Devin Funchess was one of the more difficult evaluations at the wide receiver position in this year’s draft. He had the look of a dominating receiver, but put up some disturbing tape in his final college season, and showed little understanding of how to harness the trump cards his measurable afforded him. He also never played with a traditional quarterback and flipped between tight end and wide receiver.
Being drafted by the Panthers could turn out to be a true blessing for Funchess, as they got the best out of Kelvin Benjamin in his rookie season, and are the only NFL team to get production out of Ted Ginn Jr. Even Philly Brown is exceeding expectations as a 2014 undrafted free agent. The team brought Funchess along slowly this season, but he’s played a sizable role the last two weeks, and made several big catches for the team.
After a four-week stretch that included games with over 60 yards and touchdown against Green Bay and Washington, many are assuming Funchess has arrived. There is even a small contingent of the fantasy community that believes down the line, Funchess will end up the superior receiver to Kelvin Benjamin in Carolina.
We know that live in game observations can be deceiving, and positive performances by rookies and young players especially tend to lead the audience to hyperbolize the results and assume improvement going forward. For these reasons exactly, Reception Perception can help contextualize a player’s performance to more accurately assess the reality of their on-field play. No player needs the Reception Perception treatment than Devin Funchess right now after a four game stretch with increased playing time, but still some ups and downs in the stat sheet. To do so, we'll look at his last four gmes played, which brings a fairly accurate half of a traditional Reception Perception sample.
Alignment data
One of the ideas that is most intriguing about Devin Funchess is his ability to move al around the formation. While Kelvin Benjamin is strictly their outside dominator threat, Funchess has more potential as a movable chess piece. While he plays mostly X-receiver this season out of necessity, it’s at least worth noting that Funchess took 23.4 percent of his snaps in this four game sample from the slot, in addition to rotating between both outside spots.
Kelvin Benjamin’s rookie year Reception Perception nullified any belief that his introductory season was based solely on volume. His numbers foretold a player growing into at least a functional no. 1 receiver. Sources close to the team have long held firm that Carolina views Funchess as the long-term compliment to their 2014 first rounder, despite any faction of the fantasy community wishing to force a narrative that Funchess is already the superior player. We’ve seen some glimpses of that plan unfolding even without Benjamin in the picture; Funchess acting as a movable chess piece to deploy in a variety of ways. Unlike last season, the Panthers showed no interest in forcing their rookie to play anything more than a small role early in the season. As the season’s progressed, he is playing more snaps, but we’ll see that the team is still treating him as a complimentary piece for now.
Target data
As mentioned, the Panthers didn’t rely on Funchess for much of anything early in the season. From Weeks 2 to 8, Funchess’ snap total decreased every game. Even when he had a productive game against the Green Bay Packers, the team responded with assigning a 22 snap game against the Titans. It was not until when Philly Brown missed the last two games did Funchess earn a starters playing time-share, and he led the team in receiver snaps played in both Week 11 and 12.
Even in this four game sample where the team looked to get him more involved, Funchess was only targeted on 24.3 percent of his 74 routes. That involvement level speaks to a player that, while seeing more work, is still not a focal point in the offense. Remember that prior to his injury, Philly Brown also led the team in snaps, but carried an inconsistent target share. It looks like Funchess slid into that role, and did not alter much simply based on his pedigree. Expecting him to be any more than an ancillary piece in his rookie season is still a reach, even at this point.
Early in the season, Funchess struggled with drops. While that was a big issue for his teammate Kelvin Benjamin last year, the team stuck with their 2014 rookie. The Panthers are willing to accept variance in their wideouts, and let them work out their struggles between the lines. Their patience is paying off with Funchess, who had a reasonable drop rate of just 5.6 percent of his targets in the four charted games.
Success Rate Versus Coverage and Route Analysis
It’s easy to call out that a rookie is experiencing a breakout after they string some production together in a stretch. However, as is often the case, we need a closer look to assess just what they are assigned and to what degree they’re executing.
We’re used to seeing young receivers, especially bigger players with a bevy of physical gifts run a stripped down route tree. The Panthers certainly dial up routes for Funchess where little nuance is required, and he can just use his natural assets. Outside of Jerricho Cotchery, the other Carolina receivers are vertical players. Tedd Ginn and Philly Brown are speedsters who carry inconsistencies in all the other aspects of the game.
In this four game span, the team opted to just have Funchess assimilate to that model, dialing up 24.3 percent of his 74 routes as a “nine”. The rookie looks far better this season than he did in his final collegiate season in the vertical game and in tight coverage—66.7 percent contested catch conversion rate. Funchess’ other two most highly represented routes were the slant, post and curl, all of which fall into the simple route tree category mentioned. However, none of them checks in at an overwhelming rate. The Panthers are allowing Funchess to try his hand at several patterns, with only the corner, screen and “other” route barely registering on the radar.
