This is a weekly article that looks at real trades in real dynasty leagues for lessons about the Dynasty marketplace and Dynasty team building. The trades included are from Superflex leagues, with any relevant format changes noted with the trade.
A.J. Brown, 1.02, and Elijah Moore for Kenneth Walker, Chris Olave, and 1.11 (1QB/PPR format)
This is a fascinating trade that you can break up into pieces in a couple of ways.
First, you can evaluate the deal by comparing the players from highest to lowest dynasty value on each side of the deal. A.J. Brown and Kenneth Walker are the two most valuable assets in the trade, and Brown is probably the best player in the deal. Generally speaking, at a similar cost in ADP, any time you select a wide receiver over a running back, you are drafting a lower ceiling and lower floor of difference-making fantasy production. It is best to select the wide receivers over the running backs when they are expensive because that is where the difference is the smallest. That allows you to take running backs over wide receivers later in the draft and on your roster when the advantage is bigger. Brown and Walker are close in the startup draft position. But there is a small edge for Brown, and he is historically the best roster construction bet.
The next tier of assets is Chris Olave and the 1.02. At the 1.02 in a start-1QB format, you are likely to draft the best wide receiver in the class or the second-best running back, which current mock drafts are projecting in the second round of the NFL draft. The overall hit rate on first-round wide receivers and running backs share a similar hit rate of about 55%. As a rookie, Olave managed a top-24 seasonal finish with extraordinary metrics. Historically, 65% of first-round wide receivers who produce a top-24 seasonal finish do so again. Olave’s accomplishment of the top 24 finish as a rookie should create more optimism than the average first-round wide receiver odds. Additionally, Olave’s metrics are extraordinary. Of rookie wide receivers since 2008, only five have run 200 routes and produced more than 2.4 yards per route run: Odell Beckham Jr, Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, and Olave.
Olave would clearly be the best wide receiver in the 2023 draft, given what is known about his career to date, and is clearly better than the 1.02 in the rookie draft.
That leaves the 1.11 versus Elijah Moore - basically a free first-round pick. This view makes the Walker/Olave side a very attractive option.
Overall, the market sided with the Olave side of the deal by a solid margin.
The other way to view the trade is positionally. Brown is ahead of Olave, but Olave shares a similar elite early career trajectory. At present, the known of Walker is better than the unknown of 1.02. The risk in this aspect of the trade is a non-Bijan Robinson running back being selected in the first round of the NFL Draft, but that is the only way the pick would pull even with Walker. Again, the 1.11 is far superior to Moore. If you are willing to take a small step down in a flat range of the wide receiver position, this can be a solid win for the Walker/Olave side.
Rhamondre Stevenson for Jerry Jeudy
Rhamondre Stevenson broke out in 2022 with an RB8 finish in season-long scoring. He caught 69 passes, the fourth most in the league while running for 1040 yards. Stevenson has the blend of a profile that has elite upside because of his ability to score as a runner and receiver. There is skepticism about Stevenson because the Patriots have a history of using a committee approach in their backfield. Similarly, Stevenson’s draft pedigree is a concern as he enters year four of his career. Historically, 37% of running backs drafted in the fourth round of the NFL Draft entering the fourth year of their career have a running back selected with a superior draft pedigree.
Stevenson has a big blend of risk and reward in his profile, so exploring the trade market makes sense. However, the trade for Jeudy is a move away from the ceiling to a significantly more replaceable player. Jeudy’s career-best finish is WR22 in season-long scoring, and his career-high in targets is 113. If you are in the market to move a player like Stevenson, add to him and trade for a more elite piece instead of trading laterally or down for a lower upside option.
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