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In postseason fantasy football, predicting the correct number of games played for each team is crucial. This article, now in its eighth year, uses statistics to do just that. If you're interested in checking out past results, click any or all of the following links to previous installments:
Long story short with respect to methodology, I collect data from various sources (Football Outsiders, FiveThirtyEight, ESPN, Vegas Insider, Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus) and do some math to estimate each playoff team's probability of playing exactly one game, exactly two games, exactly three games, or exactly four games. (If you want to explore the gory methodological details, click on any or all of the above links.)
EXPECTED PLAYOFF GAMES PLAYED
Below is a table showing all probabilities for each of the 14 playoff teams, both in terms of normal postseason fantasy rules (EXP G) and "Super Bowl counts double" rules (ADJ EXP G):
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