The click click click of anticipation on the roller coaster continues as the top of the first hill gets closer. The first few twists and dips from training camp/preseason injuries and changing situations will get the wind in our hair and before you know, you’ll be screaming and maybe even puking just like old times.
While we wait for the tidal wave of new data to wash over us as training camps open, we can take one last snapshot of what we think we know after staring at this picture for too long this offseason. Let’s start with the QBs:
THE QB1
Peyton Manning, DEN - Yeah he won’t break the TD record again this year, but Peyton could give 10-15% of his numbers back and still comfortably lead the pack. Becoming intriguing in the third depending on your scoring system.
ELITE QB1
I’m liking the wide receiver value in the fourth and fifth too much to slot one of these names in there, but I won’t talk you out of taking them. Having Brees and Rodgers will feel a lot better in the playoffs, and a 4th/5th isn’t an exorbitant price.
Drew Brees, NO - The worry of the Saints going more balanced after they jettisoned Lance Moore and Darren Sproles was offset by the move-up in the first round for speedster Brandin Cooks. Brees will be Brees once again.
Aaron Rodgers, GB - In the seven games he finished before going down last year, Rodgers let the second tier of QBs, but was not producing at Brees/Peyton levels. I am a bit worried that the Packers are too content to win with balance to make Rodgers an elite fantasy QB again this year. He still goes in the elite tier on reputation.
MID QB1 w ELITE UPSIDE
I'm still toying with the idea of making Griffin or Foles my Plan A at QB this year.
Robert Griffin III III, WAS - He was borderline elite in 2012, and now he has better weapons and a QB-friendly head coach. Griffin will run less than he in his rookie year, but he should have every chance to lead the QBs who don’t go in the top 3. Becomes hard to pass up in the 7th/8th.
Nick Foles, PHI - Foles won’t be as efficient as he was last year, but the offense could be more efficient in year two of the Chip Kelly install. Foles loses DeSean Jackson, but gains Jeremy Maclin, Jordan Matthews, Darren Sproles, and a year of Zach Ertz development. On the whole, it looks like a wash, and Foles should be seen as basically the same fantasy commodity he was coming out of last year. Like Griffin, the NFC East matchups and bonus running points make him a solid pick in the 7th/8th.
Andrew Luck, IND - Luck’s weapons are upgraded with the addition of Hakeem Nicks and return of Dwayne Allen and Reggie Wayne, but will offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton really unleash him? The upside is elite, but he has been very up and down on a week-to-week basis so far and he will close more than Foles or RG3 despite similar ceiling and floor. Luck does get the putrid Dallas defense Week 16, so there’s that.
Matthew Stafford, DET - Stafford is a bit of riddle. He was pretty much at the level of Drew Brees with a healthy Calvin Johnson, but with a limited or absent Megatron, it was ugly. The addition of Golden Tate and Eric Ebron helps, but Stafford late-season fade last year make it hard to feel great about taking him in the top five QBs where he’s going right now.
SOLID QB1
It’s totally legit to just wait for the last of this group (ie Cutler), which isn’t quite punting QB, but gives you another few picks to go RB/WR before taking your passer.
Matt Ryan, ATL - Ryan was just off of elite production in 2012, and that was with a few inexpllicable duds at home. With White and Jones likely to be much healthier than they were last year and some reinforcements on the offensive line, consider Ryan a slow pitch you can tag for a single or double in the 7th/8th round. He doesn’t have Foles/RG3’s weekly upside, but he has a higher season-long floor.
Tom Brady, NE - Just don’t look at Brady’s numbers from the first half of the season when evaluating him as a fantasy QB unless you think both Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola will be out and the crop of 2013 rookie wide receivers won’t get any better and free agent Brandon LaFell will be a bust. Brady might even rejoin the Brees/Rodgers/Peyton tier. His play is eroding a bit and there is still the injury risk of his top weapons, but Brady is still low-hanging fruit in the 7th/8th.
Jay Cutler, CHI - Cutler has the best WR duo in the NFL outside of Atlanta (and maybe inside too), and an emerging #3 in Marquess Wilson, in addition to the Black Unicorn galloping up the middle of defenses. He will have a high weekly floor, although he hasn’t bee prone to the big game outbursts of everyone above him on this list. It is certainly possible that he reaches a new level of production in year two of Marc Trestman’s program. He’ll be there for you in the 9th/10th round if you want to wait even longer on QB.
BOOM/BUST QB1
I wouldn’t mind having a starter from this tier, but know the risk that you might be looking for a complement later in your draft or on the waiver wire if they continue to be shaky week-to-week plays.
Colin Kaepernick, SF - In his third year as the starter, Kaepernick should be ready to do more as a passer. He has the best wide receiver group in his three years by far, and the defense might not as stifling as years past, forcing the offense to open up. Kaepernick could still have the same old jarring week-to-week outlook and the 49ers seem to want to ease him in as a runner over the course of the season, but no one should be surprised if Kaepernick’s entire fantasy profile moves to higher rent real estate this year.
