Throughout the offseason, we will look at trades that explain the week.
This week, the column includes one big trade demonstrating an arbitrage strategy.
CeeDee Lamb for Diontae Johnson, Christian Watson, 2023 2nd
As an initial threshold, you must ask what you are trying to accomplish with a deal. That is one of the best questions to ask with any dynasty decision and defines this trade.
- If you are seeking a high-priced young wide receiver, Lamb is the option.
- If you are seeking to cash in on a high-priced young wide receiver for nearly the same production and upside, the package side is a compelling arbitrage trade.
The theory of this deal begins with the assumption Lamb is still the best player in the trade, but Johnson can close to pace him in scoring in the near term.
The case from this is their 2022 production.
In 2022, Lamb finished as WR6 in overall scoring, with 17.7PPG, which was good for WR8 in PPG. His 156 total targets and 9.2 targets per game both ranked fifth in the league. Lamb had 107 receptions, 1359 receiving yards, and nine touchdowns on the season.
By contrast, Johnson was a big downgrade. Overall, he finished 32nd in overall scoring, with 10.4 PPG, which was good for WR48 in PPG. Overall, the 7.3 PPG difference in 2022 is about one expected win difference for your fantasy team advantage for Lamb. Johnson’s 147 targets and 8.6 targets per game both ranked one spot below Lamb, at sixth in the league.
The difference in scoring is attributable to three factors. First, Lamb had 21 more receptions. Second, Lamb had nearly 500 more receiving yards than Johnson. Third, Lamb had nine touchdowns to zero for Johnson.
The receptions are a major issue, but this is not clearly attributable to different profiles. For example, Johnson only had seven drops, while Lamb had six. They also profiled similarly in aDOT, with Johnson’s 10.2 slightly ahead of Lamb’s 10.1. The biggest difference is Lamb had 3.1 yards of separation per target, compared to 2.8 yards of separation per target for Johnson.
Lamb’s starting quarterback, Dak Prescott, had an expected completion percentage of 65% and finished with a 66.2% completion percentage, 1.2% better than his expectation. Kenny Pickett had a slightly lower expected completion percentage of 63.5% and completed 63% of his passes, -0.5% below his expectation. Prescott had 394 attempts, only five more than Pickett’s 389. Prescott only completed 16 more passes than Pickett on the season.
Overall, small edges for Lamb added up to a much better 2022 season.
This was exacerbated by their red zone workload. Lamb (32) and Johnson (30) each had a similar red zone target workload. However, Lamb converted nine of his targets into touchdowns, while Johnson scored zero touchdowns on his targets.
The extent of Johnson’s bad touchdown performance is eye-popping. Of the 40 receivers with 20 or more red zone targets, Johnson is the only one without a touchdown reception. In fact, 37 of the 40 wide receivers had at least three receiving touchdowns.
Lamb is the better statistical profile and is the better player. However, Johnson is a big regression candidate and could pace within a couple of points with Lamb this season.
In addition to Johnson, Christian Watson is a major piece in the transaction, who had 2.26 yards per route run as a rookie, a top-three-percentile performance. Watson is depressed in price because he is attached to Aaron Rodgers, whose 2023 status is unclear. However, Watson’s performance has the makings of a potential star. There is a non-zero chance Watson is the leading scorer in this deal for the next two seasons.
Their volume-based scoring in their career is also interesting:
- Lamb – 0.41 points per route run
- Johnson – 0.38 points per route run
- Watson – 0.38 points per route run
Overall, there is a clear preference in the dynasty community for the Lamb side of the trade.
Lamb is certainly the best player in the deal, but there are multiple ways to beat him on the other side of the trade. If you are trying to accomplish the highest price player in the deal, Lamb is your choice, but if you want a two-way go, the Johnson side is a compelling option.
We had an in-depth discussion of this transaction on this week’s Footballguys Dynasty Show.