Expected Playoff Games Played

Danny Tuccitto's Expected Playoff Games Played Danny Tuccitto Published 01/12/2022

In postseason fantasy football, predicting the correct number of games played for each team is crucial. This article, now in its eighth year, uses statistics to do just that. If you're interested in checking out past results, click any or all of the following links to previous installments:

Long story short with respect to methodology, I collect data from various sources (Football Outsiders, FiveThirtyEight, ESPN, Vegas Insider, Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus) and do some math to estimate each playoff team's probability of playing exactly one game, exactly two games, exactly three games, or exactly four games. (If you want to explore the gory methodological details, click on any or all of the above links.)

EXPECTED PLAYOFF GAMES PLAYED

Below is a table showing all probabilities for each of the 14 playoff teams, both in terms of normal postseason fantasy rules (EXP G) and "Super Bowl counts double" rules (ADJ EXP G):

Team (Seed) P(1) P(2) P(3) P(4) EXP G ADJ EXP G
Kansas City Chiefs (AFC2) 17.4% 28.2% 21.4% 33.0% 2.70 3.03
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC2) 23.6% 27.2% 25.5% 23.6% 2.49 2.73
Green Bay Packers (NFC1) 28.5% 31.1% 40.4% 0.0% 2.12 2.52
Buffalo Bills (AFC3) 36.6% 33.8% 10.1% 19.5% 2.12 2.32
Dallas Cowboys (NFC3) 37.6% 32.6% 15.8% 14.1% 2.06 2.20
Tennessee Titans (AFC1) 38.1% 35.6% 26.3% 0.0% 1.88 2.15
Cincinnati Bengals (AFC4) 30.9% 46.4% 14.7% 8.0% 2.00 2.08
Los Angeles Rams (NFC4) 36.8% 40.0% 12.7% 10.6% 1.97 2.08
New England Patriots (AFC6) 63.4% 17.6% 10.1% 8.9% 1.65 1.73
San Francisco 49ers (NFC6) 62.4% 25.9% 6.3% 5.4% 1.55 1.60
Arizona Cardinals (NFC5) 63.2% 27.8% 4.8% 4.2% 1.50 1.54
Las Vegas Raiders (AFC5) 69.1% 23.3% 5.2% 2.4% 1.41 1.43
Philadelphia Eagles (NFC7) 76.4% 18.3% 3.4% 1.9% 1.31 1.33
Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC7) 82.6% 12.4% 3.3% 1.7% 1.24 1.26

The main takeaway for playoff fantasy is that drafting Chiefs is a potential cheat code. Their 2.70 Expected Games is the highest since I've been doing these calculations. To boot, my math has only projected two previous teams for 3.00 or more Adjusted Expected Games -- 2016 Patriots (3.05) and 2019 Ravens (3.09) -- and both of those teams were 14-2 juggernauts almost guaranteed to play three games in the previous playoff format. (The Patriots did. The Ravens did not.)

Of course, everyone in your playoff fantasy league will be targeting Chiefs, so perhaps there's a sneakier edge to be found somewhere on the table. In that case, I'll hang my hat on drafting Cowboys and 49ers in hopes of emerging from Wild Card weekend with either the NFC 3-seed with an outsized probability of playing four playoff games ... or the team that upsets them. Not to mention the actual football of it all, what with both Dallas and San Francisco having multiple offensive playmakers.

PROJECTED PLAYOFF FANTASY POINTS

For the vast majority of non-running backs, I've used the player's scoring average along with their expected game totals above to calculate the expected FFPC points for both standard (Points) and "Super Bowl counts double" (Adjusted Points) contests. (Exceptions are indicated by asterisks.) For running backs, the position has been and remains so beset by uncertainty because of injuries, COVID, etc., that only 5 of the 14 playoff backfields -- Buffalo, Cincinnati, Dallas, Green Bay, and New England -- have in-season scoring averages that are reliable for playoff projection purposes. In my best attempt to resolve this, I've used Footballguys' Snap Counts tool to do some research about what each team's backfield timeshare is likely to look like in the playoffs, and have adjusted running back averages accordingly. (They're also indicated by asterisks.) With all of that said, my 2021 playoff fantasy projections are displayed in the table below:

Player Pos Team Points Adjusted Points
Patrick Mahomes II QB KC 67.8 76.1
Tom Brady QB TB 65.4 71.6
Josh Allen QB BUF 57.7 63.0
Aaron Rodgers QB GB 50.0 59.5
Dak Prescott QB DAL 49.1 52.5
Joe Burrow QB CIN 47.0 48.9
Matthew Stafford QB LAR 45.9 48.3
Ryan Tannehill QB TEN 36.1 41.1
Kyler Murray QB ARI 37.3 38.3
Jalen Hurts QB PHI 30.6 31.0
Jimmy Garoppolo QB SF 29.0 30.1
Mac Jones QB NE 26.9 28.4
Derek Carr QB LV 27.3 27.7
Photos provided by Imagn Images
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Projections Stats strategy Davante Adams Nelson Agholor Brandon Aiyuk Cam Akers Josh Allen Cole Beasley Odell Beckham Jr Eno Benjamin Brandon Bolden Kendrick Bourne Tyler Boyd Tom Brady A.J. Brown Joe Burrow Derek Carr Chase Claypool Randall Cobb James Conner Amari Cooper Gabe Davis Josiah Deguara Stefon Diggs AJ Dillon Chase Edmonds Bryan Edwards Clyde Edwards-Helaire Ezekiel Elliott Zach Ertz Mike Evans Anthony Firkser Leonard Fournette Pat Freiermuth Kenneth Gainwell Jimmy Garoppolo Dallas Goedert Cyril Grayson Jr. A.J. Green Rob Gronkowski Mecole Hardman Jr. Damien Harris Najee Harris JaMycal Hasty Darrell Henderson Jr. Derrick Henry Hunter Henry Tyler Higbee Tee Higgins Dontrell Hilliard Tyreek Hill DeAndre Hopkins Jordan Howard Jalen Hurts DeSean Jackson Josh Jacobs Van Jefferson Jauan Jennings Diontae Johnson Tyler Johnson Aaron Jones Julio Jones Mac Jones Ronald Jones II Zay Jones Kyle Juszczyk Travis Kelce Christian Kirk George Kittle Dawson Knox Cooper Kupp CeeDee Lamb Allen Lazard Marcedes Lewis Patrick Mahomes II Ray-Ray McCloud III Isaiah McKenzie Jerick McKinnon Jakobi Meyers Sony Michel Elijah Mitchell Joe Mixon Rondale Moore Foster Moreau Zack Moss Kyler Murray Samaje Perine Breshad Perriman Tony Pollard Dak Prescott Byron Pringle Jalen Reagor Hunter Renfrow Jalen Richard Demarcus Robinson Aaron Rodgers Ben Roethlisberger Chester Rogers Deebo Samuel Emmanuel Sanders Miles Sanders Dalton Schultz Boston Scott Devin Singletary DeVonta Smith Jonnu Smith Benny Snell Jr. Matthew Stafford Rhamondre Stevenson Ryan Tannehill C.J. Uzomah Marquez Valdes-Scantling Darren Waller James Washington Quez Watkins Antoine Wesley Nick Westbrook-Ikhine Darrel Williams Cedrick Wilson Jr. Jeff Wilson Jr.
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