RB2 By Committee - PPR: Update

Jeff Pasquino's RB2 By Committee - PPR: Update Jeff Pasquino Published 08/18/2014

 A few weeks ago, I first wrote the RB2BC for PPR leagues article for this season - but as often happens, our members wanted more.  With both of the recommended running backs gaining in the ADP (I will refrain from saying I was directly responsible for this), the emails and tweets have rolled in for more advice with Joique Bell getting drafted earlier than expected.   So what else can I do but write an article?  This is my attempt to provide a better guide for you on your Draft Day.  I will not re-do the entire article here, as you can certainly go back and read the methods for finding the committee pairs in the original article.  Today I am only going to focus on what you want - the results.

So Joique Bell is now more expensive - does that change the plan?  We will get to that, but first we have to talk about the good news vs. the bad news here.  Whenever running backs go up in ADP, another one falls - and this year, there are 25-30 reasonable guys to target.  That makes RB2BC a solid plan, no matter who the backs turn out to be.  

Let's revisit where we are today, starting with the ADP of running backs 20-40:

ADPPlayerADPPlayer
RB20 Ryan Mathews RB31 Stevan Ridley
RB21 Rashad Jennings RB32 Steven Jackson
RB22 Bishop Sankey RB33 Maurice Jones-Drew
RB23 Ray Rice RB34 Danny Woodhead
RB24 Joique Bell RB35 Darren Sproles
RB25 Trent Richardson RB36 Fred Jackson
RB26 Chris Johnson RB37 Terrance West
RB27 Frank Gore RB38 Devonta Freeman
RB28 Ben Tate RB39 Bernard Pierce
RB29 Pierre Thomas RB40 Knowshon Moreno
RB30 Lamar Miller    

Table 1: Running Backs RB20-RB40 Based on PPR ADP

But wait a minute - why did I go to RB20?  The reason now is to cover you, in case the ADP get shuffled again.  Your committee will certainly be better if you can land one or two backs with ADPs of 20-24, but that is a best case scenario.  Most likely you will have to grab two backs after RB24, but if any of the backs start to shuffle in the ADP list, you will now have a handy dandy chart (coming down below) to use as a reference.

So now we have 21 guys to pair up and see how they do. That makes 210 potential committees, so there had better be a decent one (or several, we hope) out of all of those couplets. Just like before, I am going to use their weekly projected fantasy points to combine all 210 pairs to figure out which are the best ones.   Table 2 contains the results for the top pairs:

