Is This Real? Week 12

Is This Real? is a weekly article focused on whether player performance is real and sustainable or should be expected to change going forward.  Through the use of stats and analytics, the article will help decipher difficult situations around the league.

Is Jaxon Smith-Njigba's production sustainable?

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has improved in his second season in the league. After averaging only 8.8 points per game in 2023, he has jumped to 14.8 points per game in 2024, ranking him 17th in per-game scoring (14.8). 

Smith-Njigba has taken a notable step forward in recent weeks.  Smith-Njigba ranks third in points per game (23.9) and has 119.7 yards per game over the past four weeks (3 games).  The jump in production came when DK Metcalf was out of the lineup for weeks 8 and 9, when Smith-Njiba stepped up with 124.5 receiving yards per game.

Smith-Njigba's production is good, but he is a major beneficiary of volume.  On the season, among wide receivers, Smith-Njigba ranks fourth with 395 routes.  However, his per route production significantly lags behind his volume.  His yards per route run is 1.72, which ranks 55th among 192 qualifiers.  Additionally, Smith-Njigba has been targeted on 21.3% of his routes, which ranks 43rd, while his yards per target of 8.1 ranks 83rd.

The profile is similar to Garrett Wilson who has 1.73 yards per route run on 418 routes, the third most routes at the position.  Wilson has been targeted on 25.4% of his routes, the 18th highest rate at the position, while producing only 6.8 yards per target, which ranks 119th.

The production for both receivers is strong, but it leaves both highly vulnerable to stylistic changes or game script variations which cause a drop in passing volume.   There is little room for either to grow in their role as Wilson ranks 1st in route participation (99%) and Smith-Njigba ranks 10th (93%). 

Seattle specifically is a curious case as the team ranks tied for second in dropback rate over expectation (5%) which is based on a score and game situation of each snap.   If this maintains, Smith-Njigba has WR2 ranges of outcomes, based on mid-level efficiency and high volume.  However, if the offense stylistically changes, Smith-Njigba has a downside closer to the WR4 range. 

Verdict: Overall, Seattle has created a favorable passing environment for Smith-Njigba to produce, but his per-route production leaves questions about his ability to sustain this high-level production long-term.  This is particularly important for dynasty leagues, as Smith-Njigba qualifies as a good receiver in a great system a profile that tends to be overrated in the offseason.