Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hall of Famer Bob Harris and Gary Davenport have over 50 years of experience as fantasy football analysts and have won three Football Writer of the Year Awards between them. They know their stuff—or at least that's what they tell themselves.
The 2025 NFL Draft has come and gone, and we now know where this year's top offensive prospects will begin their careers. In many instances, the draft went more or less as pundits expected, but there were most assuredly instances where it did not.
Just ask Shedeur Sanders.
Talent may be the most important factor in a young player's fantasy value, but situation and landing spot also have a significant impact. Now that we know who went where, Harris and Davenport have come together to examine how the draft impacted the value of the incoming rookie class.
Well, Harris did. Davenport just blathered like always.
Ward and Weak
To no one's surprise, Miami's Cam Ward was both the first overall pick of the Tennessee Titans and the first quarterback selected. However, just one more quarterback was chosen in Round 1—Jaxson Dart of Ole Miss to the New York Giants at No. 25.
Given that Ward should start right away, what do his fantasy prospects look like for 2025? Of the quarterbacks drafted outside Round 1, which one has the best chance of being fantasy-relevant in the next season or two?
Harris: As an immediate starter, Ward is of immediate interest in superflex dynasty formats. But even at that, he went with the fourth pick overall -- after Ashton Jeanty, Omarion Hampton, and Tyler Warren (in a TE-premium scoring format) -- in a league I'm in that holds our rookie draft before the NFL Draft. It's possible that Ward would have moved ahead of Hampton and Warren had the drafters involved known their landing spots, but the fact that the Titans' new starter wasn't the 1.01 (and I think Jeanty going there will be the norm) says something.
I think Derek Carr has checked out in New Orleans, but we'll find out soon enough if the shoulder issue he's dealing with sidelines him all season. I think the Saints wouldn't mind that outcome. I realize Tyler Shough is old -- or at least older (he'll turn 26 in September). But the Saints had other options here, and it strikes me that Kellen Moore knows a thing or two about quarterbacks. Shough is big and mobile, has a quality arm, works the entire field, and understands coverages.
Either way, I agree with our colleague Jason Wood, who contends Shough is the most likely quarterback other than Ward to start more than 50 percent of his team's games this year.
Davenport: It's hard to argue with any of what Harris said about Ward—I expect he'll be the 1.02 in Superflex rookie drafts, but with all the offensive uncertainty in Tennessee (an iffy WR room, shaky offensive line and so on) enthusiasm regarding his prospects in one-QB leagues will likely be tempered. However, Ward's scrambling ability is a sizable boost to his fantasy value, and if the Titans use him properly and that (allegedly) upgraded line holds up, the youngster could surprise.
In the redraft rankings here at Footballguys, Ward is currently QB26, behind the likes of Bryce Young of the Carolina Panthers but ahead of Matthew Stafford of the Los Angeles Rams. A low-end QB2 sounds about right, although again, Ward's ability as a rusher could potentially offer a higher fantasy ceiling than guys like Geno Smith of the Las Vegas Raiders.
I'm also in lockstep that Shough is the best bet among the rest of an admittedly blah rookie class to see significant playing time under center as a rookie—the Saints and Carr appear headed toward a messy divorce. But keep an eye on the muddied mess in Cleveland—I don't think Kenny Pickett will be on Cleveland's roster by Week 1, and it wouldn't be a huge upset if the Clowns decide to just roll out Dillon Gabriel or Shedeur Sanders over Joe Flacco's corpse.
Jeanty and the Jeantettes
Ashton Jeanty of Boise State was drafted sixth overall by the Las Vegas Raiders—the earliest that a back has been selected since Saquon Barkley in 2018.
Everyone expects Jeanty to be a star both in fantasy and the NFL, but which Day 2 running back has the best chance to join him in starting lineups this year? Is there a back whose landing spot gives you pause about their fantasy prospects?
Harris: Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson topped 1,000 yards during the Buckeyes' championship run. Judkins went with the 36th overall pick to the Cleveland Browns. Henderson landed two spots later, going to the Patriots.
With Nick Chubb still a free agent, the Browns had a need. They've now filled it. While Jerome Ford is still on the roster and the team added another promising rookie, fourth-round pick Dylan Sampson, Judkins profiles as a lead back. He should dominate the early-down carries for a Browns offense that will look to establish a strong rushing attack as they try to sort out their suddenly convoluted future at quarterback.
I'm sad that Henderson won't get a similar immediate path to a featured role in New England. He had two 1,000-yard seasons and another 900-yard season in college. I'm not saying Rhamondre Stevenson is an insurmountable obstacle, but I'm greedy. I would have preferred zero obstacles.
Davenport: This Browns fan was very happy when the Browns took Judkins, although that happiness lasted all of about a round, because Cleveland. He has a three-down skill-set, and at the risk of committing heresy, there's a little Nick Chubb to his game. He's my rookie RB2 behind Jeanty this year, and an argument can be made for ranking him ahead of Omarion Hampton in dynasty, too.
Fantasy managers should also be delighted by Iowa's Kaleb Johnson landing with the Pittsburgh Steelers in Round 3. The Steelers had an obvious need in the backfield after Najee Harris' departure, and while Johnson is a similarly punishing runner as Harris, he's more explosive and is familiar with the zone-running scheme Pittsburgh offensive coordinator Arthur Smith prefers. Harris was at least a fantasy RB2 all four years in Pittsburgh, with two top-15 finishes in fantasy points. Johnson should be able to at least match that production—and could exceed it.
Harris already mentioned that the Browns also added Tennessee's Dylan Sampson on Day 3 of the draft. Sampson was the SEC Offensive Player of the Year in 2024 and tied a Volunteers record with 22 rushing scores. He has evoked comparisons to Brian Westbrook. But given the respective draft capital spent on first Judkins and then Sampson and Judkins' workhorse skill-set, Sampson faces an uphill battle to be more than just a change-of-pace back on what could be a struggling offense. If you drafted him in dynasty formats before the NFL draft, condolences.
