Against The Spread Pool: Week 15

Photo: Troy Taormina, USA Today Sports

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Dave Larkin’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so once again this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two - the Footballguys staff "Against the Spread Pool Challenge". Multiple staff members (19) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.

Please note, that this contest should NOT be viewed as direct sports wagering advice, especially later in the season. Since the staff is trying to beat one another, picks may be made to go against the grain in an attempt to try and catch up in the standings. This example of game theory is more in tune towards playing a contest such as this - so again, do not use these picks as direct advice towards which games to pick each and every week. Rather, use these picks to see the top choices each week, especially by the staff members towards the top of the standings.

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

Here are the results from last week:

Vegas Winners - Over 52.4% Hit Rate
Over 50% Hit Rate

Week 14 was outstanding for the staff, led by an amazing 14 wins for Matt Bitonti. Getting 14 of 16 games right would win most any office pool, but it barely edged out our crack staff as Danny Tuccitto made 13 correct picks, just one behind Matt. Nearly half of the group (9 of 19) had 10 or more correct picks, which more than made up for a few staffers going against the grain to try and make up ground and possibly win the week with a ton of upset selections. The group had a very strong week, going 175-129 for Week 14 (57.6% win rate), boosting the staff record for the season to 76 games above 50% (2,014-1,938; 51.0%). After such a strong performance, 12 of 19 staffers are sitting ar 50% or better on the season (at least 104 wins), and now seven Footballguys' writers are beating Las Vegas with over 53% win rates and at least 109 wins on the season. Andy Hicks continues to lead the group with 124 correct picks through 14 weeks, well ahead of Alex Miglio (116) and Phil Alexander (115). It is a tall order to make up that many picks with only three weeks left in the regular season, but the staff will definitely be trying to keep up their winning ways after such a strong week. Let's see which ways the group is leaning for this weekend with a look at this week's picks.

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week:

Vegas Winners - Over 52.4% Hit Rate
Over 50% Hit Rate

CONSENSUS WINNERS

Week 15 looks to be a week without much consensus or agreement amongst the staff, except a few general thoughts on taking favorites and road teams this week. The top pick (16 of 19 selections) goes to Cleveland, which fits both categories as a road favorite as the Browns go to Arizona to try and keep their slim playoff hopes alive. Three teams received 14 votes - Denver (at Kansas City) and Miami (at the New York Giants) as underdogs on the road, while the third team chosen 14 times was New England as a road favorite in Cincinnati. Three more teams were one vote behind with 13 of the 19 staff members in the group going with two home favorites (Green Bay hosting the Bears and New Orleans facing off with the Colts on Monday), along with road underdog Buffalo as the Bills head to Pittsburgh for a huge matchup on Sunday Night Football. Minnesota (12) was popular as another road favorite as the Vikings head to Los Angeles to face the Chargers. The only other games that are not nearly an even split (10-9) are the Jets (big underdogs in Baltimore Thursday) and Tennessee (home favorite against Houston), as both teams received 11 picks from the staff. Six games are 10-9 splits - Philadelphia (10) at Washington, Detroit (10) as a home underdog against Tampa Bay, Seattle (10) at Carolina, Oakland (10) vs. Jacksonville, the Rams (10) in Dallas and San Francisco (10) hosting Atlanta. Overall the group went with 11 favorites and 11 road teams out of the 16 contests this week. With such a variety with the Week 15 picks, it looks likely that the group will average out and have another near-50% week after Monday, but be sure to check back next week for the full results.

ODDS AND ENDS

The calendar now reads December, and the NFL season is now in the final weeks. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.

A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the profitable zone (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder than it might seem.

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

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