Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (18) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.
Please note, that this contest should NOT be viewed as direct sports wagering advice, especially later in the season. Since the staff is trying to beat one another, picks may be made to go against the grain in an attempt to try and catch up in the standings. This example of game theory is more in tune towards playing a contest such as this - so again, do not use these picks as direct advice towards which games to pick each and every week. Rather, use these picks to see the top choices each week, especially by the staff members towards the top of the standings.
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
Here are the results from last week:
|
Road Team:
|
OAK
|
ATL
|
KC
|
DET
|
CHI
|
PIT
|
TB
|
NYJ
|
HOU
|
LAC
|
LAR
|
GB
|
TEN
|
|||
|
Home Team:
|
SF
|
WAS
|
CLE
|
MIN
|
BUF
|
BAL
|
CAR
|
MIA
|
DEN
|
SEA
|
NO
|
NE
|
DAL
|
|||
|
Favorite:
|
SF
|
WAS
|
KC
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
BAL
|
CAR
|
MIA
|
DEN
|
SEA
|
NO
|
NE
|
DAL
|
|||
|
Point Spread:
|
-3.5
|
-1.5
|
-8.5
|
-5.5
|
-5.5
|
-3.5
|
-6.5
|
-3.5
|
-2.5
|
-1.5
|
-1.5
|
-6.5
|
-6.5
|
|||
|
Staffer
|
The Picks
|
MNF
|
LW
|
Total
|
||||||||||||
|
Sean Settle
|
OAK
|
ATL
|
KC
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
PIT
|
CAR
|
MIA
|
HOU
|
LAC
|
NO
|
NE
|
DAL
|
48
|
11
|
71
|
|
Jeff Pasquino
|
OAK
|
ATL
|
KC
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
BAL
|
CAR
|
NYJ
|
HOU
|
LAC
|
LAR
|
NE
|
TEN
|
43
|
9
|
65
|
|
Jeff Haseley
|
SF
|
WAS
|
KC
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
PIT
|
CAR
|
NYJ
|
HOU
|
SEA
|
LAR
|
NE
|
TEN
|
40
|
9
|
74
|
|
Mark Wimer
|
SF
|
WAS
|
KC
|
DET
|
CHI
|
BAL
|
CAR
|
MIA
|
HOU
|
LAC
|
NO
|
NE
|
DAL
|
48
|
9
|
62
|
|
William Grant
|
OAK
|
WAS
|
KC
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
PIT
|
CAR
|
MIA
|
HOU
|
LAC
|
LAR
|
GB
|
TEN
|
44
|
9
|
68
|
|
Bear Heiser
|
OAK
|
ATL
|
KC
|
DET
|
CHI
|
PIT
|
TB
|
MIA
|
HOU
|
LAC
|
LAR
|
GB
|
TEN
|
46
|
8
|
65
|
|
Keith Roberts
|
OAK
|
ATL
|
KC
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
PIT
|
CAR
|
NYJ
|
HOU
|
LAC
|
LAR
|
GB
|
DAL
|
42
|
8
|
67
|
|
Aaron Rudnicki
|
OAK
|
ATL
|
CLE
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
PIT
|
TB
|
NYJ
|
HOU
|
SEA
|
NO
|
GB
|
TEN
|
40
|
7
|
64
|
|
Alex Miglio
|
SF
|
WAS
|
KC
|
MIN
|
BUF
|
PIT
|
TB
|
MIA
|
DEN
|
SEA
|
LAR
|
NE
|
TEN
|
45
|
7
|
74
|
|
Andrew Garda
|
OAK
|
WAS
|
KC
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
PIT
|
CAR
|
MIA
|
HOU
|
SEA
|
LAR
|
GB
|
DAL
|
45
|
7
|
59
|
|
Dave Larkin
|
OAK
|
WAS
|
KC
|
DET
|
CHI
|
PIT
|
TB
|
MIA
|
DEN
|
LAC
|
NO
|
GB
|
TEN
|
40
|
7
|
68
|
|
Devin Knotts
|
OAK
|
WAS
|
CLE
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
PIT
|
CAR
|
MIA
|
DEN
|
LAC
|
LAR
|
NE
|
DAL
|
44
|
7
|
