Individual Defensive Player Tiers - Defensive Lineman

Posted 6/16 by Sigmund Bloom and Jene Bramel, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

There have been a number of discussions in recent years about using tiers to craft a draft strategy and better define the tipping points in our IDP rank lists. With that in mind, we thought we'd do a series of articles to critically look at our own rankings and how to use them. We'll start with the defensive line, then move to the linebacker and defensive back positions later in the series.

The Gold Standard

Sigmund Bloom: We can all agree that Jared Allen belongs in this group, the rest of the group (or whether there should even be a "rest of the group") is where the great debate lies. Some of the questions you have to consider include - "With the return of Osi Umenyiora, and addition of Chris Canty and Rocky Bernard, do ANY of the Giants DL belong in this tier?", "Can we include a player (Terrell Suggs) who hasn't had a double digit sack season since the first term of the GW Bush administration?", "How about a player in a hockey line rotation system (Trent Cole), one of the most dominant and inconsistent players in the game (Julius Peppers), and an elite talent stuck in a middling to bad defense (Mario Williams)?"

For that matter, Jene you might even disagree that Tuck, Osi, and the other four players mentioned comprise the complete list of players in consideration for the Gold Standard tier.

When it comes time to decide who makes the cut, only one player survives, and that's Mario Williams. Williams has had "Gold Standard" stretches already - the second half of 2007 and the first half of 2008. Unlike his only physical peer at the position, Julius Peppers, Williams has overcome his inconsistent effort issues, and sooner or later, he's going to finish as DE1. With the addition of Antonio Smith and Connor Barwin to provide a credible pass rush threat opposite Williams, I think this is the breakout year. The only real problem here is that at least two of our staffers have Williams ranked as DL1, and none have him lower than DL4, even though he hasn't finished higher than DL8 in his first three years in the league, so you take on a lot of the risk, and you only really benefit if he does make the leap this year. Because of that, I can't necessarily say Williams should end up on your team. He's the kind of player that someone will reach for in every draft, maybe even take before Allen, so the best strategy is to wait for the guys who fall from the next tier, the clear DL1s who aren't quite the gold standard, instead of building around one of the gold standard. Even Allen has some risk this year - he faces two of the hardest QBs to sack from last year in week 15 and 16, Jake Delhomme (20 sacks) and Jay Cutler (12 sacks).

Jene Bramel: I agree. Although I really like Trent Cole and his 50-10 potential, I think Allen and Williams have to be the consensus top two. The STARCAPS business wouldn't scare me off of Allen given his years of production in Kansas City. If anything his tackle numbers might see a bump with both Williams' suspended. And Williams shows every sign of being a consistent 45-12 guy. Both have very little downside.

I think you've hit on the key question for us in 2009. Do you "reach" for a stud DL? With the 3-4 taking over the league, the pool of above-average defensive ends continues to shrink. We're losing Aaron Kampman and Tamba Hali this year. Elvis Dumervil is off the table as an upside bench target. Julius Peppers and Terrell Suggs aren't entirely immune from a reclassification this August. Incoming rookies like Brian Orakpo and Robert Ayers have questionable value. The war of attrition is starting to catch up to steady vet options like Kyle Vanden Bosch, Aaron Schobel, Patrick Kerney and has seemingly already claimed Leonard Little and Derrick Burgess. After the top seven or eight names, you could make an argument for a whole host of players to finish in the top ten - and not necessarily because they've got big talent.

Assuming your league scoring supports it, I think this is the season that you strongly consider being the owner that grabs Williams or Allen instead of Patrick Willis as the first IDP off the board. In fact, I think this is the season that you might consider starting your IDP roster DL/DL. Should you choose to bypass Williams or Allen (or someone beats you to them), I think you have to immediately switch gears and attack the next tier - which is where the real discussion begins.

Starting Caliber Tier

Bramel: For me, the next tier discussion includes Cole, Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck, Peppers, John Abraham and Suggs. I think Suggs remains a DE this season and I think he and Cole are the guys with the lowest floor. They may not have the track record of huge sack seasons or monster weeks that win a game for you by themselves, but they have to be considered locks for two-way, 45-50+ solo, 8-12 sack production. There's almost no way they finish outside the top ten short of a serious injury. I have the two of them a half tier behind the gold standards, but ahead of the other solid options due to a higher downside.

