Jason Wood's Thoughts

If fantasy production was solely correlated with ability, Andre Johnson would be a sure fire top 10 fantasy option. But as we all know, fantasy production is as much about one's supporting cast and situation (i.e., your OPPORTUNITY) as it is about one's ABILITY.

Let's be clear about one thing, Andre Johnson's abilities should not be in dispute. Johnson has excellent size (6'2", 221 lbs.), speed, and hands (only 4 drops in 131 targets last year). His 489 yards after the catch (YAC) were 2nd best among NFL receivers. And despite playing on a run-first, conservative offense he ranked among the league leaders in "big plays" with 13 (i.e., receptions of 25+ yards).

The issue fantasy owners have to wrestle with is whether or not Andre Johnson can overcome the systemic issues that somewhat inhibited him from making the leap into the league's elite fantasy producers last season.

After an impressive 2003 rookie campaign (66 receptions for 976 yards and 4 TDs) where he finished 23rd among fantasy WRs, many figured Johnson would easily finish among the top 10-15 WRs last year as he and the rest of the Texans offense matured. But last year, despite showing solid growth (79 receptions for 1142 yards and six TDs), Johnson only finished one spot higher on the fantasy WR rankings (22nd).

The problem wasn't with Johnson, as we've already shown. The problem was that HC Dom Capers and OC Chris Palmer continue to call an ultra-conservative game and the team, as a whole, only threw the ball 472 times (24th in the league).

One of the issues was the team's inability to protect franchise QB David Carr. The Texans allowed 49 sacks a year ago, as the team's efforts to find a suitable pair of tackles continued to flounder. This season, the team hopes that newly signed Victor Riley can push Seth Wand at LT. If you can get comfortable with the idea that Carr will have time to set in the pocket and deliver the ball, it's not difficult to expect further improvement for Johnson.

But what about Johnson's supporting cast, defenses just keyed on him last year and shut him down? This is true. As the season wore on, defenses became more effective at stopping Johnson by overplaying him. Without other threats in the WR/TE corps, defenders could cheat on AJ; and they did with great success. Against all three division opponents (IND, TEN & JAX), Johnson's production waned in the 2nd matchup; that's all the proof you need. So is there hope this year? I think so for two reasons. 1) Johnson will get better at handling double teams. Many great receivers produce in the face of double teams and creative zone shifts. And from what I've seen of Johnson, he has the ability but only needs the experience. 2) I personally think rookie Jerome Mathis has the talent to step into a major role this year, and he along with further development of Derick Armstrong, should give the Texans legitimate receiving options alongside Johnson.

Positives

• Johnson is a playmaker, he finished 2nd in YAC and 6th in "big play" receptions despite being uniformly double teamed and playing for a conservative passing attack
• Johnson improved in nearly every facet of his game (yardage, drops, blocking, TD production) in his second year
• QB David Carr finally showed glimpses of being an above average passer last season, if the line can keep him on his feet, Johnson should be a major beneficiary

Negatives

• Despite solid reception and yardage totals in his first two seasons, Johnson's overall fantasy ranking has been impeded by less-than-stellar TD production
• If I'm wrong about WRs Mathis and Armstrong, Johnson could again be subject to double coverage on every passing down
• David Carr has been pounded and the Texans failed to address the OL sufficiently in the offseason (they did try to sign Orlando Pace, but that fell through)
• HC Dom Capers and OC Chris Palmer are very conservative

Final Thoughts

Let's not forget that in just his second season, Johnson caught 79 receptions for 1142 yards and six touchdowns, and WAS a top 24 receiver (which means he was starting caliber in most 10- and 12-team leagues). The only metric that's been a disappointment has been his TD production, and history has shown that TD production is the least predictable fantasy statistic. If we assume even modest improvement in the Texans offensive line and the complementary receivers, there's no reason Johnson can't make his ascension into the fantasy elite. Barring injury, expect Johnson to be a solid WR2 at the very least, with upside into the top 10 at his position. Draft accordingly.

Chase Stuart's Thoughts

Andre Johnson ranked as the 23rd and 22nd fantasy WR his first two seasons in the league. Despite considerable talent, the former third pick in the draft has landed in a terrible situation for fantasy owners. The Houston Texans are coached by Dom Capers, one of the most conservative coaches in the league. Many expect Johnson to breakout in 2005 with a big season, but Johnson may not score enough to meet expectations.

