Reading the Defense: Week 12

Reading the Defense is a weekly column that considers the effects of player deployment and schematic trends on individual defensive players' fantasy value. While analytics take hold in NFL front offices and sidelines, data-driven decision-making also benefits fantasy gamers.

Reading the Tea Leaves

The preseason version of this column, Reading the New Defense, offers analysis of how defensive scheme changes could affect players' statistical output and fantasy values. Recent editions of Reading the Defense have provided players rising or falling in value as the season progresses.

The work of Reading the New Defense for 2025 can begin now, as two teams have fired their coaches, and at least two more seem certain to follow. Anticipating scheme-induced changes in value provides gamers opportunities to strengthen their rosters now or over the winter. Unrestricted free agency and the NFL draft will wreak havoc on fantasy rosters next spring.

Dynasty gamers must focus roster construction on durable assets. Quality pass rushers almost always find work regardless of front-office tumult and sideline turnover. Pro Football Focus' top two graded pass rushers are T.J. Watt and Myles Garrett – two fantasy cornerstones.

Some of the league's lowest-graded linebackers played rotationally for much of their careers but are now in expanded roles. The current utility of Jahlani Tavai, Kyzir White, and E.J. Speed to fantasy gamers belies their reliability.

While a good pass rusher can often reach the quarterback regardless of scheme or team, a linebacker can be more severely influenced by situation. Two of 2023's DE1s, Danielle Hunter and Andrew Van Ginkel, changed teams this year. Each has continued to produce.

Two of last year's top three fantasy linebackers entered new situations in 2024. The immortal Bobby Wagner has hardly slowed down, but Foyesade Oluokun has been knocked clear off his perch as the perennial top linebacker in a new defensive scheme.

New York Jets Linebackers

The Jets fired fourth-year head coach Robert Saleh in Week 6. His defense has been fertile ground for fantasy linebackers during his tenure. 2024 is no exception. Quincy Williams, a member of the 2023 All-Pro team, ranks 16th on the Footballguys leaderboard. Fourth-year player Jamien Sherwood is breaking out in the wake of C.J. Mosley's injuries. Sherwood is the 9th-ranked linebacker by fantasy points despite starting and playing full-time beginning in Week 3.

Big plays fueled the All-Pro appearance and Williams' LB1 fantasy status in 2023. The Jets' defense has taken a step back this year. Williams has played more snaps than all but two NFL linebackers. His unit, failing to generate turnovers, struggles to get off the field. Similarly, Sherwood has played the 11th-most snaps among the league's linebackers.

The Jets would save only $1 million by cutting Williams next spring. He is likely to return, but his big-play production of 2023 and his 2024 playing time are less certain to rebound. He'll be 29 next season and is a risky investment as a dynasty LB1.

"QUINCY WILLIAMS LEVELING MURRAY." - Spero Dedes pic.twitter.com/7J3pxq13bd

— NFL on CBS ? (@NFLonCBS) November 10, 2024

Jamien Sherwood is playing for his second contract and turns 25 in January. He played safety at Auburn, learned behind veteran C.J. Mosley, and has acquitted himself well in his first significant opportunity. Sherwood's floor next spring is to land a $3 to $4 million deal to compete for a regular role. His ceiling is an $8 to $9 million long-term contract that sets him up to man the middle of a defense for the next decade.

32-year-old C.J. Mosley hasn't played since October 20, and there's no news of any return beyond this mistake from an eastern Connecticut newspaper. Cutting Mosley this winter would be financially painful, but the uncertainty around his status, described by the team as a neck injury (not the lower body injury alluded to in the Connecticut headline), casts doubt on any fantasy value going forward.

Here is what the Jets roster looks like next year. About $30M or so in cap room prior to restructures. Wilson, Gardner, Hall and maybe Quincy Williams and AVT should be looking for new contracts. pic.twitter.com/y0jcf1m9UG

— Jason_OTC (@Jason_OTC) November 19, 2024

Jets Edge Defenders

Only once did a Jets edge defender finish as a starting-caliber fantasy asset during Robert Saleh's tenure. Jermaine Johnson tore an Achilles tendon in his quest to repeat the feat this season.

A deep rotation contributed to this apparent futility. In 2024, no New York edge defender has played even 62 percent of the defense's snaps (Will McDonald IV). This usage pattern has held throughout Saleh's tenure.

A new defensive coordinator in 2025 could choose to feature Johnson, who emerged as a sophomore last year, and the 15th overall pick of the 2023 draft, Will McDonald IV. After a forgettable rookie season, McDonald has proven a boom/bust option for fantasy gamers and the Jets alike. Each player would be an interesting investment as a dynasty DE4.

Footballguy Matt Montgomery discusses McDonald's rest-of-season outlook, one that could suppress his trade value for the opportunistic dynasty gamer.

Will McDonald IV is a good player performing badly and we need to talk about it pic.twitter.com/HZ0mk6nLA6

— Matthew Montgomery (@mattmontyff) November 21, 2024

Veteran pass rusher Haason Reddick wore out his welcome in New York before he played a down there. With just 0.5 sacks on the season, he will surely look for a new home in 2025. Reddick took a step back in 2023 but wants to be paid like he didn't. He is quickly becoming an irrelevant IDP.

Thanks for Reading!

A week with six teams on byes may yield more coaching changes and high-profile benchings. Reading the Defense will return on Black Friday with a review of players undergoing change in New Orleans and potentially a second directionless team.

Reading the Defense drops each Friday. This column seeks to identify not only whom to target or fade but why. Analysis at Footballguys aims to equip fantasy gamers with the confidence to acquire players for their rosters and deploy them on Sundays. Readers are welcome to contact and follow this writer @DynastyTripp on the website formerly known as Twitter.