Against The Spread Pool: Week 16

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Dave Larkin’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so once again this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two - the Footballguys staff "Against the Spread Pool Challenge". Multiple staff members (19) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.

Please note, that this contest should NOT be viewed as direct sports wagering advice, especially later in the season. Since the staff is trying to beat one another, picks may be made to go against the grain in an attempt to try and catch up in the standings. This example of game theory is more in tune towards playing a contest such as this - so again, do not use these picks as direct advice towards which games to pick each and every week. Rather, use these picks to see the top choices each week, especially by the staff members towards the top of the standings.

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

Here are the results from last week:

Vegas Winners - Over 52.4% Hit Rate
Over 50% Hit Rate

Week 15 was a tight race for the weekly winner, as both Phil Alexander and Andrew Garda nailed 11 of their 16 picks. Phil won on the tiebreaker (Monday Night Football total points) by picking 33 points, which was only eight points from the actual of 41 points - one better than Andrew's guess of 50 points. Yes, it was that close. The biggest story for the group though was the end of Andy Hicks' strong run of impressive performances, as Andy struggled on the week with just four correct calls in Week 15. That opened the door for several staffers to close in on Andy for the overall lead, which Mr. Hicks still has with 128 correct choices this season, a 57.1% win rate that would be the envy of any Las Vegas sharp bettor. Phil Alexander (126), Alex Miglio (123) and Justin Howe (120) are all now well within striking distance for the overall lead, which should make the final two weeks of the season and this pool very exciting to track. As for the group overall, Week 15 was lackluster with nearly an exact 50% result on the week for everyone as a whole (151-153, 49.7%), which slightly lowered the overall staff record for the season to 74 games above 50% (2,165-2,091; 50.9%). Two weeks and 32 games remain, so let's see which ways the group is leaning for this weekend with a look at this week's picks.

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week:

Vegas Winners - Over 52.4% Hit Rate
Over 50% Hit Rate

CONSENSUS WINNERS

Week 16 is here already, and still the staff cannot agree on a single team across the board when it comes to picks against the spread. This week's trends are favorites (10 of 16 picks) and road teams (also 10 of 16). Three teams received at least 70% of the votes, led by underdog Buffalo (at New England) and road favorite Kansas City (at Chicago), as both teams landed 15 of 19 picks from the Footballguys staff. A close third goes to Denver as a home favorite over Detroit, and the Broncos received 14 votes. Three teams landed 13 selections - home favorites San Francisco (against the Rams) and Miami (hosting Cincinnati), along with road favorite Pittsburgh (at the Jets). Two teams garnered 12 votes, both road teams with the Saints favored to win in Tennessee, while Green Bay is an underdog on Monday in Minnesota. Four teams secured 11 of 19 votes - Carolina (at Indianapolis), Jacksonville (at Atlanta) and Philadelphia (home against Dallas) are all underdoge, along with home favorite Seattle (hosting Arizona). Finally, four games are nearly an even split (10-9) with road underdog Oakland (at the Chargers) joining three favorites - Houston (at Tampa Bay), Washington (hosting the Giants) and Baltimore (at Cleveland). If Buffalo can stay with New England and if both Kansas City and Denver win and cover, it should be a strong week overall for the group, but be sure to check back next week for the full results.

ODDS AND ENDS

The calendar now reads December, and the NFL season is now in the final weeks. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.

A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the profitable zone (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder than it might seem.

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

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