It's time to update my True Fantasy Points (TFP) math given what's happened in the first four weeks of 2018. If you're unfamiliar with how my TFP system works, here are the links to my preseason articles:

1. Quarterback TFP
2. Running back TFP
3. Wide receiver TFP

The Cliffs Notes version is that I calculate TFP by multiplying players' "true" efficiency stats by their opportunity, and then applying Footballguys' standard scoring system to the result:

1. For quarterbacks, my opportunity measure is pass attempts, and the efficiency stats I turn into "true" stats are Yards per Attempt (YPA), Touchdowns per Attempt (TDPA), and Interceptions per Attempt (INTPA).
2. For running backs, my opportunity measures are carries (in the running game) and routes run (in the passing game), and the efficiency stats I turn into "true" stats are Yards per Carry (YPC), Touchdowns per Carry (TDPC), Receptions per Route Run (RPRR), Yards per Route Run (YPRR), and Touchdowns per Route Run (TDPRR).
3. For wide receivers and tight ends, my opportunity measure is routes run, and the efficiency stats I turn into "true" stats are RPRR, YPRR, and TDPRR.

As an example, Marvin Jones has amassed 15 catches for 233 yards and 2 touchdowns, which translates to an Actual YPRR of 1.5 and an Actual TDPRR of 1.3% based on estimated routes run in 2018. And based on about 1,400 actual routes run in his Lions career, Jones' True YPRR is 1.7, and his True TDPRR is 1.1%, which means he "should" have 251 yards and 1.6 touchdowns on those 15 catches. If we apply Footballguys' standard coring system to both sets of numbers, we find that he's actually scored 35.3 points, whereas his "true" skill suggests 34.9 points (slight math discrepancy due to intentional rounding). This translates to a 0.4-point difference between standard points and TFP, which one can interpret as Jones being neither a buy-low or sell-high candidate. In essence, he's performing almost exactly on par with expectation.

So with everyone on the same page, find out which players are most likely to see their fantasy scoring pace slow down (or speed up) over the course of the next three months.

All tables below show actual standard fantasy points (i.e., "FBG"), TFP, and the difference between the two values for players that appear in the Top 300 of our Rest of Season rankings (sorted by the "DIFF" column for each position).

Quarterbacks

Below is the table for quarterbacks:

Sell High: Patrick Mahomes II II

No doubt, Mahomes has been great in his first four games as Kansas City's starting quarterback. However, his rate stats are completely unsustainable.

As the table shows, he's nearly 40 standard points ahead of where his "true" stats indicate he should be. For instance, he's currently throwing a touchdown on 10.1% of his passes, whereas the average for quarterbacks in the table is 4.9%. Given he's only thrown 173 passes with the Chiefs, these numbers translate to Mahomes' True TDPA being 5.0%. In other words, his Actual TDPA right now is more than double what his "true" skill suggests.

Similarly, Mahomes has yet to throw an interception in 2018. This, of course, means his Actual INTPA is 0.0%, which is significantly lower than his True INTPA of 2.4%.

Sell High: Jared Goff

Like Mahomes, Goff is currently benefiting from an Actual TDPA that dwarfs his True TDPA. Specifically, the latter is 4.9%, whereas the former is 8.2%. Even more absurd is Goff's 10.5 Actual YPA in 2018, which far exceeds his 7.6 True YPA.

In contrast to Mahomes, Goff has a reasonably large sample size, having thrown over 800 passes with the Rams, so these are arguably even larger statistical anomalies.

Buy Low: Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers is actually performing better than his "true" skills suggests when it comes to throwing interceptions (0.6% Actual INTPA vs. 1.8% True INTPA). However, he's underperforming his other two "true" rates by such a large extent that he still shows up at the bottom of the table. Specifically, based on a sample size of over 5,000 passes with the Packers, Rodgers' True YPA is 7.8, while his True TDPA is 6.0%. So far in 2018, his Actual YPA is 7.2, and his TDPA is 4.5%.

Perhaps losing Jordy Nelson this offseason has had a bigger negative impact than was believed at the time, but a stagnant running game and injuries to his current stable of wide receivers are also likely to blame. Once those factors work themselves out, Rodgers is poised to rebound.

Running Backs

Below is the table for running backs: