A big part of dynasty (and fantasy football as a whole) is taking a stand on whether we believe what we have seen will continue. This could be from week to week, year to year, or in dynasty, from a previous-to-future general sense. By this point in the season, taking stock of your roster and team situation is key.
Historical Odds
Like the NFL, for dynasty leagues the impact of season starts on playoff odds is a critical element of reality for questions like 'how good is this team?' and 'what are my chances this year?'. Specifically, the analysis of the first month of head-to-head results in a dynasty league.
Let's start with the quick good news and 3-0 teams. They have an 88% chance of making the playoffs in the sample. Even if they lose this week and fall to 3-1, they are still 77% playoff bets. In short, this is not a critical week for those teams in the macro view. That should be no surprise, as many good teams get off to quality starts, whether in the NFL or in a dynasty.
Next, 2-1 teams. Currently, they have a 63% chance of making the playoffs. With a win, they will elevate to 3-1 and an 77% chance, as mentioned above. The key point is that dropping to 2-2 does not produce 50% odds. Instead, the result is 52%. These are all six-team playoff structures and 12-team leagues for the record. The difference between 3-1 and 2-2 is substantial, and this is a critical early data point for 2-1 record dynasty teams.
The 1-2 teams have a ton on the line in Week 4. Their 38% odds today rise to 52% with a win and drop to 24% with a loss. While not an elimination game, a loss in Week 4 turns Week 5 into the proverbial must-win scenario with 1-4 odds at a paltry 9% of the postseason.
Finally, the 0-3 teams. This is a critical week. At 10% odds today, they rise to 24% with a win to a 1-3 record. However, it drops to 2% with a loss. At 0-4, that is a legitimate moment to question the current season and know you are a substantial historical outlier to make the playoffs. Also, a much longer bet than even 1-3 teams. Also, know that probably half of the playoff spots, if not more, are near-locks for the other teams. Another factor is that a 0-3 or 1-3 start means already having a chunk of the league where you are behind in the points or head-to-head tiebreaker for the final 10 weeks of the regular season.
Another aspect to consider is that at 0-4, there is less schedule luck (misfortune) at play compared to once or twice going up against the highest-scoring team in the league or being a hard-luck loser early on. Getting a single win in the opening month is the minimum threshold for optimism.
Diagnosis: Further Analysis
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