The New Reality No.187: Key Profiles and Questions

Photo: Kim Klement, USA Today Sports

This week's installment will examine key profiles, situations, and questions through the dynasty sphere.

SAM EHLINGER PROFILE

With Matt Ryan sustaining a shoulder injury (plus not playing well), the Colts turn to Sam Ehlinger under center. Yet to throw a pass in the regular season, Ehlinger has two preseasons of action as a reason for (grain of salt) optimism plus his NFL Draft profile for examination. Ehlinger completed 68% of his passes in the preseason and at a 9.3 yards-per-attempt clip in 2021 and was even better at 83% and 10.0 yards-per-attempt in 2022. While pointing to the preseason as a critical marker for success or failure is a fool's errand, playing well is a positive whether in college, the preseason, or the NFL regular season versus playing poorly. Back to Ehlinger, the NFL Draft prospect, the Texas product was well-seasoned in college, playing 45 games and checking some of the key production boxes to be on the potential NFL success track. Ehlinger's 3.4 TD-INT ratio warrants Round 1 pedigree historically, and his 3.5 yards-per-carry (which includes lost sack yardage in college) points to moderate (or higher) rushing upside. Comparing profiles and filtering for Day 3 quarterbacks (Ehlinger was drafted in Round 6) returns the following prospects:

• Brock Purdy
• Chad Kelly
• Brett Hundley
• Dan LeFevour
• Bruce Gradkowski

This is hardly a who's who of productive future starters as Bruce Gradkowski is the best result of the quintet, seeing 20 NFL starts, throwing 709 career passes with 21 touchdowns and 24 interceptions.

IS TOM BRADY DONE?

With Tampa Bay's latest loss, a three-point offensive effort against Carolina, Brady's career is in question yet again. To highlight a few key metrics I track for quarterback play, Brady is not eroding. The first is TD-INT Rate Ratio. This looks at their TD rate (per completion) against their INT rate (per incompletion). The NFL average for starters is 1.13, dating back more than a decade, and dropping below 1.00 is a sign of job insecurity. Of current (active) starters, Brady is third in career TD-INT Rate Ratio at a balmy 1.85. Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes are first and second, respectively. Switch to 2022 only, and Brady sits at 3.96, by far the best mark in the NFL. His 1.0% INT rate is the lowest of his career with 1.4% back in his 39-year-old season (28 touchdowns, two interceptions) being his other year below 2.0%. His 4.0% TD rate is also the lowest of his career, but the key is the ratio. For example, Aaron Rodgers has six(!) seasons with a Rate Ratio of at least 3.00. Tom Brady is the only other quarterback in my database with more than one such season (2010, 2016) and now on pace (easily) for a third.