safe enough for a WR3 but his upside is big this week. He could end up with top-ten wide receiver numbers. Dallas' defense is putrid—really not much better than the Atlanta defense Garcon just torched. Offensively, they may run out to a big lead, but that plays into Garcon's hands (and yours) anyway because Washington will pass more and Dallas will just get complacent and play even worse defense. He's a downfield threat that the Cowboys lack an answer for and should be in line for another big game.
Kyle Wachtel: Ryan Fitzpatrick currently sits at #12 in my weekly quarterbacks rankings and I'm rolling him out with confidence in a matchup against Jacksonville. Since Week 10, his 19.6 fantasy points per game ranks seventh best among quarterbacks over that span. He's fresh off a 402-passing yard, 4-touchdown performance and last time out versus the Jaguars, Fitzpatrick threw for 264 yards and two touchdowns, while adding 13 rushing yards and another touchdown.
Worrisome matchups
Which presumed starter would you feel most uncomfortable with in your lineup in week 16?
Adam Harstad: It's hard to doubt Drew Brees against the Panthers, especially after the beat down he gave them two weeks ago in the Superdome. At the same time, it's awfully hard to trust Drew Brees against the Panthers, especially after the egg he laid in his last two road games against good defenses. An entire half worth of garbage time production helped Brees salvage his fantasy day last week, but if he fell behind big again, would he be able to do it for a second week in a row? The truth is, most Drew Brees owners aren't going to have another option that can credibly compare - you certainly aren't going to bench him for Kirk Cousins - but I'd imagine there are a few Brees owners who also own Nick Foles or Philip Rivers, and their decision at quarterback might well determine the fate of the championship this year.
Andy Hicks: For reasons of circumstance I am choosing Alfred Morris. Washington will be showing off Kirk Cousins to the entire league, while Dallas will run the ball this week in an attempt to prove that they don't have to rely on Tony Romo throwing the ball 800 times a game. Unless Washington gets a big lead early, I don't see Morris being a useful contributor, despite the Cowboys having a run defense that is CFL standard.
Logically, Morris should be running on every play, but two franchises that are mired in mediocrity will do the exact opposite of what this game situation dictates. Both defenses are poor and the weather forecast is good so it could be a high scoring shootout, but with these two teams and their lame-duck coaches you can never be 100% sure of logical thinking.
Kyle Wachtel: Chris Johnson. His fantasy value has been kept afloat by touchdowns (eight of them in the past eight weeks), but he's still averaging just 3.7 yards per carry on the year and hasn't even eclipsed 4.0 yards per carry in any of the past four games. Additionally, his carries are down. In the season's first 12 games, he averaged 17.1 carries per game. In the past two games, he's only averaged 12.5 carries, which may be partly due to the return of Shonn Greene. Also, while Jacksonville may sound like a good matchup (allowing 4.15 yards per carry to opposing running backs on the year), they have played much better lately; in the past six games, they've allowed only 3.26 yards per carry to opposing backs. Not to mention, Johnson managed only 30 yards on 12 carries in the Week 10 game versus the Jaguars—he did also add 43 yards on five catches, but with a lost fumble to boot in that game.
Ryan Hester: I'd be very nervous starting anyone from Atlanta this week. Monday night should be a bloodbath, with San Francisco suffocating Atlanta and dominating them on both sides of the ball. Due to the likely game script, Steven Jackson is the Falcons player with whom I'd feel the least comfortable. While Jackson has shown signs of being the player many drafted as their RB1 or high-class RB2 this season, this particular matchup isn't one that suits him. Atlanta should be behind most of the game, and in those situations, they often turn to Jacquizz Rodgers. There are many better options than Jackson this week.
Will Grant: I think DeMarco Murray could be a disappointment this week—but for the exact opposite reason that Andy think's that Alfred Morris is a risk—because I think Tony Romo is going to try to prove that he can win in December. Dallas and Washington are bitter enemies and both teams are struggling this season. Dallas continues to underperform and find creative ways to lose games in the fourth quarter. Washington is looking to show that their season wasn't a total loss and they would love to end Dallas's chance of sneaking in the back door to the playoffs. I think that the defense plays hard at home and shuts down the run, giving Romo the chance to beat them or beat himself.
Andrew Garda: Regarding Will's choice, if Dallas throws the ball as much as they can this week—and yet again ignores that they have a running back who can average seven yards a carry (like last week), then they are idiots and Jerry Jones should shut the franchise down. It's baffling to watch that offense.