RankRunning Back 1Running Back 2ValueADP1ADP2
1 Joique Bell Lamar Miller 225.5 25 32
2 Ryan Mathews Joique Bell 225.4 20 24
3 Rashad Jennings Joique Bell 225.0 21 24
4 Ray Rice Joique Bell 222.5 23 24
5 Joique Bell Frank Gore 219.8 24 27
6 Ryan Mathews Ray Rice 218.8 20 23
7 Joique Bell Lamar Miller 217.0 24 30
8 Joique Bell Chris Johnson 214.9 24 26
9 Ray Rice Frank Gore 214.5 23 27
10 Rashad Jennings Ray Rice 214.5 21 23
11 Ray Rice Lamar Miller 214.3 23 30
12 Joique Bell Danny Woodhead 214.2 24 34
13 Ray Rice Pierre Thomas 214.1 23 29
14 Rashad Jennings Chris Johnson 213.6 21 26
15 Joique Bell Pierre Thomas 213.4 24 29
16 Joique Bell Trent Richardson 212.2 24 25
17 Ryan Mathews Rashad Jennings 212.2 20 21
18 Ray Rice Fred Jackson 211.3 23 36
19 Rashad Jennings Pierre Thomas 210.8 21 29
20 Rashad Jennings Lamar Miller 210.7 21 30
21 Joique Bell Darren Sproles 209.9 24 35
22 Joique Bell Maurice Jones-Drew 209.8 24 33
23 Rashad Jennings Bishop Sankey 209.3 21 22
24 Joique Bell Ben Tate 209.3 24 28
25 Ray Rice Ben Tate 208.7 23 28
26 Ray Rice Trent Richardson 208.1 23 25
27 Ryan Mathews Chris Johnson 208.0 20 26
28 Rashad Jennings Ben Tate 207.7 21 28
29 Ray Rice Darren Sproles 207.4 23 35
30 Ray Rice Danny Woodhead 207.2 23 34
31 Rashad Jennings Fred Jackson 206.9 21 36
32 Ray Rice Maurice Jones-Drew 206.8 23 33
33 Ray Rice Steven Jackson 205.9 23 32
34 Joique Bell Stevan Ridley 205.8 24 31
35 Ryan Mathews Pierre Thomas 205.7 20 29
36 Rashad Jennings Maurice Jones-Drew 205.5 21 33
37 Joique Bell Bernard Pierce 205.4 24 39
38 Bishop Sankey Ray Rice 205.3 22 23
39 Rashad Jennings Trent Richardson 205.1 21 25
40 Ray Rice Stevan Ridley 205.1 23 31
41 Rashad Jennings Stevan Ridley 205.0 21 31
42 Rashad Jennings Danny Woodhead 204.4 21 34
43 Joique Bell Terrance West 203.7 24 37
44 Rashad Jennings Steven Jackson 203.4 21 32
45 Joique Bell Knowshon Moreno 203.4 24 40
46 Ryan Mathews Frank Gore 203.3 20 27
47 Joique Bell Fred Jackson 203.3 24 36
48 Ryan Mathews Lamar Miller 202.8 20 30
49 Rashad Jennings Frank Gore 202.6 21 27
50 Rashad Jennings Darren Sproles 202.1 21 35
51 Bishop Sankey Joique Bell 201.7 22 24
52 Ryan Mathews Fred Jackson 201.5 20 36
53 Ray Rice Chris Johnson 201.1 23 26
54 Joique Bell Steven Jackson 200.7 24 32
55 Ryan Mathews Bishop Sankey 199.4 20 22
56 Ryan Mathews Ben Tate 199.3 20 28
57 Rashad Jennings Knowshon Moreno 199.2 21 40
58 Rashad Jennings Bernard Pierce 198.1 21 39
59 Chris Johnson Lamar Miller 197.5 26 30
60 Ryan Mathews Maurice Jones-Drew 197.5 20 33
61 Joique Bell 0 197.3 24 n/a
62 Ryan Mathews Darren Sproles 197.1 20 35
63 Ray Rice Knowshon Moreno 196.5 23 40
64 Frank Gore Pierre Thomas 196.4 27 29
65 Chris Johnson Frank Gore 195.9 26 27
66 Bishop Sankey Chris Johnson 195.7 22 26
67 Chris Johnson Danny Woodhead 194.8 26 34
68 Trent Richardson Chris Johnson 194.2 25 26
69 Frank Gore Lamar Miller 194.0 27 30
70 Chris Johnson Ben Tate 193.4 26 28
71 Ryan Mathews Bernard Pierce 193.0 20 39
72 Ryan Mathews Steven Jackson 192.9 20 32
73 Chris Johnson Pierre Thomas 192.7 26 29
74 Ray Rice Terrance West 192.0 23 37
75 Rashad Jennings 0 191.9 21 n/a
76 Pierre Thomas Danny Woodhead 191.6 29 34
77 Ben Tate Pierre Thomas 191.1 28 29
78 Bishop Sankey Pierre Thomas 191.0 22 29
79 Trent Richardson Frank Gore 191.0 25 27
80 Chris Johnson Fred Jackson 190.9 26 36
81 Chris Johnson Steven Jackson 190.4 26 32

Table 2: PPR Running Back #2 Committee Pairs

As we can see from Table 2, we have some very good pairs to select from for RB2BC. In fact, I think that this is the best year ever to attempt RB2BC. Please keep in mind that the top of the chart is going to be skewed a little high this time around as we are still using RB20-24 rather than starting with RB25.  Still, there are 79 pairs here that are good for over 190 points, plus two players on their own (Joique Bell and Rashad Jennings) that also exceed that number.  That means if you get the right two backs, you should be able to score at least 190 points from your RB2BC for this season.  But which ones?

