Against The Spread Pool: Week 11 - Footballguys

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Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (18) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.

Please note, that this contest should NOT be viewed as direct sports wagering advice, especially later in the season. Since the staff is trying to beat one another, picks may be made to go against the grain in an attempt to try and catch up in the standings. This example of game theory is more in tune towards playing a contest such as this - so again, do not use these picks as direct advice towards which games to pick each and every week. Rather, use these picks to see the top choices each week, especially by the staff members towards the top of the standings.

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

Here are the results from last week:

Vegas Winners - Over 52.8% Hit Rate
Over 50% Hit Rate

NFL Week 10 was a close call, with both Andy Hicks and Justin Howe getting 11 of 14 games correct. Andy won the week on the Monday Night Football total score tiebreaker, edging out Justin thanks to the final touchdown. Three more staffers had nine games correct while two more had eight. The staff overall had a solid week, going 130-122 (51.6%) with three of the top five group selections leading the way for victories. Wins by the Chargers (16), Saints (15) and Green Bay (14) more than counteracted losses with the Eagles (16) and Panthers (15). The staff's collective winning performance raised the overall staff record to 1,324-1,472 (47.4%).

Checking the overall standings, eight staffers now have winning records (over 50%) for the year with 75 or more wins out of 148 contests through 10 weeks. Four of the eight staffers are beating the Las Vegas success rate needed to win overall (52.4% or better), with Jeff Haseley (80) narrowly ahead of Phil Alexander (79), Sean Settle (79) and Alex Miglio (78) in a close race. Just over 45% of the season remains, so there is plenty of time for the staff to catch up the rest of the way.

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week:

CONSENSUS WINNERS

Week 11 has just two teams with a strong consensus for the staff, as Week 11 continues to prove to be a big challenge. The staff had a strong lean towards the New York Giants (15 of 18 picks), with Carolina receiving 14 votes on the road in Detroit as a road favorite. Three teams tied with 13 selections - Baltimore (hosting Cincinnati), Houston (at Washington) and Arizona (hosting the Raiders). Carolina and Houston are the only road favorite picks the staff favored this week. Other home favorites rounded out the majority picks with the Saints (12), Steelers (11), Rams (11), Falcons (10) and Chargers (10). Two underdogs on the road were slight majorities, as both Green Bay (at Seattle) and Minnesota (in Chicago) received 10 of 18 picks for the upset calls. One contest, Tennesee at Indianapolis, was split down the middle at 9-9. This could be an interesting week for the staff if all the picks play out in their collective favor for this slate. As usual, it will be very fun and entertaining to check the results come Tuesday.

ODDS AND ENDS

More than half of the season is now gone, and the next set of picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.

A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the profitable zone (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder than it might seem.

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

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