My own biggest concern is Reggie Bush against the New York Giants. Sure, the Giants lack anything to play for but pride—and we've seen how little pride many of them have—and they aren't rated as a good run defense. But consider the laundry list of running backs they have kept under 100 yards: Alfred Morris, DeMarco Murray, Eddie Lacy, Rashad Jennings, LeSean McCoy (twice), Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, Jamaal Charles, and last week, Marshawn Lynch was held to 47 yards and 2.9 yards per carry. Lynch did get a touchdown but that was not a good performance.
People are quick to point out that the Giants allow 107 yards a game, but they're currently the 13th-rated run defense and have absolutely been murder on individual running backs. As you can see, no stud is immune. On top of all that, the Lions will happily run Joique Bell as well as Bush. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Bush underwhelmed this week.
"Chopping the pot"
What's your philosophy on "chopping the pot" when it comes to your fantasy championship? (By that I mean, let's say that first place pays $100 and second place pays $50. The two remaining teams might decide to take $75 each regardless of the outcome, or they might decide to split it $85-$65 instead of $100-$50 so as to reduce variance.)
Do you think it detracts from the competitive spirit of the league? Do you think it's a perfectly rational decision? Both? Neither?
Andy Hicks: When there is big money involved I can understand, but if I were in the final and were offered this outcome I'd refuse ... as long as there was a second prize. If it were a winner-take-all pot, I'd be more willing to listen. Then again I'd hate to win it all and feel like I cost myself some money.
I do think it does detract slightly from a competitive league. Either change the rules concerning payouts or live with them. The winner is still the winner, though, and despite any agreement between the two parties, someone still wins the league.
Kyle Wachtel: The fantasy football season is a grind and it takes two sides to make a deal like that. Making the playoffs is more an accomplishment of skill than winning a championship and so when two owners make it to that point, they have the right to make any deal they feel is fair. With that being said, I personally wouldn't consider a deal in the event that I'm already guaranteed money. However, in the first round the playoffs, where I've already done my job and earned a spot, I'm open to ensuring that I get some return on my investment instead of being left with nothing to show for it.
Ryan Hester: Whether or not your leaguemates decide to "chop" a pot isn't anyone's concern but theirs. Even if a rule was put in place to stop it, the two could very easily make a chop "off the record" without anyone knowing. In fact, in one of my leagues, the pot has been chopped in two separate seasons. I was the Commissioner, and I didn't find out about it until months later. What people want to do with their own money is up to them. As long as the decision is mutual, I have no problem with it.
On a personal note, I wouldn't chop a pot unless I was at a very distinct disadvantage. This scenario is pretty rare considering that teams to advance to their fantasy Super Bowls are typically quite good. If for some reason, you had one or two key players go down to injury in Week 15 and you somehow still won, that might be a good occasion to ask for a chop. However, in such a situation, you're less likely to get a favorable response as the other owner is likely to realize he (or she) is a big favorite to win the matchup.
Will Grant: The purist in me says that chopping the pot shouldn't be allowed. There is a reason that a league is set up where the top team gets the top money and the second place team takes home substantially less. That being said, Ryan is right—if the owners decide to split the pot, that's really up to them and they've earned that right making it to the final two spots. If they want to do that, let them do it.
I can see the point behind it. I've seen plenty of championship games where the 'top' team didn't come out as the winner. Last year I won a league and I can clearly remember showing off my lineup against the other guy to friends saying 'I have zero chance of winning this'—and having people offer me congrats on second place before the game was played. But he had a bad week with his top RB and two of his top three receivers scoring less than 10 points total and my kicker had five field goals, including three of more than 50 yards. Strange things happen and on paper, I would have been crazy to decline a chance to split the pot before the game started.
Andrew Garda: I don't have an issue with chopping the pot. As was mentioned, it's your cash, do what you will. I've never played in a winner-take-all league so I can't speak to that, though I myself would be more likely to split if that was the case.
Still, as Ryan says, unless I really felt I was at a huge disadvantage (hey how did you get Manning, Calvin Johnson, Josh Gordon, Alshon Jeffery, Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch and Jimmy Graham on one team?) I probably wouldn't split. And even then, you never know what can happen—we've seen a lot of variables screw things up before.
Anything can happen. I'd prefer to play things out and take my chances.
Week 16 vs. Week 17 Championships
Many leagues have their championships in week 16 instead of week 17, but does it really make much a difference? Is week 17 really so terrible that it's better to take the week off than to play another week of fantasy football?
Andy Hicks: It always depends on how many teams have nothing to play for. Each week brings us closer to having fewer teams with something to play for. If every NFL team has something to play for in week 17, then great, a fantasy Super Bowl in week 17 makes sense. But that rarely happens.