I made something new this year, which is a RB2BC PPR Draft Matrix chart.  Now, it might be a little tricky to read, so let me explain after I show you the chart:

2nd pickFirst Pick
RB20RB21RB22RB23RB24RB25RB26RB27RB28RB29RB30
RB20 Ryan Mathews                      
RB21 Rashad Jennings 3                    
RB22 Bishop Sankey 9 6                  
RB23 Ray Rice 2 2 1                
RB24 Joique Bell 1 1 2 1              
RB25 Trent Richardson   10   7 6            
RB26 Chris Johnson 4 3 3 13 3 1          
RB27 Frank Gore 6 14   2 1 2 2        
RB28 Ben Tate 10 7   6 9 5 4 4      
RB29 Pierre Thomas 5 4 4 4 5 4 5 1 1    
RB30 Lamar Miller 7 5   3 2 3 1 2 2 2  
RB31 Stevan Ridley   11   12 10   10 8     5
RB32 Steven Jackson 14 13   11 15 7 7 9 6 3 3
RB33 Maurice Jones-Drew 11 9   10 8   9 3 3 6 8
RB34 Danny Woodhead   12   9 4   3 7 5 1 2
RB35 Darren Sproles 12 15   8 7 8 8 5 7 5 1
RB36 Fred Jackson 8 8   5 14 6 6 6 4 4 4
RB37 Terrance West       15 12   11       6
RB38 Devonta Freeman                      
RB39 Bernard Pierce 13 17     11           7
RB40 Knowshon Moreno   16   14 13   12        
                         
        190 180 175            

Table 3: PPR Running Back #2 Committee Draft Matrix

I know that there are pretty colors and all, but I completely understand if you are confused by Table 3.  Let's talk about the colors first.  Yellow squares are "unlikely pairs", as they use two backs at RB20-24, so that's counter of the RB2BC plan - but if you can them, go for it!  Second, the pairs of RB25 - RB40 backs are highlighted in blue (pairs projected to score 190 or more points), green (180 - 190) or purple (175 - 180).  

Now remember that you are targeting a running back to start your pair.  I would still go after Joique Bell (RB24) if you can get him in Round 5, but if not, the matrix is going to help you quite a bit.  First, look on the left side of Table 3 - that is the list of running backs in ADP order (RB20 - RB40).  Naturally, you are targeting a player in the RB20 to RB30 range, so after you get one of those guys, go to the top of the chart and find the column that matches this player.  The columns are numbered in the "best pair" order to give you the name of the second back you want to get.   

Let's do an example.  You get Joique Bell, RB24 in Round 5.  You want to get the best player to pair with him, so the RB24 column tells you that the best five pairs, in order, are Frank Gore, Lamar Miller, Chris Johnson, Danny Woodhead and Pierre Thomas.  Ideally you get Gore or Miller to pair with Joique Bell.  Another example is that you get sniped on Bell and you have Frank Gore as your second back.  Which backs go best with him?  Gore is RB27, and moving to that column the Top 4 targets are Pierre Thomas, Lamar Miller, Maurice Jones-Drew and Ben Tate.  Note that the color changed from blue for the first two pairs to green, which highlights that the first two are projected to give you 190 or more points, while the green pairs are projected to be just 180-190.  Clearly you want blue over green, and green over purple.

I hope this helps everyone on Draft Day.  Good luck this season.

Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.

Photos provided by Imagn Images
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