I'd call them the DL1As and rank them:

Trent Cole
Terrell Suggs
Osi Umenyiora
Justin Tuck
Julius Peppers
possibly John Abraham

Those seven-eight players (I'd drop Abraham if you're in a very tackle heavy system) are the list of DLs that I'd consider doubling up on to corner the market and try to assure yourself of a huge relative positional advantage. I think this question needs to be the tipping point of your 09 draft plan. Do you agree that the list of impact linemen is that short and that those names are significantly ahead of those behind? Are you confident enough in your ability to tease out LB and DB value that you'll chance the DL advantage? Or would you rather play roulette with the monster group of guys who could finish in the teens with a big game now and then and lock in a consensus stud LB?

Bloom: I completely agree on starting DL/DL and forgoing an elite LB to anchor your LB corps - more on the rationale for that when we break down the LB tiers. I have always subscribed to the school of thought that says have a DL1 as your DL2 if you want to win your IDP league. However, I prefer taking two of the DL1A tier that Jene fleshed out, simply because you might have to reach for Jared Allen or Mario Williams to land one of them. That being said, if your leaguemates are LB happy and more than a round passes between when Willis goes off the board and your next pick and Allen still isn't off the board, go ahead and break the DL seal by selecting him.

Jene and I do differ on the order of the tier, and I have one more DE in the DL1A tier than he does.

I'd put Suggs at the top of the tier because he is playing for a contract and he gives that safe baseline of a strong tackle total because of his hybrid position - Suggs only had two games below five fantasy points last year. He also demonstrated a huge pain threshold when he sacked Big Ben twice in the AFC title game despite having a badly injured shoulder. He hasn't missed a game in the last four seasons. He's worth taking at the top of this tier. I have Tuck second because despite the uncertainty that goes along with playing in the deepest DL unit in the league, I think Tuck can easily pick up where he left off. He's a tremendous pass rusher from the undertackle position, and he should be more efficient at generating numbers even if he gets fewer sacks because of the increase in quality of players around him. Three of our staffers have him in the top three, so chances are you won't have to debate taking Tuck unless you are high enough on him to make him one of the first three DL off the board. It's risky, but I have Peppers next in the tier. He's playing for a contract, and he was unstoppable at times in the second half of the season - with 10.5 of his 14.5 sacks coming in the final eight games. He could easily be the #1 fantasy DE if he keeps it up, and he has everything to play for since his next contract will be the biggest one he gets in his professional football career.

That group makes up my "half tier behind the gold standard":

Suggs
Tuck
Peppers

Cole falls to the next half tier because I think his 59 solos was a bit of an outlier, and his nine sack total was not. He's a quality DL1, but I don't see potential for him to have a gold standard type season like the three above him in this tier. The Eagles are also deep at DE and if Bryan Smith develops and they figure out how to use Chris Clemons, he could see fewer snaps. I'm not sure what to do with Osi Umenyiora. Three of our staffers have him in the Top 5, so with my ranking of DL7, I may not have to worry about it in most leagues. He's got the talent to be a Top 5 DL, but he was also a more of a DL2 in 2007, outside of his six sack outburst vs. the Eagles, and he missed significant time with an injury in 2006. So you have to go back to 2005 to see the consistent DL1 production and health that you would expect to come with such a high pick. I agree with Abraham at the bottom of the tier, and not just because of his low tackle totals. He's still not playing yet because he's recovering from the wear and tear of last season, and he's been known to miss a lot of time with injuries throughout his career. I would add one more player to this tier, and even go as far to say that you should target him as your DL2 - Robert Mathis. Like Abraham, Mathis has had issues with durability, only playing one full 16 game season in his career, which should make the fact that he has been in the Top 10 DEs three of the last four seasons even more impressive. To put it simply, he's a gold standard player when you look through the points-per-game lens. The reason I am particularly high on Mathis for this season is that I think that last year was a bit of a fluke for the Colts because Manning's condition made them slow out of the gate. Mathis peaked late in season, with a six sack in three game stretch from week 12 to 14, and then a two sack performance in the playoff loss to San Diego. I expect the Colts to be back atop the division this season, often playing with the lead, and I expect Mathis to easily perform at a DL1 level.

So the following are in the second half of tier DL1A:

Cole
Osi
Abraham
Mathis

So the next question as I see it is "Who do you target if you can't land two DL1s?" I see the next group made up of two distinctly different types of players. Young studs in waiting that we are looking to produce a breakout season, and old vets who can produce DL1 numbers if health and situation come together. The uncertain nature of both groups means that you don't want to be relying on more than one of them.