As mentioned earlier, in time Funchess has the fluidity to end up the more diverse route runner to Kelvin Benjamin. His home should be as that movable chess piece while Benjamin focuses one thriving as the outside no. 1 receiver. Even in a limited look, the Panthers are trying Funchess out in a number of venues. His execution to this point, however, leaves a bit to be desired.
Believers of Funchess were falling all over themselves to declare the breakout in full effect after a 64-yard and one touchdown game against a long-beleaguered Washington pass defense. A close look at his Reception Perception numbers reveals there is still plenty of work to do amid positive signs.
While he’s made highlight worthy catches on the nine-route, and recorded 10.7 PTS, Funchess still only posted a 33.3 percent SRVC on that pattern. He certainly doesn’t carry the long speed to blow past a defensive back, nor does he have a semblance of the technical nuance to mix in some deception to sell deep patterns as underneath routes before going over the top. Big receivers like this always carry a size advantage to make them open deep even when well covered. However, a poor score down in the 30 percent range points to a player who will always struggle in the vertical game.
In other areas, Funchess shows his limitations as well. He clocked a 53.8 percent SRVC on both the slant and curl routes. He needs more reps in a traditional offense to develop in the timing portion of the game, and is quite raw at the breaking points of routes. Defenders know when he’s pushing back to the ball, or cutting in the middle of the field, which contributed to his poor scores on those mentioned routes and the comeback.
One route with an encouraging SRVC was the post. When Funchess can build up chunk speed with his long strides, he can put defenders in panic mode. In that crucial moment, he has the fluidity to dip his hips and turn infield, leading to a 62.5 percent SRVC on the post route. When he can learn to control his feet and harness his agility with better timing in the shorter routes, he can apply some of those same positives across the route tree.
While Funchess played some moments of pristine football against Washington and Green Bay, his contests infused around them against Tennessee and Dallas were troubling. In particular, his Thanksgiving performance in particular really hindered his Reception Perception numbers.
When viewed in totality, Funchess’ SRVC scores are actually quite dreadful. He scored under the NFL average for all four branches, with particularly troubling finishes against man and press coverage. In many ways, Funchess still does not know how to unlock or harness all the weaponry his build offers. He does not have a release move off the line, and can get beat back by press corners. There is far too little nuance to his game to regularly defeat man coverage. Funchess can certainly improve on these numbers in later season, and down the stretch in 2015. However, it is fair to note these were the areas many projected he’s struggle in at the NFL level, or at least providing consistent functionality in on a route-to-route basis.
However, these numbers don’t spell doom for Funchess in the slightest. Funchess is still a raw 21-year old rookie learning the ins and outs of the position. We’ve seen rookie receivers over the last year come into the NFL and break the mold to record big Reception Perception numbers. Players like Allen Robinson, Odell Beckham and Martavis Bryant that did that are now playing at a superstar level in their second seasons. Funchess is not of the same quality as that trio of receivers. It’s normal for a player with his background to struggle in the portions of the game he still is, and expecting anything to the contrary was foolish.
What these numbers do preach are a cautionary warning to raising expectations for Funchess for the rest of this season. He is not yet at a point where he can push for a fulltime lead role in the Panthers passing attack, and is no more a variance-laden player than Ted Ginn Jr at this point in their respective careers. He can offer plenty of value as a role player, of course. Funchess’ Reception Perception SRVC scores do beg anyone who thinks this rookie is no doubt better than Kelvin Benjamin, or even will be down the line, to reconsider. Benjamin came into the NFL right away and thumped Funchess’ recorded Reception Perception stats of almost every variety, while playing more snaps, seeing more targets and leading the Panthers passing attack. Our own Adam Harstad is doing great work in showing how volume is better indicator of player quality than efficiency stats. That theory fits right along with the narrative of these two receivers. The Panthers never intend, or plan on Funchess being the better player. In that light, he’s well on his way to proving a fine complimentary piece in this passing game for now, and down the line.
Going Forward
Devin Funchess took awhile to come one, but he’s currently playing solid football for an undefeated team surging to the playoffs. There are still some hiccups to his game, and his need for more refinement showed greatly on his Week 12 film against Dallas. Nevertheless, this has been a successful rookie season for Devin Funchess thus far, given the relatively limited assignments doled out for him.
Funchess’ early career playing time and less than stellar SRVC numbers make it hard to envision him breaking through to a super star level any time soon. However, no one should be shocked if he ends up a longtime positive force in the Carolina passing attack, which is more than his biggest doubters would have imagined on any other team. The Panthers coaching staff, and particularly Ron Rivera and Ricky Proehl, are doing excellent work with their young wide receivers. Proehl is drawing up favorable assignments for Funchess on the fly, while dipping his toes into the water enough to prepare him for more work in the years to come. Rivera is in sync with the front office, and didn’t divvy up the same role to Funchess given to Benjamin last year, recognizing the difference in their skill sets despite similar builds. Both developments will likely help Funchess succeed as a viable starting NFL receiver in the longterm.