With the Super Bowl in the clear rear-view mirror, NFL draft season is the ‘off-season Super Bowl.’ There are free agents, coaching changes, and revolving door depth charts to monitor, but nothing gets the spotlight like the announcement, one-by-one, of new talent being infused into the game we know and love. This series, breaking down the incoming running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends will be a six-part endeavor. Each position will get an overview pre-combine highlighting the different types of players, then a final scrubbing with the combine-pro day data in place.
As an overview, my projection model has been three years in the making. Each year it is tweaked and expanded with free time that exists from when the fantasy playoffs finish up in late December through the Super Bowl. The purpose of the model is specifically to improve upon and enhance the predictive nature of draft position and find the future fantasy difference-makers. No statistical basis that I have found can surpass the long-term accuracy of draft position. So the generalized tiers for rookie drafts or dynasty startups will be based upon the NFL draft outcome. That part of the equation unfortunately is the last part of the equation to come into the focus. Most of the time, a player’s draft range is established in February and March and they go in that range of 30-60 picks come draft time. So we do have a good idea of where they will go, but the ordering and landing spots are the largest variables across the board.
Why?
With more and more analysis and data out there for fantasy owners, the advantage gained is shrinking. Pick a part of the equation – rookie evaluation, statistical studies, coaching and depth chart analysis, trends, regression. The profit margin is razor thin in a league with a dozen or more tuned in owners. In dynasty and keeper formats, the areas to capitalize upon that I talk about regularly on Under the Helmet are creating a long-term advantage through rookie picks and parlaying ho-hum veterans into even more rookie selections.
One of the main counterarguments I get on twitter, through email, or just strangers ranting on the street (okay, primarily the first two) is that using statistics to project players A) leaves a ton out of the equation and B) ‘What about this player that breaks all the rules?’
In response to the first concern, as non-scouts the public masses cannot possibly be plugged into things like a real, traveling, paid scout that work with and around the NFL. The scouts and NFL teams are the ones most plugged into all of the nuances of the positions, the players’ backgrounds, injuries, and off-the-field issues. All of those factors are baked into the NFL draft. A talented player falls to the later rounds? Well, there is probably something going on that the general public may not have weighted into the valuation of the player.
The main reason to use statistical models and research is to enhance the tiers and probability breaks that exist with the NFL draft. For example, first round running backs have a ‘hit rate’ of 68% dating back to 1999; Second and third rounders drop to around 40%. Those are generalities with over a decade of players in the sample size. What I sought after (and still seek to improve upon each season) is to refine that system. When should I elevate a first rounder’s odds to 75% or drop them to 50%. When should a second round player have higher odds than a first round one? It is about refinement more than shattering the NFL draft skeleton and trying to outsmart the efficient market that is the uber-business of NFL scouting and player acquisition as a whole.
To answer the second concern, about all the rule-breaker players to these statistical guidelines, is that we remember the exceptions as time passes. We remember Anquan Boldin or Wes Welker’s slow 40 times and want to throw water on the importance of raw speed at wide receiver. Since Anquan Boldin, only three receivers with a 40 time slower than 4.60 have been drafted in the first two rounds of the NFL draft. So Boldin had plenty of other things working for him in the eyes of the NFL. Dwayne Jarrett, Michael Clayton, and Malcolm Kelly were the other three receivers. They combined for one season of VBD production, according to profootballreference.com, and that was Clayton’s rookie campaign. When discussing 40 times, as an example, Boldin’s name is mentioned far more often as an example of why it does not matter, more than Jarrett, Clayton, and Kelly. There are examples like this at every position through a myriad of statistical probabilities. What is most likely to happen if player X performs like this at the combine, produced this in college at these ages, and is drafted in this range of the NFL draft?
Narrowing the focus to the dynasty or keeper league owner, the valuation and accuracy or using rookie picks and acquiring young ‘unproven’ players is the basis point for long-term powerhouse fantasy teams. The pipedream goal is of course to nail every single rookie pick, cash out when they are fool’s gold in year one or two, and hoard the true impact players for a bulk of their prime years. Any owners with some time in that fantasy format knows how daunting of a task that is to accomplish. What is a reasonable goal? Beating the historical average in rookie selection and, most importantly, eclipsing the success rate of most, if not all, of your league mates. Therefore, my goal as an analyst, dynasty player, etc. is to seek a higher success rate than the NFL draft and my league mate peers. More hits and bigger hits mean a deeper, more valuable roster especially when compounded for a few seasons.