Bottom-level DL1 Tier

Bramel: I think Robert Mathis is a very interesting player this season. I have him ranked 12th right now and the consensus FBG staff ranking at the time of this exchange was 9th overall. If there are indications that he'll be used in more of a full time role by the new coaching staff, he moves up into the 1A tier for me. For now, I have him in a transitional tier of sorts with four other veteran names - Aaron Schobel, Kyle Vanden Bosch, Adewale Ogunleye and Justin Smith. There's an argument that any of these five vets belong in the DL1A tier. After all, what's so different about the recent injury history of Vanden Bosch and Umenyiora? Ogunleye's solo tackle numbers rival almost anyone else's in the top fifteen over the past two seasons. Schobel finished as a DL1 for five straight seasons in FBG scoring from 2003-2008. Smith is a lock to approach 50 solos. You can't say that about Umenyiora, Peppers or Abraham.

Why, then, are they outside the DL1A tier? I think it's a matter of trust. Significant lower leg injuries in pass rushers over the age of 30 should raise a red flag. For every Michael Strahan, there are more Leonard Little and Derrick Burgess frustrations. Schobel is 32 and recovering from a Lisfranc injury of unknown severity. Vanden Bosch is coming off a season fraught with groin issues. Both had their pass rush consistency questioned before their injuries. Ogunleye and Smith are solid tacklers, but have been very inconsistent pass rushers and aren't capable of the monster games those above them seem to regularly produce.

I've got this group ranked:

Schobel
possibly Abraham
Vanden Bosch
Ogunleye
Mathis
Smith

That brings my rank list to 13 names. If you're sloughing defensive linemen, I think you have to get one before this group is exhausted. The risk is too high to rely on a rotation of guys that come after this group. Guys like Smith and Ogunleye aren't sexy, but they'll bring stability to your lineup if you're forced to rotate the DL2 slot. If you've drafted one of the top guys in the earlier tier, though, you might consider bypassing this group (and some other veterans I've got outside this tier) for one of the players with breakout potential.

I think this is where you and I might begin to differ, Sig. I'm guessing you might have a short list of young guys with big potential that you'd rather risk over a previously productive, but high risk vet, even as your DL1.

The DL2 Tier

Bloom: Jene is right. I am just as inclined to take a chance on a very talented young player taking the next step as I am to grab the declining vet who is trying to regain his old form when it comes time to take a DL after the guys with Top 5 upside are gone.

I see the DL2 tier covering DL10-16, with two kinds of players - reliable vets and young players looking for the breakthrough season. The group starts with Justin Smith. While he's not going to light up the box score with sacks, his role in the 49ers 3-4 gives him plenty of tackle opportunities, and he really came on in the sack column when the team started winning late in the season, with 4.5 sacks in the final five games. He's the safest pick of this tier by far.

Second in the group is Gaines Adams. Anyone with eyes can see that he's one of the most talented DEs in the league, and sooner or later his time will come. The Bucs are going away from the cover two under new defensive coordinator Jim Bates. They plan on lining Adams up wider outside of the OT, which should harness his cat quick first step. Jason Taylor had 19 sacks in a season when Bates was his DC. Let's also remember that Adams is only entering his third season, and like WR, DEs often take until the 3rd season to "get it". Don't be surprised if he's knocking on the door of the Allen/Williams tier by the end of the season.

After that I have two more young breakout candidates - Mathias Kiwanuka, who should only be held back the fact that he'll miss some tackle opportunities on early downs with the return of Osi Umenyiora, and Chris Long, who had underwhelming numbers as a rookie, but did have 16 QB pressures, which are the doubles that turn into home runs as a pass rusher develops. This pair doesn't have he upside of Adams, but they have almost as much talent, and either one could take an unexpected step into the elite - Kiwanuka has had the first full offseason of his pro career at DE instead of SLB, and Long is part of new head coach Steve Spagnuolo's attack defense.

The rest of the group is made up of solid vets with either risk, or limited upside. Adewale Ogunleye is coming off a career low in sacks, but he did have his second highest solo tackle total, and maybe he can get a few more QB pelts riding the wave of the energy added by the presence of Jay Cutler. Kyle Vanden Bosch had a nice run of healthy seasons until last year, then the injury issues that plagued his early career struck, and limited him to 10 games. He also lost Albert Haynesworth wreaking havoc inside, so offensive blocking schemes will be able to focus more attention on him. Aaron Schobel is last. Schobel's string of five straight Top 12 finishes was broken by a foot injury that limited him to five games in 2008. He's going to be 32 when the season starts, and let's remember that he was coming off a career low sack year in 2007. His days as an elite IDP option are over.

