Over the past week or so, the deck has shuffled on my rankings here at Footballguys.com and with the addition of contending and rebuilding positional rankings over at UTHDynasty.com. My focus has shifted to 2015 and beyond exclusively with the 2014 season winding down from a team-management standpoint. In this installment, the quarterbacks and running backs are front and center, with the pass-catchers on the docket for next week:
Quarterbacks
The top-6 on my board is the same as the preseason with Cam Newton slipping a little as the change of note. Newton has been beat up this season and one has to wonder if that alters his long-term rushing upside. This year has been a wash with Newton residing outside the top-20 in points-per-game.
Looking ahead, at some point a rushing quarterback needs to fully develop as a passer. We are seeing Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson in a similar boat where their biggest fantasy appeal is from the games of ample rushing production. Will their passing production increase as their rushing settles into a sustainable zone? That is the key question for dynasty owners. Russell Wilson has the explanation of not much receiving talent on the roster. Kaepernick has Anquan Boldin, the ghost of Vernon Davis, and will likely be losing Michael Crabtree in the offseason. As an aside, Steve Johnson is a sneaky stash on that depth chart into the offseason.
Ryan Tannehill has moved up since the preseason. I continue to see positive traits from Tannehill where his rushing upside supplements a developing passer. With a glut of quarterbacks that are all similar outside the top few, Tannehill has as much upside, or more, than any of them; he deserves to be in the top-8 or so.
Matthew Stafford, despite his strong Thanksgiving day performance against a toothless Chicago Bears pass defense, remains a frustrating fantasy and real life quarterback. His mechanics are all over the place, his dependency on Calvin Johnson is well-documented, and when the uber-volume is not there, Stafford is a middling option at best. At points in his career, he was viewed as the next great fantasy quarterback, especially following his 41-touchdown campaign in 2011. Since the start of 2011, only Eli Manning has thrown more interceptions. Looking at things from an interception-per-game standpoint, here are the quarterbacks (minimum 15 picks) averaging at least one interception per game over that span (stop me when you get to one with as much fantasy name value as Matthew Stafford): Blake Bortles (tops at 1.67 per contest), John Skelton, Rex Grossman, Kirk Cousins, Geno Smith, Josh Freeman, Mark Sanchez, Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Cassel, Matthew Stafford, Brandon Weeden, and finally Mr.Andy Dalton. Not exactly a who's who of long-term starters, let alone top producers. All that is to say, banking on Stafford as more than a matchup play is a mistake. The quarterback position's importance in the average fantasy league is minimized in general, but the time has come for the consensus, whether contending or rebuilding, value for Stafford needs to shift downward to account for this long-standing trend.
Down the board, the rookies have moved up in general from the preseason. The lackluster veterans have helped them, but all have shown some positive traits along the way. I wonder what Derek Carr will be able to do with a legitimate weapon or two. Zach Mettenberger has flashed some of the best pocket performance of the bunch through a handful of starts. Teddy Bridgewater and Blake Bortles have the rushing boost and are in tough situations to success out of the gate. Johnny Manziel and Logan Thomas are very much 'wait and see' options for deeper leagues. The biggest question with rookies in general, especially quarterbacks, coming into dynasty leagues is 'what is their ultimate upside?' For quarterbacks, a run-of-the-mill QB2 is rather worthless outside of quarterback-premium leagues. The odds say only one, maybe two, of the 2014 rookie quarterbacks will log a QB1-level season in their career. I handicap Blake Bortles as having the best chance of the bunch, but the water is murkier than in the preseason.
For the veterans, Jay Cutler has moved down, along with Andy Dalton, Eli Manning, Jake Locker, and Robert Griffin III III. All have their obvious warts, a limited ceiling, tenuous hold on a starting job, or any combination of the three. All of them should be readily available on the trade market outside of a rogue Jay Cutler supporter or Griffin bandwagoner.
Ryan Mallett has been functional at times in his time starting in Houston, but not enough to deem him worthy of more than QB2 upside in the future. Sam Bradford is a lost name to track this offseason. Time is running out, but he is an afterthought compared to the names in the previous paragraph in terms of trade value. Carson Palmer is another currently injured option that could be comparable in terms of finding low-end QB1 production in the future for cheap.
Running Backs
LeVeon Bell and Giovani Bernard remain in the top-2 from the preseason. Bernard has dealt with an injury of late, but Jeremy Hill has not impressed me enough to alter Bernard's long-term outlook in the Bengals backfield through their rookie contracts. Isaiah Crowell is the biggest mover from the preseason. I was already optimisitic compared to the consensus back in the offseason, but the exile of Ben Tate (not that he was more than a short-term speed bump) and Crowell's strong play out of the gate on a run-first team has only fanned his dynasty value. With no more than a handful of quality long-term stashes, Crowell easily fits into the top-10 for all team directions and in the top-5 range for forward-looking owners.
Lamar Miller is another 'riser', but I less confident that Miller maintains his position by this time next year. Outside of 5-to-8 names, the tiers at running back are large and not huge hurdles for the 2015 impending rookie class. Tre Mason moves up after dispatching Zac Stacy of the starting job with ease. Charles Sims is in a similar boat with an earmarked starting job heading into the offseason. Mark Ingram moves up as he has run well with a larger role and is set to enter free agency
Montee Ball saw a huge downgrade from the top-5 status in the preseason. Ball will serve as a cautionary example when valuing backs primarily through situation. One still has to possess the talent to hold on to the job and warrant the glut of touches on a weekly basis. C.J. Spiller has tumbled down the board with a lost season for a past-his-prime on the age curve back heading into free agency. A Reggie Bush-like roles (or Darren Sproles) may be a best case scenario for Spiller. Doug Martin also entering the offseason with tremendous uncertainty in terms of role and rebounding to prominence. Martin was in the top-15 in August, but now is well outside the top-30. I hold out some hope that Martin resurfaces outside of Tampa Bay to a committee role or better, but the odds are far lower than a few short months ago.
Jeremy Hill moves down a handful of spots. His cameo as the starting running back in Cincinnati was not impressive on tape in my view and Giovani Bernard will get the nod over him, when healthy, for the next two years at a minimum. LeSean McCoy moves down a few spots with his decrease in passing game work, low touchdown upside, and Darren Sproles still having two years left on his current contract. Sproles is getting high-leverage looks in the red zone, like he did in New Orleans.
Shane Vereen is down the board as well. At no point has New England used him as anything more than a receiving change of pace option. Entering free agency, I place the odds against Vereen finding more than that elsewhere. Ben Tate has bounced around the past 12 months. Jerick McKinnon is a better talent and Adrian Peterson's possible return still looms in Minnesota. Tate is out in the cold in terms of opportunity and as a two-down option entering his age 27 season, the NFL market is rough. Add Chris Johnson, Toby Gerhart, DeAngelo Williams, and Pierre Thomas to the laundry list of running backs that offered some semblance of short-term appeal back in August that have moved to valueless by midseason.
Tyler Gaffney, Joseph Randle, and Branden Oliver were well down the rankings in August, but now possess enough upside of a future role or primary backup gig to be in the top-50 or higher mix. After the 2015 rookies are added, however, they are at risk to move down 10-15 spots each.