The Nuts and Bolts
My projection model is weighted based on the similar attributes (and strength) of the value-above-baseline fantasy producers when they were college prospects. In prior years only physical measurements, their final year of college production, and draft position were used to formulate their overall score. This year, age was one of the huge additions. With an age available for nearly all of the drafted players, it has become a lifeline for new tweaks to the system. With ages in place when players will hit the field for Week one of their rookie seasons, their production can be weighted accordingly through college. Multiple seasons of college production were added into the database and now not every season is created equal. A season of 80 rushing yards per game maybe be an above-average mark for an 18 or 19-year-old running back in college, but a lagging unimpressive season if that player is hanging around at 21-22 years of age against players largely younger than himself.
So the age-weighted production was a huge, game-breaking addition to the model that gives more context to the wide range of college statistics. In short, these players will be going up against older, stronger competition in the NFL, so it helps if they succeeded at the college level at 18-19 years old (ideally) when in a relatively similar circumstance. Going along with the age-weighting of production, the addition of multiple seasons of production gives a better overview of the player’s entire college career of work than a singular year. This aided in the identification of the ‘one-hit wonder’ type of prospect that did little outside of their final college season. Historically, they come with a greater level of risk than their equally-drafted positional counterparts.
Another was the separation of athletic characteristics and college production. Throughout these articles I will be referencing players that are more ‘athlete’ than production or vice versa. These groups have shown to be informational in terms of risk factor and potential ceiling at the NFL level. Also, the production of historical comparable players is far easier when paring down by, say, ‘elite athlete but lagging production’ or ‘small-framed, high-level producers in college, but lacking overt athleticism’ type questions.
This Installment
In part one, the running backs are the focus. Currently 44 players inhabit the 2014 class in my database. In recent seasons 20-25 backs gets drafted, so nearly double are accounted for at this point in time. A few will probably gain steam at satellite pro days before the draft and be added to the mix along the way. It is important to note that draft position is not accounted for at this stage in the process. Some comparisons will be made based on if he is drafted in a certain pick range pre-draft, but that is an estimate more than an adhered-to rule.
For this edition, the backs will be sectioned off into groups of similar players based on athletic and production overviews with comments along the way involving historical comparisons. The post-combine edition will be far more refined with exact measurements and times that are estimates from nfldraftscout.com at this juncture.
General Overview
Underclassmen are the name of the game in 2014. There are as many declared juniors and red-shirt sophomores in this year’s class than the 2012 and 2013 running back classes combined. Backs that will be younger than 22 years old for their first game in the NFL are gold in dynasty terms; the 2014 class is loaded with 10 of them. With the state of the dynasty running backs as whole (lacking quality producers in the first half of their productive career arc), the next two draft classes are vital for new blood. While my projections point to 2015 as the ‘year of the running back’ more than 2014, each class has something to offer.
Observing early rookie draft mocks, the wide receivers are stacking the top of the first round as the running backs are more situational values by and large to find significant work. Without knowing these backs’ landing spots or final draft position (combine numbers to follow in the future update), here are my initial thoughts:
*Total score, Athletic Score, and age-weighted Production Score based on 1-100 range by comparing them to all other drafted and notable undrafted prospects since 1999. Age and leaving school early are also factored into a player’s overall projection score.
*The first sets of listed only include prospects with a score of 60 or more overall, a strong indicator to have a better than average chance at meaningful fantasy production in the NFL compared to their like-drafted peers at the position.
*Remember that draft position will guide the ultimate tiers and these scores will alter the rankings within those natural groupings. While an overall score of 70 is a great starting point for a prospect, falling to the late rounds or undrafted status brings their fantasy prospects into a different probability range from the get-go.
