The 2013 campaign seemed like four or five seasons in one. We saw lots of change from 2012, and even more change within the season. More than any season in recent memory, top options at every position shot up and down at an alarming pace. The most agile and responsive owners were able to take advantage of the chaos, and turn instability into an edge over the competition. What did we learn along the way this year?
1. What a difference a coach makes
With the NFL trending towards offensive-minded head coaches, this is the headline and most important lesson the 2013 NFL taught us. The majority of the biggest fantasy football developments in 2013 can be traced to coaching changes:
- Chip Kelly sped things up, which turned Nick Foles into Peyton Manning and LeSean McCoy into LeSean McCoy in an offense that knows how to run the ball.
- Andy Reid unlocked the shackles Todd Haley and Romeo Crennel put on Jamaal Charles.
- Marc Trestman created a monster of a downfield passing offense in Chicago, which allowed Matt Forte to gouge the gaps left in opposing defenses.
- Norv Turner’s downfield passing game lit Josh Gordon’s fuse.
- Wunderkind offensive coordinator Adam Gase helped install an uptempo aggressive, quick passing offense that Peyton Manning drove to record numbers
- The guy Gase replaced (San Diego head coach Mike McCoy) revived the career of Philip Rivers and provided the setting for Keenan Allen to put the NFL on notice that there was a new #1 receiver residing on the west coast.
Heck, even Doug Marrone (and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett) kept Buffalo surprisingly viable in a year that saw them use three quarterbacks after starting with a rookie.
Like Wayne Gretzky said, you have to skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been. Bold offensive coaches are imagining offenses with more potential for production and more flexibility when devising the deployment of their weapons. By anticipating spikes in productivity due to better utilization and fit, you can aim your picks at where the production is going to be, not where it has been.
2014 Takeaway: Watch the hires closely and be willing to trust new coaches with good track records to make the most of their talent on offense.
2. You don’t need a stud QB win your league, but a stud QB can still win your league for you
Stud quarterbacks fell farther than ever in drafts this summer, which created a dilemma: Wait for a later quarterback who could produce in the top 5, or take the known stud at a discount and pocket the advantage at the position. Which choice ended up being right?
Well, both.
Peyton Manning was 2013’s unfair advantage player, and many rode him to a championship after taking him in the 4th or 5th round. Nick Foles, Andy Dalton, Ben Roethlisberger and other quarterbacks that cost little to nothing on draft day were also suitable choices to win guide you to a championship. Even the likes of Josh McCown and Ryan Fitzpatrick contributed to teams that hoisted the trophy this season. You can improvise all year at quarterback in a 12-team league and likely get away with it, if not end up better off than half of the teams that drafted one of the top ten quarterbacks off of the board.
2014 Takeaway: I don’t blame anyone who takes Manning in the first round next year, but I’ll probably be one of the last ones to take a quarterback in most of my drafts yet again.
3. Last year’s toast of the town is this year’s QBBC play
It was the large class of young breakout quarterbacks in 2012 that made the position seem so non-essential in 2013 drafts. None of them turned out to be the everyweek starting option that was envisioned when the season started. Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson ran hot and cold and suffered at times due to low attempt volume. Andrew Luck had a late season skid and losing Reggie Wayne was a setback for his offense. Robert Griffin III III was a complete disaster.
Sustained excellence at quarterback in the NFL is very difficult to achieve early in one’s career.
2014 Takeaway: All of these quarterbacks are talented and there’s good reason to believe (Harvin, Crabtree, Wayne full returns, Griffin health) that all will bounce back in 2014. More fuel for the wait on QB fire.
4. Good things come to those who wait
Delaying gratification ended up paying dividends in 2013. Led by Josh Gordon, a strong group of players provided bang for your buck at slashed prices due to missed games. LeVeon Bell, Shane Vereen, Michael Crabtree, and Andre Brown helped your cause, and even cautionary examples like Rob Gronkowski and Justin Blackmon were on track to be major difference makers before succumbing to the flaw (Injuries, Off-field Behavior) that knocked them down the board in the first place. Percy Harvin was the one dud in the clearance bin, but the odds clearly favored those who took a chance on drafting or stashing a player who couldn’t contribute to your fantasy team right away due to injury or suspension.
As Chase Stuart taught us, a player’s value is more in line with their total VBD than their total points. If a player has the talent/situation to provide more of a total edge over the competition in a partial season than more mediocre options do in a whole year, then err on the side of rostering them.
2014 Takeaway: I’ll be driving the draft Gronkowski bandwagon again and otherwise not get too hung up on missed games as a drag on fantasy value.