68
|
|
James Brimacombe
|
OAK
|
ATL
|
KC
|
DET
|
CHI
|
PIT
|
TB
|
NYJ
|
HOU
|
LAC
|
LAR
|
GB
|
TEN
|
47
|
7
|
68
|
|
Justin Howe
|
OAK
|
WAS
|
KC
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
PIT
|
TB
|
MIA
|
HOU
|
SEA
|
LAR
|
GB
|
TEN
|
44
|
7
|
66
|
|
Matt Bitonti
|
SF
|
WAS
|
CLE
|
DET
|
CHI
|
PIT
|
CAR
|
NYJ
|
HOU
|
SEA
|
NO
|
GB
|
TEN
|
48
|
7
|
59
|
|
Danny Tuccitto
|
OAK
|
WAS
|
CLE
|
DET
|
BUF
|
PIT
|
CAR
|
NYJ
|
HOU
|
SEA
|
NO
|
NE
|
TEN
|
49
|
6
|
63
|
|
Andy Hicks
|
SF
|
WAS
|
CLE
|
DET
|
CHI
|
BAL
|
TB
|
MIA
|
DEN
|
LAC
|
LAR
|
GB
|
TEN
|
44
|
5
|
63
|
|
Phil Alexander
|
OAK
|
ATL
|
KC
|
DET
|
BUF
|
PIT
|
CAR
|
NYJ
|
DEN
|
SEA
|
LAR
|
GB
|
TEN
|
40
|
5
|
70
|
Vegas Winners - Over 52.8% Hit Rate
Over 50% Hit Rate
NFL Week 9 was a clear win for Sean Settle, who walked away with 11 of 14 games correctly selected for the week. Four staffers (Jeff Pasquino, Jeff Haseley, Mark Wimer, and Will Grant) landed two picks back at 9-5 for Week 9. The staff overall had a strong week, going 135-99 (57.7%) with five group selections leading the way for victories. Wins by the Bears (15), Chiefs (13), Steelers (13), Texans (13) and Titans (13) more than counteracted losses with Oakland (13) and the Rams (12). The staff's collective strong performance raised the overall staff record to 1,194-1,336 (47.2%).
Checking the overall standings, eight staffers now have winning records (over 50%) for the year with 67 or more wins out of 134 contests through nine weeks. Three of the eight staffers are beating the Las Vegas success rate needed to win overall (52.3% or better), with Alex Miglio (74) now tied with Jeff Haseley (74) and both of them leading Sean Settle (71) in a close race. Just over 47% of the season remains, so there is plenty of time for the staff to catch up the rest of the way.
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Here are the picks for this week:
|
Road Team:
|
CAR
|
BUF
|
DET
|
WAS
|
ARI
|
NO
|
NE
|
JAC
|
ATL
|
LAC
|
MIA
|
SEA
|
DAL
|
NYG
|
|
|
Home Team:
|
PIT
|
NYJ
|
CHI
|
TB
|
KC
|
CIN
|
TEN
|
IND
|
CLE
|
OAK
|
GB
|
LAR
|
PHI
|
SF
|
|
|
Favorite:
|
PIT
|
NYJ
|
CHI
|
TB
|
KC
|
NO
|
NE
|
IND
|
ATL
|
LAC
|
GB
|
LAR
|
PHI
|
SF
|
|
|
Point Spread:
|
-4.5
|
-7.5
|
-6.5
|
-2.5
|
-16.5
|
-4.5
|
-7.5
|
-3.5
|
-4.5
|
-9.5
|
-9.5
|
-10.5
|
-6.5
|
-3.5
|
|
|
Staffer
|
The Picks
|
MNF
|
|||||||||||||
|
Jeff Pasquino
|
PIT
|
BUF
|
CHI
|
TB
|
KC
|
NO
|
NE
|
IND
|
CLE
|
LAC
|
GB
|
LAR
|
PHI
|
SF
|
44
|
|
Aaron Rudnicki
|
CAR
|
NYJ
|
CHI
|
WAS
|
ARI
|
NO
|
NE
|
JAC
|
CLE
|
LAC
|
MIA
|
SEA
|
PHI
|
NYG
|
44
|
|
Alessandro Miglio
|
CAR
|
BUF
|
DET
|
TB
|
ARI
|
CIN
|
NE
|
IND
|
CLE
|
OAK
|
MIA
|
SEA
|
PHI
|
SF
|
48
|
|
Andrew Garda
|
CAR
|
NYJ
|
CHI
|
WAS
|
KC
|
NO
|
NE
|
JAC
|
ATL
|
LAC
|
GB
|
LAR
|
PHI
|
SF
|
45
|
|
Andy Hicks
|
CAR
|
BUF
|
DET
|
WAS
|
ARI
|
NO
|
TEN
|
JAC
|
CLE
|
LAC
|
GB