Balanced Prospects
Jeremy Hill
There is a lot to like about Hill and he slots as the top back in the model at this point in the process. His 77 athletic score is second to only Lache Seastrunk in this class and his 75 production score is surpassed by only a couple major conference backs. In addition to all that, Hill will be 21.7 years old in August and gets the underclassman boost. Hill's early comparisons fall into the big-bodied athletes like Chris Wells, Marion Barber, Laurence Maroney, and Jamal Lewis. More of this comps are first round draft picks than not at this point in the process. The good news is that Hill was passable in the passing game at LSU, giving him a more well-rounded opportunity entering the NFL.
More Production than Athlete
Ka’Deem Carey
Carey scores a 90 in production, including an 87 as a pass-catcher, a range graced by many top-60 picks in the past 15 years. Names like Adrian Peterson, Darren McFadden, DeAngelo Williams, and Edgerrin james had similar age-adjusted college production. Good company to keep as production, more than overt athleticism, is a strong statistical indicator for fantasy backs. Carey had outstanding seasons for any age college back, but his get a boost by occurring at age 19 and 20. Entering the NFL at 21.9 years old as an early entrant is gravy. On the physical side, Carey is unlikely to be a combine riser in this model. His athlete score of 40 maybe gets up to 50-55 with great measurements, but a clear ceiling is there. A 40-time at or below 4.50 would help to show average speed for his size of NFL drafted backs in the past. Carey is a tough player for which to find statistical comparisons. LeSean McCoy is one notable name in the vicinity pre-combine.
Tre Mason
Mason pales to Carey in production with a score of 68. Mason was behind Carey at every age checkpoint along the way in college and that culminates in a 22 point differential at the end of calculation. Mason may end up passing Carey overall as he has a higher ceiling to ‘blow up the combine.’ In terms of overall score, Mason’s four point deficit is not much and Mason could even sneak into the balanced prospect category behind Jeremy Hill. At 200-210 pounds, a 4.45 or lower in the 40 would be ideal to boost Mason at the combine. Mason falls into the LeSean McCoy-light range and a few later round draft picks sprinkled in with lacking age-adjusted receiving numbers at Auburn.
Kapri Bibbs
Bibbs is a rarely-mentioned name by-and-large, but scores an 80 in production. His 24 score as an athlete is the lowest among the model’s top-10 however. If he confirms the 'lightweight and not that fast' label in drills, he will be an intriguing late-round (or waiver wire) selection in deeper leagues and nothing more. In terms of historical prospects, Ahmad Bradshaw and Reuben Droughns are two note-worthy names that were not top-75 draft picks.
More Athlete than Production
Lache Seastrunk
Seastrunk is the poster-child for upside athlete with middling production in this draft class. His early 81 athlete score is poised to rise as he may be the most likely to headline the combine with eye-popping numbers a la Christine Michael from a year ago. That 81 is tops in this draft class and just three other backs eclipse even 70 pre-combine. Last year six running backs had an athlete score of 70 or more as a point of comparison. His production score of 55 is passable with the most questionable part coming from his zero (yes, zero) receptions in a Baylor offense that was stubborn-at-best including the running backs in the passing game in 2013. Can Seastrunk do it? The passing game drills will go a long way to giving us a peak through that key hole in the coming weeks. Ladainian Tomlinson is the most noteworthy back that did little through the air in the college but was a PPR dynamo in the NFL. Outside of the immortal LT, there is little statistical evidence that Seastrunk is destined to turn into a big-time pass catcher in the NFL. Seastrunk mirrors the pre-combine measures of flashy backs like David Wilson, Lamar Miller, and Felix Jones of recent years.
Small School Runners of Note
Isaiah Crowell
Crowell is quickly becoming the Da’Rick Rogers of the 2014 class. Crowell performed as a very young player in the SEC before going to a lower-level of competition and finishing out his college career. Anything around the 4.50 range in the 40 for Crowell would check the box for his size. At best Crowell is probably a mid-round draft pick, so he is destined to be in the Da’Rick Rogers area of rookie drafts at best. Considering the upside of Crowell as a pure runner and the fluidity of rookie picks outside the top 15-20, he is already on the early target list. For owners that had Rogers on their short-list a year ago, Crowell fits that draft plan this year. For those that shy away from baggage and the topsy-turvy nature of potentially bouncing from team to team early in their NFL career, Crowell is likely on the do not draft list. Crowell has a great set of comparable names on his list, including top-100 picks like Bernard Pierce, Marshawn Lynch, and Laurence Maroney if his athletic score remains in the 70s.
