Against The Spread Pool: Week 8 - Footballguys

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (18) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.

Please note, that this contest should NOT be viewed as direct sports wagering advice, especially later in the season. Since the staff is trying to beat one another, picks may be made to go against the grain in an attempt to try and catch up in the standings. This example of game theory is more in tune towards playing a contest such as this - so again, do not use these picks as direct advice towards which games to pick each and every week. Rather, use these picks to see the top choices each week, especially by the staff members towards the top of the standings.

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

Here are the results from last week:

Vegas Winners - Over 52.8% Hit Rate
Over 50% Hit Rate

NFL Week 7 was a runaway victory once again, this time for Sean Settle who was 12 for 14 with his picks, missing only with the Chargers and Falcons both winning but failing to cover the point spread. Andrew Garda was two picks off that pace with James Brimacombe, Keith Roberts and Phil Alexander all tied with nine correct selections for Week 7. The staff overall was slightly more correct than not, struggled slightly, even with Atlanta (14) and the Chargers (13) costing the staff the most. The staff ended the week at 129-123 (51.2%), raising the overall staff record to 932-1,085 (46.2%).

Checking the overall standings, six staffers have winning records (over 50%) for the year with 54 or more wins out of 107 contests through seven weeks. Four of the six staffers are beating the Las Vegas success rate needed to win overall (52.3% or better), with Alex Miglio (60) slightly leading Devin Knotts (59), Phil Alexander (58) and Jeff Haseley (58) in a close race. Just over 41% of the season is behind us, so there is plenty of time for the staff to catch up the rest of the way.

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week:

CONSENSUS WINNERS

(Note - 17 of 18 sets of picks are in as of late Wednesday night).

Week 8 sees a change with the staff nearly reaching consensus on a few picks this week. Miami (15 of 17) is the top favorite, as most of the staff are not buying into Houston even at home on a short week against Brock Osweiler and a banged up Dolphins team. Six of fourteen games have the staff riding on underdogs in Week 8, a relatively high number, but all but the Dolphins are close (9 to 11 picks out of 17). New England, Cincinnati and Philadelphia all come in with 14 of 17 of the staff siding with these three franchises, and all but the Bengals are road favorites. Two home favorites (Kansas City - 12 and Minnesota - 12) round out the top staff picks for Week 8. Carolina (11) and Seattle (10) are two underdogs with slight leans by the staff, while five franchises (Seattle, Green Bay, Indianapolis, Washington and Chicago) come in with ten picks. Two games are razor thin with San Francisco and Cleveland slightly favoring the road underdogs, 9-8. The staff has a good shot for a good week if all the picks play out in their collective favor for Week 8, and as usual it will be fun and interesting to see how the week plays out.

ODDS AND ENDS

Nearly half of the season is now gone, and the next set of picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.

A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the profitable zone (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder than it might seem.

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

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