This year, nine teams in the AFC have playoff aspirations and ten teams in the NFC do. Only one of those teams (Indianapolis) has clinched its division and even they can still play for third seed rather than fourth.
In Week 17, only half of those 19 teams will have something to play for as some will be knocked out of contention and others will have secured divisions and seeding positions. The teams that aren't in the playoffs will already be looking to next year or playing to spoil. Some week 16 matchups may be affected, but week 17 is where teams really consider the future of players who need experience, potential trade bait, and those on the borderline of playing for the club next year
Week 17 is a terrible week to play a championship unless there are truly deep rosters that can handle the likes of, for example, Peyton Manning resting for half a game or Seattle playing its second-string defense.
Kyle Wachtel: I'm very opposed to Week 17 championships in fantasy football. Any tweaks that I can make to increase the skill involved, whether that's expanding starting rosters or using total points as the deciding factor for Wild Cards, I'm in favor of. Each season, much of the playoff positioning has been decided by Week 16 and hosting a fantasy championship in Week 17 would be akin to playing a fantasy championship in Week three of the preseason. If you want to get in on the action, there's always daily fantasy, but I'm also aware of some leagues that put money to the side for a Fantasy Pro-Bowl, in which money will go to the highest scoring owner for that week.
Ryan Hester: Having the fantasy championship in Week 17 is unfair. The season is too long, and if you've advanced, you've made too many good draft picks, trades, pick-ups, and start-sit decisions to have your title come down to which NFL teams choose to play hard or not. Fantasy football, by its very nature, can be (at least in part) a luck-based game. Throwing even more chance into the equation isn't what fantasy owners should want. Say no to Week 17 Super Bowls.
Will Grant: Having your championship before week 17 is sort of like having fire insurance. Until you need it, you feel like you are wasting your money. But if you need it, you're glad that you did. The last couple seasons, there have been plenty of teams still in the hunt for a playoff spot in week 17 and the 'rest your studs' thing hasn't applied, simply because teams are either trying to secure a playoff spot or home field advantage. But take the Seahawks this week as an example—if they win, they have home field advantage locked up and a first round bye. If your team made it to the championship round with Russell Wilson or Marshawn Lynch as one of its starters, you can count on both of them playing less than a full game in week 17—the week that you need them the most. Now maybe that doesn't happen in a lot of leagues this year... but if you are the guy holding one or both of them, you're going to be very glad that your championship ends this week instead of next.
Andrew Garda: There are so many variables in Week 17. I think it risky, but whether there is "something to play for" varies year to year. This year we have a ton of teams in the hunt for Wild Card spots and division titles. Last year was a few less. I will echo what Will said, though, and say that the "rest your studs" thing is less of a factor since they changes up schedules and we have a lot more divisional games at the end of the year.
It could be, in the near future, that Week 17 becomes more of a reasonable championship week.
Any final words of wisdom regarding fantasy championships?
Andy Hicks: If you are in the final, good luck! Don't overthink your starting lineup and continue doing what got you there in the first place. There would be nothing worse than losing a championship because your hunch that Tiquan Underwood was gonna go off doesn't pan out while you have DeSean Jackson sitting on the bench.
Kyle Wachtel: For anyone that's competing for a fantasy football championship this week, you've done a helluva job, so congrats on your success! Sure, bragging rights and money may be on the line, but make a serious effort to simply enjoy the games. Do your research, set your lineups, then sit back and enjoy watching everything play out.
Will Grant: As other guys have mentioned—fantasy football is such a crazy form of entertainment. You need only look at the confidence pool and pick'em contests from last week to see that even guys who know a lot about football have a hard time knowing the outcomes. If you're lucky enough to make the playoffs or even the finals of your league—enjoy it for what it is and try not to overthink your lineups. If you win it all—great! Enjoy the spoils of victory. If you come up short, be happy that you made it farther than 80% of the other guys in the league. It's too easy to get down on yourself for making the wrong decision this late in the season—just relax and enjoy it for what it is—a game that's designed to give you a deeper appreciation for football in general. Good Luck and Have FUN!
Andrew Garda: I'll steal something from Bloom's twitter musings: trust your gut. It got you this far. There are times you thought all the experts were insane and followed your muse and yet here you are in the finals. So trust yourself. With any advice you get, even from Footballguys, it's up to you to weigh that advice and then make the ultimate call yourself.
And enjoy it. Set your lineups and stop worrying about it as of 1pm Sunday. Getting into the finals is a rare treat, so allow yourself a moment to appreciate how awesome you are.
That will do it for this edition of the Footballguys Roundtable. Please join us again next week.