Against The Spread Pool: Week 13

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Dave Larkin’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so once again this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two - the Footballguys staff "Against the Spread Pool Challenge". Multiple staff members (19) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.

Please note, that this contest should NOT be viewed as direct sports wagering advice, especially later in the season. Since the staff is trying to beat one another, picks may be made to go against the grain in an attempt to try and catch up in the standings. This example of game theory is more in tune towards playing a contest such as this - so again, do not use these picks as direct advice towards which games to pick each and every week. Rather, use these picks to see the top choices each week, especially by the staff members towards the top of the standings.

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

Here are the results from last week:

Vegas Winners - Over 52.4% Hit Rate
Over 50% Hit Rate

Week 12 was a tough week for the staff, as there were several upsets and closer than expected wins by favorites. Only Danny Tuccitto was able to pick 10 games correctly this week, while five staffers were one pick behind. Detroit's loss in Washington cost the staff quite a bit, as 16 of 19 staffers were on the side of a Lions' road victory that did not come in Washington last Sunday. An upset win by Tampa Bay in Atlanta also gave the group 14 losses, while Green Bay's big loss to San Francisco added 13 more. Only Seattle's road win and Baltimore's pummeling of the Rams counteracted those big losses for the staff as the Seahawks and Ravens added 15 games each to the win column. Favorite wins and covers by Buffalo (13) and Tennessee (11) along with a road cover by the Giants (13) helped ease the pain of the group landing on the wrong side of 9 out of 14 Week 12 contests. The rough week gave the staff a total record of 127-139 for Week 12 (47.4%), reducing the season-long record to 1,686-1,658. The group is 32 games above 50% (50.4% for the year), and now all the bye weeks are done. With five weeks left and 80 total games to go, the race is on for the top spot. Andy Hicks continues to lead the group with 105 correct picks on the season, well ahead of both Alex Miglio (98) and Phil Alexander (97). Can the staff get back on track in Week 13? Let's take a look at this week's picks.

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week:

Vegas Winners - Over 52.4% Hit Rate
Over 50% Hit Rate

CONSENSUS WINNERS

Once again there are an interesting mix of picks from the staff here in Week 13. There is no clear team that is a consensus pick for Thanksgiving Week, but Green Bay (16 of 19 picks) comes closest as the staff is expecting the Packers to rebound from a tough loss in San Francisco. Green Bay is a road favorite as they visit the New York Giants, a team that the Packers should beat easily in what should be a "get right game" for a likely playoff team that has hopes for a bye in a very competitive NFC this year. Two more road teams received 15 votes, and both are in action on Thanksgiving Thursday. The Chicago Bears travel to Detroit to face a decimated Lions team, who could be forced to go even deeper at quarterback if Jeff Driskel (hamstring) cannot play.and start third-string David Blough. Yes, that Chicago pick looks pretty safe. As for the other Thursday pick, most of the staff went with the underdog Bills (15) as they visit Dallas. The Cowboys have struggled this year against winning teams and have a poor recent history (1-7) of covering the spread on Thanksgiving. Three teams received 14 votes - Kansas City at home in a revenge matchup with the divsion rival Raiders, Arizona as a home underdog to the Los Angeles Rams and New England as a slight road favorite in Houston. Two more favorites received 13 votes - Carolina as a home favorite against Washington, and the road Jets in Cincinnati. The Los Angeles Chargers come off their bye as a road favorite in Denver with 12 of the staff picking the road team for a decisive win against the Broncos. Seven games were rather close calls in a tough week, with four teams (New Orleans, Jacksonville, Cleveland and Minnesota) receiving 11 votes while three more (Baltimore, Miami and Tennessee) received just over half with 10 picks. Overall the staff went with only five underdogs (Buffalo, Arizona, Minnesota, Miami and Tennessee) and just six home teams (Arizona, Kansas City, Carolina, Jacksonville, Baltimore and Miami). Plenty of variety this week, so the results will be fun to review after Monday.

ODDS AND ENDS

The NFL season is now well past the midway point of the schedule, and this set of picks is due early this week due to Thanksgiving, so picks have been completed by first thing Wednesday morning. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.

A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the profitable zone (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder than it might seem.

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

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