Against The Spread Pool: Week 17

Photo: Kirby Lee, USA Today Sports

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Dave Larkin’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so once again this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two - the Footballguys staff "Against the Spread Pool Challenge". Multiple staff members (19) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.

Please note, that this contest should NOT be viewed as direct sports wagering advice, especially later in the season. Since the staff is trying to beat one another, picks may be made to go against the grain in an attempt to try and catch up in the standings. This example of game theory is more in tune towards playing a contest such as this - so again, do not use these picks as direct advice towards which games to pick each and every week. Rather, use these picks to see the top choices each week, especially by the staff members towards the top of the standings.

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

Here are the results from last week:

Vegas Winners - Over 52.4% Hit Rate
Over 50% Hit Rate

Week 16 was a solid overall performance for the staff, led by 12 big wins for Jeff Haseley on the week. More than half of the group (11 of 19) had eight or more correct picks, which more than made up for only four correct picks of New England to cover against Buffalo on Saturday. The group had a very respectable week, going 156-148 for Week 16 (51.3% win rate), boosting the staff record for the season to 82 games above 50% (2,321-2,239; 50.9%). After another solid performance, 12 of 19 staffers are sitting ar 50% or better on the season (at least 120 wins), and now seven Footballguys' writers are beating Las Vegas with over 53% win rates and at least 126 wins on the season. Andy Hicks continues to lead the group with 137 correct picks through 14 weeks, well ahead of Phil Alexander (132) and Alex Miglio (130). It is a tall order to make up that many picks with only one week left in the regular season, but the staff will definitely be trying to keep up their winning ways after such a strong season. Let's see which ways the group is leaning for this weekend with a look at this week's picks.

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week:

Vegas Winners - Over 52.4% Hit Rate
Over 50% Hit Rate

CONSENSUS WINNERS

It’s the final week of the season and NFL teams tend to fall into four categories. 1) Playoff Position locked – resting their starters 2) Playoff Position can improve or can make the playoffs with a win 3) Not in Playoffs but still playing to win and 4) Not in Playoffs and looking to next season. With those thoughts in mind, Vegas (and the FBG staff) factor in those considerations when making their picks this week. Buffalo and Minnesota both had 15 staffers select them this week – both face a weaker division opponent and could see their playoff standing change with a win or loss. Neither Cleveland nor Tampa are in the playoffs, but 14 staffers picked them to play hard enough to win / cover against their division rivals. The Dolphins are a huge underdog against the Patriots, but since the Ravens have clinched HFA, 14 staffers expect the Dolphins to cover.

Five teams were picked by 11 staffers – the Saints and Chiefs (still playing for HFA against teams looking to next season), Philadelphia and Oakland (both need a win to make or stay in the playoffs) and the 49ers who are on the road against Seattle but are playing for the division and Seattle is coming off a tough loss.

Six team tip the 10-9 split slightly in their favor – Detroit over Green Bay, The Rams over the Cardinals, Baltimore over Pittsburgh, Dallas over Washington, Houston over Tennessee and Indianapolis over Jacksonville.

ODDS AND ENDS

The calendar now reads December, and the NFL season is now in the final week. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.

A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the profitable zone (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder than it might seem.

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

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