With three games complete for dynasty teams the sample size is growing enough to establish whether contending or building type dynasty trades are optimal over the next couple of weeks. Here are ideal players and dynasty trade strategies heading into Week 4:
PRIMARY BACKUP RUNNING BACK ADD-ON
A strategy to apply to any dynasty trade is adding on a lower level primary backup running back to an essentially complete deal. The 'one-injury-away' running back is the highest leverage player asset outside of quarterbacks and tight ends in leagues which start two. Seek out the low-level backups who have no stand-alone impact or value but would be the unquestioned starter with an injury in front of them. Also, the key is adding a player the other GM will not quibble with as a part of the trade. Here are a few examples:
ROOKIE PICK ADD-ON
A parallel strategy to adding on a primary backup running back to an existing deal is shifting to rookie picks. There is a myriad of ways to include picks in a near-final trade including:
- Straight rookie pick request: Adding a future third or fourth-round pick to the deal
- Rookie pick round upgrade: Including your fourth-round pick for their third (or third to second upgrade)
- Upgrade within the round: If there is clarity on where in the round the picks project, move up from later to earlier
- Upgrade with a future year: Move a fourth in Y+1 for a third in Y+2 as an example
THE REDIRECT
When a dynasty trade is received there are multiple potential paths to venture down with a counter offer. A GM can be selling a particular asset, buying a particular asset, or targeting a specific position as general examples. Even if a GM does not like the specific offer sent, counter-offers including the same buying or selling asset are using the information to create acceptable deals. So if an example offer is James Conner for Devin Singletary and a 2020 1st, the redirect tactic is to send a different offer to buy Conner (withholding Singletary) or send a different offer to sell Singletary (or the 2020 1st). Either way, this alerts the other GM on the difference in cost of the assets and promotes the continuation of negotiation. A straight declination halts a potential trade without any information on what your buy-sell lines are for assets and players.
RUNNING BACKS
James Conner
Conner was a good back is a great system last season, which produced outstanding results. Fast forward to 2019 and the same good back is in an average-ish system. The results have been muted. Week 4 offers a promising matchup for Conner to 'get well' but overall, expectations have to change from a year ago as we look forward. The trade market is still decent for Conner and the two basic approaches are to use Conner to pivot upward or downward to another running back or flip him straight for a central rookie pick (future 1st). The good news is Conner can still pull a 1st from the market. Shoot for a team on the fringe of the playoff race or worse and add a depth running back. Conner may be on your starting lineup fringe and you would hardly notice a difference in your lineup decisions without Conner. Here are some recent trades involving Conner for ideas:
- Conner, Will Dissly, 20 1st for Christian McCaffrey
- Conner for Raheem Mostert, 20 1st
- Conner, Sam Darnold for Ezekiel Elliott (superflex)
- Conner, Chris Godwin for Odell Beckham
- Conner, Nick Chubb for Saquon Barkley
Wayne Gallman
Gallman *should* have been owned in all but the most shallow of dynasty formats considering his clear injury-away status behind Saquon Barkley. With the latest report of Barkley being out 4-8 weeks, there is a decent window to start or flip Gallman. The ideal return is a 2020 2nd (any), but through my own experience this week, that is a difficult execution unless adding a 20 3rd to the Gallman side, or settling for a projected early 20 3rd and a lower-level injury-away running back. One executed deal of mine was Gallman for Ryquell Armstead, 20 3rd (should be 3.01-3.04). Other recent deals for ideas include:
- Gallman for Damien Harris
- Gallman, 20 3rd for Mike Davis, 20 2nd
- Gallman for 20 2nd
Devin Singletary
Singletary has flashed early in his rookie season and now is working back from injury. The Bills are sneaky decent on offense and Singletary will get every opportunity for an expanded workload as the season progresses. Singletary is insulated as a Day 2 rookie, especially one already firmly in a committee (or better) in his opening month in the NFL. Singletary is an excellent pivot from sell options like James Conner or an outright target:
- Singletary, 20 1st for Mason Rudolph, Sony Michel, Marquez Valdes-Scantling (superflex)
- Singletary, Mecole Hardman for James Conner
- Singletary, Terry McLaurin for Austin Ekeler, Julian Edelman
Rashaad Penny
Penny is another recovering-from-injury young running back with pedigree. Chris Carson has fumbled consistently this season to earn a doghouse role and Seattle has three strong backs between Carson, Penny, and a finally-healthy C.J. Prosise. Penny is a pedigree bet as a Round 1 draft pick where the cream eventually rises to the top.
- Penny for Damien Williams, 20 2nd
- Penny, Peyton Barber for Devonta Freeman, Hakeem Butler
- Penny for Justin Jackson, 21 3rd
- Penny for Tom Brady
Kerryon Johnson
Johnson has looked far better than his box score through three games. Johnson has not been used enough in the passing game and, without a rushing touchdown, Johnson has yet to flash a big game to boost his tepid results. Stay the course and add ownership shares to your portfolio on the 22-year-old lead running back with an elite metric profile and early Day 2 pedigree in the meantime.
- Johnson for Darrell Henderson, Darren Waller
- Johnson, Chris Herndon for NKeal Harry, T.J. Hockenson
- Johnson, 20 1st for James Conner
Check out the Footballguys Staff Dynasty Rankings
Given the uniqueness of dynasty leagues, these rankings will not always be applicable to your specific league. These Dynasty rankings assume a One-Quarterback, PPR league with no Tight End Premium. If you have a question or feedback for a ranking, please reach out to that staff member.