Johnson had just 13 targets from inside the twenty – tied for 29th among WRs – and only one target from inside the five. In 2003, Johnson was targeted just 10 times in the red zone – tied for 48th among WRs. The Texans rank dead last in the NFL with just 88 pass attempts in the red zone the past two seasons. Houston made no significant changes in either the coaching ranks or the offense, and it’s difficult to see why Johnson should catch more than six to eight touchdowns this season.

Nearly all stud WRs need a solid QB to help them reach their potential. Despite being the number one overall pick, David Carr has yet to develop into a star QB. His numbers improved in year three, but that was in large part due to an extremely easy schedule and the new rule changes that helped all QBs. Particularly worrisome is how Carr dropped off in the second half of the season.

• First Half: 160/251, 63.7%; 2,162 passing yards, 8.61 Y/A; 9 TD/5 INT
• Second Half: 125/215, 58.1%; 1,369 passing yards, 6.37 Y/A; 7 TD/9 INT

There IS a difference between how good a WR is in fantasy football and in professional football. And while Andre Johnson may be a top 10 WR in the NFL, he’s far from that in fantasy land. An inconsistent QB and a conservative coach will prevent Johnson from posting big numbers – again.

Positives

• Andre Johnson enters his third year in the league, and has played with the same HC, OC and QB each year
• By nearly all accounts, Johnson is one of the elite young talents in the league, and will one day become a dominant wide receiver
• Johnson saw improvement across the board from Year One to Year Two
• With below average pass catchers at the other receiver positions and tight end, Johnson will be Carr’s main target often in 2005
• Johnson’s 489 yards after the catch last season ranked first among AFC WRs

Negatives

• Take your pick out of Dom Capers, OC Chris Palmer and David Carr. Whatever the reason, Johnson’s yet to see his production match his highly touted ability
• Without a good supporting cast, Johnson will be the focus of opposing defenses
• Johnson had less than 60 yards in eight games last year; on a run first/conservative offense, it’s unrealistic to expect Johnson to be a consistent fantasy producer
• Johnson averaged just 53 yards per game from week 9 to week 17. After a strong start, opposing defenses realized that no other WR on the Texans could beat them
• Despite many offensive improvements last year (Houston ran 106 more offensive plays, improved in every passing category, and both Carr and David Armstrong played better), Johnson failed to crack the top 20 WRs last season. The Texans ranked 16th in passing yards last year, and I doubt they’ll rank higher than that this season

Final Thoughts

Andre Johnson is almost always among the first ten wide receivers drafted, and there’s little statistical basis for that. If you can manage to get Johnson in the mid-teens, go for it, but not any earlier than that. A look at Dom Caper’s top WRs each year:

Year Top WR Rec-Yds-TDs

2004	A. Johnson	79-1142-6
2003	A. Johnson	66-976-4
2002	C. Bradford	45-697-6
1998	R. Ismail	69-1024-8
1997	R. Carruth	44-545-4
1996	M. Carrier	66-1002-3
1995	M. Carrier	58-808-6
Average		        61-885-5

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Iwannabeacowboybaby!:
Andre Johnson has tons of talent but hasn't proven that he can be consistent enough to be a top 10 wide receiver. Houston's passing game may have something to do with it but I just don't see him living up to the hype surrounding him this year.

Winning IS Everything:
[Johnson] is a young kid still learning the game and has been surrounded by others in the same boat. I think as this offense gels this year we will see better numbers from Andre. He will still have those low point games but should be better all around. A decent #1 but a great #2 fantasy WR.

ILUVBEER99:
Last year the Texans were content with a philosophy of playing not to get blown out, they weren't playing to win. Late in the season there were many times they were down in the 2nd half and were content to just throw a few dump offs, run some clock, and punt...something that a team that is leading usually does. If they start playing to win I see a solid year for [Johnson], if they are content to lose like last year then it will be another frustrating year for AJ owners.

fightingillini:
Andre Johnson has great size, speed, and skills to be a dominant WR. However, he plays on a run-first team (especially in the red-zone), and Carr is somewhat mediocre. Carr checks off to D Davis way too often for me to have complete confidence that Johnson will be an upper-echelon WR.

TheClearTheCream:
Finally, I think AJ could easily catch 100 balls and rack up 1300+ yards but given the history of leaving him out of their offense, Carr getting sacked way too many times and lack of solid coaching to exploit teams defensive backs covering AJ, I can't honestly say this will be the case, coaches typically will go to their grave before then alter their style.

Andre Johnson Projections

SOURCE	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Jason Wood	0	0	82	1210	7
Chase Stuart	0	0	75	1080	7
Message Board Consensus	0	0	79	1135	8