Is This Real? Week 17

Is This Real? is a weekly article focused on whether player performance is real and sustainable or should be expected to change going forward.  Through the use of stats and analytics, the article will help decipher difficult situations around the league.

Tennessee Backfield split

Coming into the season, there were big questions about whether Tyjae Spears or Tony Pollard would lead the Tennessee backfield.  Pollard has come out ahead during the regular season, averaging 19.4 touches per game with 13.8 PPG.   Meanwhile, Spears averaged 9.3 touches per game and 5.7 points per game.  Some of this is related to circumstances.  Spears missed four games with injuries, which gave Pollard a chance to consolidate his role in the offense. 

However, over the past two weeks, the situation has flipped. Tyjae Spears has averaged 24.4 points per game and is the RB5 in weekly scoring.  Spears has scored two touchdowns in each of the past two games, while averaging 11.5 touches per game.  On the other hand, Tony Pollard is 40th in points per game, averaging only 8.2.  The curious difference has been that Pollard's scoring has dropped while still maintaining the edge in per game scoring. 

Is the change indicative of something more? 

Notably, Tyjae Spears has virtually all of his fantasy points in the past two weeks when Tennessee has been down by two scores.  Spears has essentially racked up garbage time production while the team has held Pollard, who has not been practicing but is still playing, out in low-leverage situations. 

Verdict: This week Tennessee plays Jacksonville in a game that figures not to get away from Tennessee.  The game script should be substantially more suitable against a gettable Jacksonville defense for Pollard.  Pollard should be in flex consideration while Spears will be tough to trust in lineups.