Eliminator Pool: Week 10

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Dave Larkin’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so once again this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two - the Footballguys' staff "Against the Spread Pool Challenge". Multiple staff members (19) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.

Please note, that this contest should NOT be viewed as direct sports wagering advice, especially later in the season. Since the staff is trying to beat one another, picks may be made to go against the grain in an attempt to try and catch up in the standings. This example of game theory is more in tune towards playing a contest such as this - so again, do not use these picks as direct advice towards which games to pick each and every week. Rather, use these picks to see the top choices each week, especially by the staff members towards the top of the standings.

Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest with two preseason articles. The first one that describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:

Survivor Pool Strategy

The second article is rather interesting, which describes Jeff’s preseason plan to get all the way through 17 weeks. Will it work? We are about to find out.

I Will Survive

This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

All good things must come to an end, and the staff broke their collective streak of perfect weeks in Week 9. The group suffered four losses across the board, as the surprising loss by the Packers cost both Mark Wimer and Matt Bitonti, while Devin Knotts and Will Grant took a loss with their Cleveland and Indianapolis picks, respectively. Four staffers still sit atop the standings with a perfect 9-0 record so far: Justin Howe, Dave Larkin, Jeff Haseley, and Sean Settle, but there are five staff members with just one loss and there remains a ton of weeks to navigate. Week 10 looks tough with six teams on their bye week, the largest group of the season, and there are only four teams that are favored by six points or more this week (Baltimore, New Orleans, Indianapolis, and San Francisco). Which is the right choice? I will certainly share my own thoughts in the commentary as to how to navigate Week 10, but let's start the analysis by looking at the staff's Week 10 picks.

THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY

Here are the picks for this week:

DISCUSSION

After two perfect weeks for the staff, Week 10 looks like a very difficult one - when it comes to picking one of the top choices. Only four teams are favored by six points or more this week, and Baltimore (17 - everyone) and San Francisco (12 of 17) have nearly been used by the entire staff for this contest. That leaves New Orleans (only used twice) and Indianapolis (once) as the top contenders for Week 10 selections. Looking ahead for both teams' schedules, the Saints will be big favorites in every one of their remaining games except for Week 14 (vs. San Francisco at home), so saving New Orleans for later is the best plan. The Colts have a much tougher schedule and will only be slight favorites four more times the rest of the year, and do not project to ever be expected to win by more than a touchdown for the rest of the regular season. Look for Indianapolis to have the most selections this week.

Thursday Morning Update: The picks are all in, and to no surprise, both the Saints (8 of 17 picks) and Colts (4 of 17) are the top two selections by the staff for Week 10. Both teams are at home and are big favorites against weaker competition (Atlanta at New Orleans, Miami at Indianapolis). Two staff members, Andy Hicks and Will Grant, decided to go against the grain and selected Gren Bay at home against Carolina, which could pay off big if either the Colts or Saints (or both) suffer a surprising loss. Three unique picks round out Week 10, as Jason Wood took Kansas City on the road in Tennessee, while Matt Bitonti took the Giants to beat the Jets and lastly Devin Knotts selected Tampa Bay to win at home against Arizona. Matt's pick of the Giants is interesting as technically the Giants are the visiting team, but sharing the stadium with the Jets could yield an intriguing crowd mix. With six different picks this week, the odds are once again unlikely for the staff to have a perfect result.

Please note a few things: We will be doing these picks every week, win or lose, to keep it entertaining all season long. Normally a Survivor/Eliminator pool would end once all but one player lost once, but to provide our subscribers with more perspectives, everyone will pick every week even if they lose. That said, we will still try and honor the spirit of an Eliminator / Survivor Pool, trying to win every week and not re-use any teams during the year.

COMMENTARY

Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article.

Jeff Pasquino: Two weeks ago I did a deeper dive with the analysis and also shared my near-term plan for the next four weeks:

Near-term plan = Pittsburgh (vs. Miami), San Francisco (at Arizona), Indianapolis (vs. Miami) and Minnesota (vs. Denver) in Weeks 8-11.

The near-term plan played out well so far with the Steelers in Week 8 and San Francisco in Week 9, but now comes a very challenging week. As I mentioned earlier, there are four teams favored by six or more in Week 10 - Baltimore (-9.5 at Cincinnati), New Orleans (-13 at home vs. Atlanta), Indianapolis (-10.5 at home against Miami) and San Francisco (-6 or -6.5 at home against Seattle on Monday). The Ravens and the 49ers are very likely to have been chosen quite often in most Survivor pools, so look for the Saints and Colts to lead the way for Week 10 selections.

Now comes the tricky part - which one to choose? Indianapolis will not have a better spot for the rest of the year, but the Saints are so tempting to take as a big (-13) favorite at home against the Falcons, and it is tough to trust the Colts after their tough loss on the road in Pittsburgh. Jacoby Brissett is about 50/50 to play as of Wednesday, but Miami has lost both WR Preston Williams (knee, done for the year) and RB Mark Walton (four-game suspension). Neither Williams or Walton are household names, but they are two of the best players for the Dolphins. Even if Brian Hoyer starts at quarterback, the Colts simply have to win this one at home against Miami with seven tougher matchups to follow.

From a strategic standpoint, planning the rest of the year depends on how many teams remain in your Survivor Pool. There are eight weeks of picks left for the regular season, and even if you assume that 40% of the people in your pool lose each week for the rest of the year on average (which is a high rate), roughly 4% or 5% of the teams in your pool will still be alive after Week 15. Weeks 16 and 17 are quite tricky to navigate for many reasons, including the fact that 15 teams are no longer available to pick. If your pool has 20 to 30 teams or more still alive, Week 16 is going to likely matter for you, so saving New Orleans for a home game with the Colts in a game that will have playoff implications for New Orleans is a smart move. My recommendation would be to go with the Colts, and if you have more than one entry in your pool still alive (nice job if you do), I would go with 50-75% Indianapolis and 25-50% Saints picks. That translates to picking in this manner if you have up to five entries left: Colts, Saints, Colts, Colts, Saints (and repeat Colt-Colts-Saints thereafter if you have >5 entries left).

The Pick: Indianapolis Colts (but read above as to why!)

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

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