Smith
Adams
Kiwanuka
Long
Ogunleye
Vanden Bosch
Schobel

So, as you can see, your options are limited to hopes in the DL2 tier - hoping that a young stud can see everything come together and have a career year, hoping that stalwart presence in the defense can find their rhythm as a sack artist, hoping that some players on the wrong side of 30 can regain the form of their glory days. This is exactly why you should plan on getting two of the DL/DL1A tier.

Up-and-comers Tier

Bloom: Maybe we disagree on how early to take them, but Jene I know there are some young DL that you like to reach a new level of play this year - maybe they are coming up now that we've exhausted the list of vets with a track record that includes DL1 finishes?

Bramel: There are five players on my short list of breakout candidates this year.

I'm nearly as high on Gaines Adams, but I still hold concerns that Adams is another Dwight Freeney. I've been eagerly awaiting a double digit sack explosion; I had Adams ranked just outside my top ten last summer thinking that he'd take the second-season leap in pass rush so many other talented ends have done. However, the poor solo tackle numbers we're seeing from Adams must call into question whether he can produce elite two-way end numbers. There's nothing wrong with a 35-14 season. Freeney and John Abraham have been very good options at times. As an upside DL2, Adams is perfectly cast. Prepare for frustrating inconsistent weeks if you expect more.

The rest of the short list includes Seattle's Darryl Tapp, Jacksonville's Derrick Harvey, St. Louis' Chris Long and Detroit's Cliff Avril. They are mixed into my Top 25 with a few other solid, but unspectacular vets. I think they're better targets than the less than inspiring vets and defensive tackles that you'll be picking over outside the Top 20. With luck you'll be able to grab one as your DL3 behind two other very good options.

Aside from Adams, each of my breakout possibilities has two-way talent. Each owned a scouting profile that suggested they would play the run better well and each have flashed that capability early in his career. Long gets the benefit of a new scheme that will have him moving upfield on every play within a front that's looking to collapse the pocket early on every play. Avril will, like Adams, align a little wider in his new scheme and will have the protection of some decent pass rushers alongside in Julian Peterson and Dewayne White. I like Harvey also belongs in the deep pool of second year end guys with upside. He's the biggest boom-bust player on the list. He may have the best two-way potential of the Long-Avril-Harvey trio, but my gut says he's also got the lowest floor.

The guy I really like here, though, is Darryl Tapp. He's always been productive against the run, racking up 40 solos twice in limited time. He's shown the ability to change games, with a four sack game last year against St. Louis. He'll likely take over true every-down duties with Patrick Kerney struggling to get back on the field. I think there's 50-10 upside here, with a solid 40-7 floor. If you miss out on the back end studs as your DL2, Tapp would be a top target for me.

I'll let Sig clean up the breakout tier for me, but I think there are a couple of interesting vets that could be undervalued as we get into the DL3 and beyond tiers.

Bloom: Jene, you cleaned the plate of breakout candidates. The bottom line is this: if you want to spend a late pick on a high upside third DL, make it one of Avril, Tapp, or Harvey. Case Closed. The only other player I would include in the "upside DL3" tier is Dewayne White. Yes, White had trouble staying healthy last year. Yes, he plays for Detroit (although that means he has Avril on the opposite side). Still, if you project his first half stats from 2008 out to a full season, you end up with the top fantasy DL, and by over a point a game. He has demonstrated a nose for the big play dating back to his days in Tampa. If you miss the DL2 run and you're forced to take a young upside player instead of an established stud, make White your DL3, and ride him until he gets hurt.

The last vet to mention is Patrick Kerney, who has broken down on the side of the road the last two seasons, but he could still make enough hay to be worth a roster spot if he can reprise the hot start he had last year.

At this point, the rankings fan out into top DTs, DEs that at least have a history of good production, even if a return to those levels seem unlikely this year, and then to the boring baseline players and longshot breakout candidates. Before we delve into the DTs and sleepers, I'm curious if there are any other players you think should be considered as potential starters?

Bramel: I'm not sure what to think of Patrick Kerney. I'm leery of the multiple shoulder surgeries, but the motor and the legs are still there. He's risky until he shows he'll play and he'll almost certainly play in rotation. I think he's closer to Derrick Burgess/Leonard Little/Tony Brackens back end career than Michael Strahan's studly veteran resurgence.