|
LAR
|
DAL
|
NYG
|
51
|
|
Bear Heiser
|
CAR
|
NYJ
|
DET
|
WAS
|
KC
|
NO
|
TEN
|
IND
|
ATL
|
LAC
|
GB
|
LAR
|
PHI
|
SF
|
46
|
|
Danny Tuccitto
|
CAR
|
BUF
|
DET
|
WAS
|
KC
|
CIN
|
TEN
|
JAC
|
CLE
|
OAK
|
MIA
|
SEA
|
DAL
|
SF
|
49
|
|
Dave Larkin
|
CAR
|
NYJ
|
DET
|
TB
|
KC
|
NO
|
NE
|
IND
|
ATL
|
LAC
|
GB
|
SEA
|
PHI
|
SF
|
45
|
|
Devin Knotts
|
CAR
|
NYJ
|
DET
|
TB
|
KC
|
NO
|
NE
|
JAC
|
CLE
|
LAC
|
GB
|
SEA
|
PHI
|
SF
|
45
|
|
James Brimacombe
|
CAR
|
BUF
|
CHI
|
TB
|
KC
|
NO
|
NE
|
JAC
|
CLE
|
LAC
|
GB
|
SEA
|
PHI
|
NYG
|
47
|
|
Jeff Haseley
|
CAR
|
BUF
|
DET
|
TB
|
KC
|
NO
|
TEN
|
JAC
|
ATL
|
LAC
|
MIA
|
SEA
|
PHI
|
SF
|
40
|
|
Justin Howe
|
CAR
|
BUF
|
CHI
|
WAS
|
ARI
|
NO
|
TEN
|
JAC
|
ATL
|
LAC
|
GB
|
SEA
|
PHI
|
NYG
|
45
|
|
Keith Roberts
|
CAR
|
BUF
|
CHI
|
TB
|
KC
|
NO
|
TEN
|
JAC
|
ATL
|
LAC
|
GB
|
SEA
|
PHI
|
SF
|
46
|
|
Mark Wimer
|
CAR
|
BUF
|
CHI
|
WAS
|
ARI
|
NO
|
NE
|
IND
|
ATL
|
LAC
|
GB
|
LAR
|
PHI
|
SF
|
42
|
|
Matt Bitonti
|
CAR
|
NYJ
|
CHI
|
WAS
|
KC
|
NO
|
NE
|
IND
|
ATL
|
LAC
|
GB
|
SEA
|
PHI
|
SF
|
48
|
|
Phil Alexander
|
PIT
|
BUF
|
DET
|
TB
|
ARI
|
CIN
|
TEN
|
JAC
|
ATL
|
LAC
|
GB
|
SEA
|
PHI
|
NYG
|
43
|
|
Sean Settle
|
CAR
|
BUF
|
CHI
|
TB
|
KC
|
NO
|
NE
|
JAC
|
ATL
|
LAC
|
GB
|
SEA
|
PHI
|
NYG
|
42
|
|
William Grant
|
PIT
|
NYJ
|
CHI
|
WAS
|
KC
|
NO
|
NE
|
IND
|
CLE
|
LAC
|
GB
|
LAR
|
PHI
|
SF
|
41
|
CONSENSUS WINNERS
Week 10 has five teams dominating the picks, with four of the five sizable favorites. Philadelphia (16) and the Los Angeles Chargers (16) lead the way with all but two staffers going with the favorite, including the Chargers on the road (at Oakland). New Orleans (15, at Cincinnati), Carolina (15, at Pittsburgh) and Green Bay (14, hosting Miami) round out the top five, with the Panthers the only underdog in the Top 5 picks. Three teams garnered 12 of 18 votes (Kansas City, San Francisco, and Seattle), with three more squads one step back at 11 votes (Buffalo, New England, Jacksonville). Chicago (10) and Atlanta (10) are slight leans by the staff, with the Tampa Bay - Washington clash a dead heat. Overall the group is trending towards underdogs, as only four favorites (Eagles, Packers, Chiefs, and 49ers) were majority picks, and most of the picks also favoring road teams (8 of 13 clear decisions). This could be another big week for the staff if all the picks play out in their collective favor for this slate. As usual, it will be very fun and entertaining to check the results come Tuesday.
ODDS AND ENDS
More than half of the season is now gone, and the next set of picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.
A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the profitable zone (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder than it might seem.
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com
Against The Spread Pool: Week 10
