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As a new feature this year, I will be providing weekly value charts for both standard and PPR dynasty leagues. For more information on my methodology, read here.

2016 Pick Values

My #1 most received request— perhaps more than twice as common as all other requests combined— is "could you add draft picks to the value chart?"

I understand how valuable this would be, especially for those using these charts as trade aids. The problem, of course, is that it's a very difficult question. There are a lot of variables at play, and since I don't even watch college football, at this point in the season I don't have any idea who those picks might even wind up being. I would love to add pick values, but doing it right is a major project that will require a significant time investment; far more than I can realistically devote in the middle of the season.

My choice to this point has been to either do it poorly or to not do it at all. I have opted for the latter. But given the overwhelming volume of requests, this week I've opted for a compromise. I'm not entirely sure precisely how different time preferences would impact rookie picks, and this entire exercise is all about precision. As a result, I don't feel that comfortable providing specific values for picks in the contender or rebuilder charts.

But, playing dynasty for a long time and spending a lot of time thinking about questions like these has given me a pretty intuitive feel for what rookie picks look like under more normal preferences. So this week I've added pick values to the "balanced" charts. They're what I use myself, (even when contending), and they're how I feel most comfortable conceptualizing dynasty. So I feel pretty confident about my ability to estimate those pick values.

As I mentioned, the point of these charts is to bring a much greater degree of precision to dynasty rankings. These pick values are a step away from that precision. Think of them more as a general neighborhood than an exact value. But it's going to be a pretty small neighborhood; I'd imagine that when I tackle the project this offseason, those picks are very likely to settle within 5-10% of where I have them now.

If you want to use those values and extrapolate out to value picks in the contender or rebuilder charts, I think that's reasonable. And in the offseason I'll certainly devote a large chunk of time to coming up with a more satisfactory solution to the problem. But in the meantime, hopefully you find this helpful.

And thanks to everyone who reached out to me. Never feel like your voices aren't heard.

Standard definitions and disclaimers

EVoB stands for "Expected Value over Baseline", and represents how much value a player is expected to provide over a worst-case replacement at his position. EVoS stands for "Expected Value over Starters", and represents how much value a player is expected to provide over an average starter at his position. For more information on terms, read here.

Additional information on how these charts were formed and how they should be used can be found in the introduction here. 

Finally, if using these charts as a trade aid, please note they will consistently overestimate the trade value of some positions, most notably quarterback. An explanation of why this is the case, as well as suggestions on how to adjust these values to better represent your league, can be found in the last section of this article.

If you have any questions, comments, or concerns, please feel free to contact me any time via email at harstad@footballguys.com or via Twitter at @AdamHarstad. Thanks, and enjoy!

Standard Scoring, Balanced Approach (10% Time Discount)

Standard Scoring, Heavy Contender (30% Time Discount)

Standard Scoring, Heavy Rebuilder (-10% Time Discount)