Antonio Andrews
Andrews is basically an Isaiah Crowell-light in terms of prospect score. He is similar in athleticism and production (with a boost in receiving production), but comes in over a year older and with less upside considering he is not an early declaration like Crowell. Andrews has one of the highest BMIs in the class and already measured in with decent hand size on the all-star circuit.
Terrance Cobb
Yes, that Terrance Cobb. His production score of 92 is second overall in this draft class and equal to that of the more talked about Terrance West. Cobb is a better athlete than West too. While West is targeted to break 4.60 in the 40, Cobb may break 4.50….at a similar size. That’s a big difference. At this early stage Cobb is the only back to be in the 70-70 club of athleticism and production with Jeremy Hill. His biggest ding is entering the NFL at 23.6 years old.
Terrance West
West is right there among the most age-adjusted production in the draft class. He had not one, but two collegiate seasons averaging more than 2.5 rushing touchdowns per game. That’s a pretty ridiculous level of production in addition to his 164 rushing yards per game as a 22-year-old. There is talk that he will be a day two or early day three draft picks. If that comes to fruition, West will be one of the higher scores at the position in that range…and likely a little undervalued compared to the bigger names. West compares favorably to Joique Bell of draft classes past, a highly productive small school back with above-average athleiticism for his size. West will need to log some solid drill times to remain in that company in the post-combine update.
John Spooner
This rarely-mentioned Brown University product is young compared to most small schoolers, exceled with the lead back role, and may run a 40 time in the 4.35 range. Those factors alone get him on the radar in the late rounds or as a priority free agent.
Quick Hits
Here are some of the more well-known backs with overall scores in the 40-60 range:
Backs with scores in this range have produced with optimal depth charts out of the gate. Few end up as first round draft picks and they are considered less-than-ideal day two picks when they fall in that range of the draft.
Bishop Sankey – Expert opinions are all over the board from a day two pick all the way to round six or seven. His production score (65), early declaration, and age prop up his overall score of 59 at this point. A ton of his comparable backs are late-rounders with Ahmad Bradshaw the notable productive option. His above-average receiving score bodes well for his game to at least center around third downs at the next level.
Andre Williams - Williams is passable in terms of production (52), but has ideal size to be a two-down pounder in the NFL. If he weighs in over 220 (his estimate) any 40-time less than 4.60 will be just fine to check the box. His athlete score of 66 may sag a little post-combine with all of the more agile and burst-based drills added to the mix, but he is likely to remain above 50 regardless. With a Week one age of 22.0, he gets an age boost there. He has a little bit of a one-year wonder element with lagging seasons prior to his 21-year-old breakout in 2013. Williams is in a clear lower tier compared to Jeremy Hill with little chance to get close after the combine. Chris Perry and Ryan Torain are two comparables, but score as poor man versions of Williams.
George Atkinson III – He is basically Sankey in retrograde, a solid athletic score (59) and a lagging 35 in production. He could end up with one of the better 40 times for his size if he clocks a 4.45 range time. Another young, early declaration added to the mix.
Carlos Hyde – This is the elephant in the room with a ho-hum 57 overall score. He is a senior and will be 23.0 when the 2014 season kicks off. His age-adjusted production is very average as only 22-year-old campaign was anything of note above baseline. He also needs to outperform the 4.60 type 40 time that nfldraftscout.com is projecting. At his current rating, Hyde is unlikely to be a target within his draft tier come May. Best chance in his historical comparisons is Eddie Lacy, otherwise he falls into the Michael Bush and LeGarrette Blount range with an anemic receiving mark at Ohio State.
Charles Sims – He is the most well-known name in this category. Some like him in the top-20 of rookie drafts, but he will be a low score guy regardless of his draft tier. His production score of 60 is the only thing keeping his overall mark even above 30 at this juncture. He is old at 24.0 for Week one and his small hands are already discouraging in terms of his measurements. His total value is propped up by his high mark in the receiving game. Mewelde Moore or J.R. Redmond might be his reasonable expectations at the NFL level.
