Running Back Rankings and Tiers: One Staffer's Opinion

Almost a decade ago, NPR posted a few pictures and a simple question. And the results were pretty astonishing.

"How much does this cow weigh?"

Over 17,000 people responded. And while the provided answers were all over the place, the average weight guessed was 1,287 pounds, within five percent of Penelope's (the cow) actual weight of 1,355 pounds. This was a simple demonstration of the power of aggregated knowledge from a large sample.

The value from the wisdom of a crowd cannot be understated. Our consensus rankings combine the expertise of all our staff into an aggregated set of rankings. Those rankings are tied to our projections, allowing you to input your league's scoring and roster settings to generate a completely customizable set of rankings and projections for any fantasy football league you're playing in. It really doesn't get better than that.

However, if you're seeking an in-depth explanation of one staffer's ranking process, I'll cover that in this article. I believe that diverse viewpoints enable our subscribers to make informed decisions. And today, I'll discuss running backs. Over the next month, I'll repeat this process for each position.

Next to each player, I will highlight how much I've strayed from our Average Draft Position. Our ADP utilizes a blend from multiple sources, providing you with accurate values across the entire industry. For players who have a sizable gap from their average value, I'll give some of my thoughts and provide additional context.

Let's start with a tier that is largely agreed upon among all fantasy football analysts this year.

Elite RB1s

This tier requires little explanation. These players are all worthy of early first-round picks. And a firm conviction in any of them could warrant the use of the first overall pick. These are all elite talents on good offenses who catch passes, score touchdowns, and have little touch competition.

• RB1 - Saquon Barkley
• RB2 - Jahmyr Gibbs (+1) - Picking between Gibbs and Bijan Robinson is tricky, but we saw the upside for Gibbs when David Montgomery went down last year, making him my preference.
• RB3 - Bijan Robinson (-1) - Bijan Robinson is an amazing running back, but Jahmyr Gibbs projects similarly and with much more contingent upside.

Could Be This Year's RB1

All of these players have a modicum of risk. Has the NFL figured out the Dolphins' offense? Will Jeanty's skills translate to the NFL? Can McCaffrey shake the injury bug? Will Henry continue defying Father Time? While these questions all warrant some concern, these players have "finishing as this year's overall RB1" well within their ranges of outcomes, making them all worthy of first- or second-round picks.

• RB4 - De'Von Achane (+3) - Blistering speed in the run game and elite target-earning chops in the receiving game give Achane an extremely safe floor and a sky-high ceiling.
• RB5 - Ashton Jeanty (-1)
• RB6 - Derrick Henry (-1)
• RB7 - Christian McCaffrey (-1)

High-Volume RB1s

When healthy, these running backs are all workhorses. There are mild concerns here that keep them from the elite tier. Jacobs didn't get the same target volume he was afforded in Las Vegas. Taylor has struggled to coexist alongside Anthony Richardson Sr. Williams' inefficiencies, while obvious to analysts, don't appear to matter to Sean McVay. These guys probably won't finish as the overall RB1, but being a top-five running back is easily attainable.

• RB8 - Josh Jacobs (+2) - After a slow start to the season with his new team, Jacobs took over as the Packers' bellcow and was fantasy's RB3 after their bye.
• RB9 - Jonathan Taylor
• RB10 - Kyren Williams (+1)

Big-Play / Pass-Catching RB2s

At this point, we're past the smash picks. All of these running backs could potentially have the floor fall out from under them this year. But what they all bring to the table (big-play breakaway speed or elite pass-catching ability) gives them very high ceilings. Given their steep costs in drafts, many people may start looking at quarterbacks and tight ends instead of these running backs.

• RB11 - Breece Hall (+2)
• RB12 - Alvin Kamara (+4) - Kamara has had 75-plus targets in four of the last five seasons and is showing no signs of decline.
• RB13 - Bucky Irving (-5) - Irving is undoubtedly talented, but Rachaad White's involvement in the passing game and expected regression from the Buccaneers' offense set up for a shakier floor than many drafters realize.
• RB14 - Ken Walker III (+3) - New OC Klint Kubiak has gushed about Walker since he arrived in Seattle, and health is the only thing holding him back from a breakout season.

Projectable Volume RB2s

Projectable volume in the offseason is one of the biggest traps in fantasy football, and a typical red flag of a dead-zone running back. However, we will often see players in this range far exceed their draft position. Hubbard and Brown finished better than these rankings just last year. Swift could be the RB1 on a much-improved Bears team. And Cook's concerns are entirely unrelated to his talent and on-field play. We're in a risky range of running backs, but the upside within this tier makes the risk palatable.

• RB15 - Chuba Hubbard (+3) - Hubbard powered the Panthers' offense last year and was gifted with a sizable contract, showing how much the team values him.
• RB16 - Chase Brown (-4) - Brown had the league's highest opportunity share over the back half of last season, and added competition will likely cut into that.
• RB17 - D'Andre Swift (+9) - Swift was the per-game RB12 last time Ben Johnson had him, and now he has even less competition for touches on a should-be-improved Bears offense.
• RB18 - James Cook (-4) - Offseason contract disputes could bleed into the regular season, allowing the coaching staff to look at other running backs.

Rookies With Huge Upside and Safe Floors

This tier is filled with talented rookies who should seamlessly transition into valuable roles. Of course, rookies don't always translate to the NFL game, which is why they're somewhat suppressed in cost. But almost every year, rookies end up being late-season hammers that win fantasy leagues. And this 2025 Draft class provided one of the best batches of new running backs we've ever seen. All of these players are worth reaching ahead of ADP for.

• RB19 - TreVeyon Henderson (+3) - The pass-catching role in a Josh McDaniels' offense is very valuable, and Henderson has the big-play upside to make it even better.
• RB20 - Kaleb Johnson (+7) - Presumably being dropped into the role vacated by Najee Harris, Johnson has a second gear that could help him be even more productive.
• RB21 - Quinshon Judkins (+4) - Off-the-charts athleticism and the departure of Nick Chubb make it easy to envision Judkins walking right into that volume-rich role.

Rookies With Huge Upside and Shaky Floors

Both of the running backs in this tier are very talented as well. But they're in much more crowded offenses than the guys in the tier above. While the upside is similarly appealing, the floors could be a bit worrisome.