5. The third-year wide receiver theory is turning into the second-year wide receiver theory
There’s Josh Gordon again. Also, Alshon Jeffery, Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright, and TY Hilton. Second-year receivers took big leaps in ability and role, and they rewarded owners who were willing to wager mid-round picks on the continued development of players on the (sometimes steep) upslope of their careers.
2014 Takeaway: Cordarrelle Patterson, Kenny Stills, and Terrance Williams should have a prominent place on your mid-round target list at wide receiver.
6. Continue to be willing to take chances on rookie running backs
There’s LeVeon Bell again. Also, Eddie Lacy, Zac Stacy, and Giovani Bernard. They weren’t quite Alfred Morris and Doug Martin, but Bell and Lacy were every week contributors, and Stacy was basically their equal once he took over as a starter.
2014 Takeaway: Monitor our offseason draft coverage and get a Matt Waldman Rookie Scouting Portfolio to get an idea of the best of the incoming class of backs.
7. It’s never too late to play like a first-round running back
Knowshon Moreno, Ryan Mathews, and Donald Brown finally lived up to their first-round billing. All three ran with urgency and played through injuries to seize control of their backfields. Moreno and Brown are entering free agency, but if their teams are smart enough to bring them back, they should be important parts of winning fantasy football teams again in 2014.
2014 Takeaway: Be open-minded to someone like Darren McFadden redeeming himself next year if all it costs is a waiver wire pickup.
8. A good tight end is hard to find
Even sure thing Jimmy Graham was slowed by an injury as 2013 saw most teams struggle to get consistent production from their tight end position. Like quarterback, the relatively flat terrain at the position outside of the few reliable studs meant that a good one gave you an advantage, but you could also get away with cobbling together you effort at the position over the course of the season. Julius Thomas and Vernon Davis were consistent scorers, along with Greg Olsen and an encore year from Tony Gonzalez, and Rob Gronkowski was on his way, but what seemed like new depth in the form of Jordan Cameron and Jared early breakouts ended up being part of the same low-scoring kiddie pool that tight end has remained through many seasons of false hope that the position would be more productive. Antonio Gates, Jason Witten, and Heath Miller are fading, so we’ll need more new blood at tight end soon.
2014 Takeaway: Jimmy Graham will be seen as a more viable first-round pick than he was last year, but just about any approach will work at the position.
9. Streaming defenses is a good strategy, but so is taking Seattle
The somewhat paradoxical reality of fantasy football is that there is no one correct strategy, except maybe, “take the right players”. Team defense is yet another position that does not adhere to hard and fast rules. Waiting to be last to take a defense and liberally making use of the waiver wire was a strong move, especially if you picked up Kansas City and rode them for most of the year. Drafting Seattle in the 12th round or later worked out wonderfully if you just played them at home and in easy road games.
2014 Takeaway: Just don’t take a defense in the first 10 rounds, ok?
10. You can’t win your league in the first round, and you can’t lose it, either
The first round was seen as safer and deeper than it was in 2012. We wouldn’t have to push running backs like Chris Johnson and Darren McFadden into the first to compensate for a small group of proven do-everything backs. The sad outcome was that the first round was as full of landmines as ever in 2013. Arian Foster and Doug Martin had seasons shortened by injury, and Ray Rice and CJ Spiller drafters just wish their backs’ injuries had been season-ending to spare them the pain of weekly disappointments in the box score. Trent Richardson was a dud, and even stalwarts like Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson ran out of gas before the finish line.
Plenty of teams that shanked their first-round pick won their league. My guess is that some of the teams that shanked two or three of their first four picks won. I heard from subscribers who started playoff lineups that included no players that they drafted.
An all-waiver wire lineup of Nick Foles, Zac Stacy, Knowshon Moreno, Riley Cooper, Keenan Allen, and Julius Thomas would have been a favorite in many championship matchups. The wide receiver leaderboard included many names available in the sixth round or later - Antonio Brown, Josh Gordon, Alshon Jeffery, and DeSean Jackson.
The resounding message from the fantasy football gods this year was: NEVER GIVE UP. Big injuries struck in large enough numbers that almost no teams escaped. Players rose and fell with sharp turns and changes of fortune that made yesterday’s #1 team tomorrow’s team going home in the playoffs. The FF gods rewarded effort and willingness to be open to things turning out vastly different than what we expected.
And in the end, isn’t that why we love this so much? It gets us to stare even more at the grand, epic undertaking that an NFL season amounts to. To try to incorporate every twist and turn into our ever-evolving understanding just what takes place on those fields every Sunday. An understanding that remains elusive, but seemingly close enough to our grasp to keep coming back for more.