James White – With a 72 production score, White has a track record in college including an impressive age-adjusted season as an 18-year-old before Melvin Gordon was in the mix at Wisconsin. On the flipside, White needs to improve his athleticism score of 29, which will be tough with his already measured small hands and weight in the 200-210 range. He will need a time in the 4.45-4.50 range to approach average speed for his size as a drafted running back.
De’Anthony Thomas – Thomas would need to log a sub-4.30 40-time for his size to even hit the baseline speed for drafted backs. In addition to average production, Thomas will likely be a role player in the NFL with a weight in the 170s. That said, his receiving game prowess, that 'water bug' factor could prove to turn him into a valuable NFL player through special teams and a situational role on offense.
Devonta Freeman – Along with Carlos Hyde, Freeman is probably the second surprising name in this range. Freeman’s marks are pretty non-descript across the board outside of being an early declaration for the draft. He will be 22.5 years old, likely average speed for his size, and did not top 75 yards-per-game in any college season. In the same offense, James Wilder, Jr. averaged more yards-per-carry than Freeman too. Freeman has Andre Ellington within his range of comparisons.
James Wilder, Jr. – Wilder and Freeman are close in overall scores with Wilder having the athletic edge on less production. Both probably hindered one another being in the same Florida State backfield, but another side of the argument would be that if one of them were all that special, they would have gained market share along the way. Wilder fits the mold of a two-down bruiser in the NFL with a low ceiling based on his current projection score. Chris Ivory and Kevan Barlow are two names that fit well from his historical comparisons.
Marion Grice – Another back that just blends into the masses with average production and lacking athleticism. Not overly young either. Grice is in a group of about 20 similar backs that will sift out through the combine and pro day results.
Here are some backs with scores of less than 40 in the early going:
Historically, scoring less than a 40 in this model is close to the kiss of death for running backs for future glory. The best chance has been for backs with average athleticism and low-level production that landed in good spots for production. A few of the historical highlights in this range include Joseph Addai, Benjarvus Green-Ellis, Shonn Greene, Stevan Ridley, and Alfred Morris. The common theme is that even when they are producing, dynasty owners have concerns that they would not hold a job for the long-term or have a tempered ceiling even with proper volume. Addai may be the biggest exception to that generalization as he had the benefit of a Peyton Manning-led offense that has churned out running back production over the past 15 years or so.
Outside of strong combines or overtly positive landing spots, these backs have an uphill climb to relevance:
Tyler Gaffney – Gaffney was a compiler in big games for Stanford, but was older than his peers with a 22-year-old senior season. A 40 time in the mid 4.5s would be good enough to be a decent power back option at the NFL level. The risk level is higher than normal for a back of his age from a major conference because of the ‘one hit wonder’ production in his profile.
Rajion Neal – An average athlete and a 19 in production with a single season over 75 yards per game on the ground.
Jerome Smith – An early declaration for the draft, but production score of 14 gives a high-risk profile. He needs to run in the 4.55-4.60 range and passable in the other drills to keep his above-average athleticism score.
Darrin Reaves – Marks between 30 and 50 in both athleticism and production scream replacement-level in all facets at the next level.
Henry Josey – Being a likely sub-200 pounder when the official weigh-in coming in, Josey needs to post a 40 time in the low 4.4s for his likely role in the NFL. His production score of 51 is passing, but as a likely later round selection, there is nothing to latch onto as a reason for optimism.
Alfred Blue – Blue was in a crowded LSU backfield, which explains some of his anemic production (score of 16) that topped out as 68 yard per game as a 21-year-old. With that wart and entering the NFL at 23.4 years old, he needs a huge combine to project as anything of note for fantasy purposes.
Ladarius Perkins –Like Blue, Perkins has a production score in the mid-teens and a likely athletic score in the 40-55 range post-combine. Perkins had good sized hands when measured in January, so a small step in the right direction. Next step: dominating the drills if he wants some fantasy juice in the model.
Trey Watts – He has scores in the 10-25 range for both athleticism and production, leaving little hope for the older prospect.
Josh Ferguson – He currently has the lowest total score, 10, of any running back in the database since 1999. It was be a big surprise if Ferguson got drafted or had much priority-free-agent buzz come May.