Russell Wilson, SEA - Wilson, like Kaepernick, could get more on his plate in his third year as a passer (Matt Waldman correctly brings up Ben Roethlisberger’s development as a fantasy QB here). He could still be quiet if Percy Harvin can’t stay healthy, and the Seattle defense probably won’t put him behind the eight ball and force a more pass-heavy approach very often.
Tony Romo, DAL - Romo, on the other hand, will need to keep up in track meets, but the Dallas defense could be so bad that other teams can play keep away and leave them with the fewest plays run in the league for the second straight year. The schedule is great in spots, but it was last year, too. Romo should be a low QB1, but he has less potential to be more than that, with the same low weekly floor, if last year is any indication.
Cam Newton, CAR - Newton appears to have a top five floor based on his first three years, but this year is shaping up to be rough unless Kelvin Benjamin is a rookie revelation. The offensive line is also under construction. Newton will have some big games and could have a nice season-end stat line yet again, but the weekly ride with him in your lineup will be rough to say the least. I’d avoid him when he’s going around the same point in drafts as Foles and Griffin.
LOW QB1
Boring, safe, reliable, and perhaps the smartest plays on the board at their low ADPs.
Ben Roethlisberger, PIT - Roethlisberger’s stats could actually look a lot like Matt Ryan’s at the end of the season. His weapons aren’t quite as good, but all indications are that he will be given the keys to the offense again, as he was for the second half of 2013, when he was a strong QB1 for a stretch. He’ a good QBBC-mate with Wilson or Kaepernick.
Philip Rivers, SD - Last year we had high ceiling Rivers in the first half of the season and low ceiling Rivers in the second half. He will get healthier and more talented young weapons this year, and there is some talk that new offensive coordinator Frank Reich will introduce more uptempo attack mode to the Chargers. Rivers could be a great value in hindsight, and he’s a suitable QB1 if you want to outwait the competition at QB.
Carson Palmer, ARI - Yeah, Carson Palmer. With the improvements on the offensive line, Palmer and his receivers could blossom in Bruce Arians vertical passing offense. I wouldn’t mind Palmer as a high weekly floor QB1 to pair with a Wilson/Kaepernick, or maybe even a QB1 in a 6 pt per pass TD league.
UPSIDE BENCH PLAYS
I would only be spending picks on these players in 2QB/QB flex, and deep leagues this year. While they have QB1 upside, that is cheap in drafts this year. The one exception would be if you don’t draft a top 15 QB and are trying to cobble together a committee.
Johnny Manziel, CLE - Has the highest ceiling and chance of hitting, but who knows when he’ll start? I’m not as convinced as others that it will be early, so he could tie up a roster spot for a while as you wait to see what you've got in him.
EJ Manuel, BUF - The Bills got a handpicked QB coach just for Manuel, and the offense certainly sets him up for big numbers if he can execute. Then again, I wouldn’t be surprised if he gives way to Thad Lewis.
Ryan Tannehill, MIA - Needs the offensive line to gel, but getting an offensive coordinator who was under Chip Kelly last year can’t hurt.
Jake Locker, TEN - Health is a real worry, but has a very QB-friendly head coach in Ken Whisenhunt and young ascending weapons at WR.
Geno Smith, NYJ - Ability to add value with legs is underrated and Smith gains a starting quality NFL wide receiver in Eric Decker. FInished strong in 2013.
BYE/INJURY/EMERGENCY BENCH QB
Honestly no reason to draft these guys unless QBs are scarce for some reason. You know exactly what you’re getting, which is a limited weekly upside and low weekly floor. These are likely one-week rentals at best with possible waiver wire appeal if they start hot.
Alex Smith, KC - Came on at the end of the year, but offensive line suffered losses and have poor weapon depth.
Andy Dalton, CIN - Will become a game manager this year.
Eli Manning, NYG - Anyone who owned him last year will never own him again, and he was prone to random poor games when he was relevant in fantasy leagues.
Sam Bradford, STL - Better numbers than you think last year, but come on, it’s Brian Schottenheimer.
Josh McCown, TB - Has quality receivers, but not Marc Trestman. I’m betting against him just picking up where he left off in Chicago.
Joe Flacco, BAL - Offense will be improved, but even at his best Flacco was never a fantasy QB1.
WAIVER WIRE ROLODEX
Ryan Fitzpatrick, HOU - He was relevant down the stretch with Tennessee. You never know.
Teddy Bridgewater, MIN - Lowish weekly ceiling, but could surprise if he’s ready to start early on.
Matt Schaub, OAK - Needs offensive line to improve, but underrated receivers.
Brian Hoyer, CLE - No Gordon hurts, but he had a fearlessness that tends to generate fantasy value last year.
Michael Vick, NYJ - Has fantasy relevance any time he starts, and Geno is far from entrenched.
Blake Bortles, JAX - Least likely of the three first-round rookies to start, but can run and might have fringe value as a starter.
Thaddeus Lewis, BUF - Bills tempo and running role for QB makes him interesting if he sees field.
Mike Glennon, TB - I’m not sure that McCown is better than him. Bye/Injury/Emergency value as a starter.