My enticing-but-likely-sucker vet is Andre Carter. Greg Blache destroyed his value by moving toward a read-and-react front four last year, but has wondered openly whether the addition of Brian Orakpo makes a move back to a more aggressive philosophy the smart move. Carter will be 30, but has been very durable in recent seasons and isn't that far removed from a long stretch of solid production. His last eight games of 2006 and full 2007 season had him on a 50 solo, near double digit sack pace - with no one of note drawing attention elsewhere in the front seven. With Albert Haynesworth and Brian Orakpo there now, a subtle change in defensive philosophy could bring the 2007 Carter back. Watch the camp notes closely. Carter's value (currently outside the consensus Top 25 in our collective rankings) isn't going up and there isn't as much standing in the way of a 45-10 year for Carter as that ranking suggests.

DT Tiers

Bramel: We hit on the first key ranking/strategy question right out of the box (i.e. debating whether to roster two stud defensive ends), but we've neglected what I think is only a slightly less important issue. Last season, three defensive tackles finished in the top twelve in FBG scoring and seven in the top twenty five. Conventional wisdom has always been to avoid DTs in IDP leagues. Do you think last year was the first sign of a burgeoning trend or an anomaly that we shouldn't overreact to in 2009?

Bloom: I think you have to be very careful about counting on a DT in leagues that don't require playing them. The big three - Albert Haynesworth, Shaun Rogers, and Darnell Dockett all have issues. I would still take Haynesworth first in DT required leagues because he's the most talented, but he never plays all 16 games, and who knows how he'll do with a huge contract in a new defense? Rogers comes second, and he's the best at providing a good baseline of tackles against the run, but his effort and interest in the game comes and goes, and that will just be exacerbated on a poor Browns team. He's already been making noise about wanting to leave this offseason. Dockett is a bit of a cheat at DT since he really plays 3-4 DE, so the rug could always get pulled out from under you there, plus he lost his partner in crime in Antonio Brown. Dockett also had pedestrian numbers last year after a massive 2007.

In DT only leagues, I would say the best strategy is to wait and take Kevin Williams 4th or 5th off the board. Then take your chances with a sleeper/waiver wire pickup until he returns from his likely suspension. He is a supreme talent that belongs in the first tier of fantasy DTs, but he'll fall because of the time he'll miss. His production has been inconsistent, but he's the only DT who can really take over a game and win your week for you. Production from your DT is so fleeting, so why not swing for the fences?

After that, the DTs are bunched pretty close in my opinion, so if you don't take one of the elite, wait and be one of the last people to take a DT (or even don't take one at all if your league has waivers before the season starts). Here are my rankings of "the pack" at DT:

Haloti Ngata - Getting better every year and in a big play defense
Jonathan Babineaux - Great penetrator and gains Peria Jerry to distract offensive linemen.
Tony Brown - How will he fare in the wake of Haynesworth skipping town?
Kelly Gregg - If the knee is sound, he'll be a force against the run yet again.
Rocky Bernard - one of the better pass rushing DTs in the league joins the best DL in the league.
Kris Jenkins - Talent to match the elite, but faded a bit last year, and often frees up others to make plays instead.
Sedrick Ellis - Banged up for part of his rookie year, but showed a knack for getting after the QB and batting down passes.
Jay Ratliff - Playing the nose in Dallas, but rushes the passer like his natural position of 3-4 DE.
Tommie Harris - Ubertalented, but misses time and has cold stretches
John Henderson - His best football is behind him, but he's still a consistent box score presence
Tommy Kelly - Got hot midseason, but didn't live up to his huge contract.

As you can see, you wait until DT10 or DT12 and get virtually the same player you would get at DT5 or DT6. And I'm sure Jene has even more names to add to the list of players worth a pick in DT required leagues. In some ways, the best strategy if you don't take a stud is taking a warm body in your draft and waiting for the returns of the first few weeks and letting that dictate who your starter is for the rest of the season, because turnover at the top of the position in fantasy can be heavy, and just a few big plays can separate DT5 from DT30.

Jene, do you agree that DTs are still risky plays in leagues that don't require them - and how does your picture of the position differ from mine in leagues that do require them?

Bramel: It's not uncommon to see tackles finishing among the Top 25 defensive linemen. The difficulty is predicting who will be the ones to do it in any given season. You can make an effort to look at schemes, determine which teams will rotate and which won't and try to project talent, but there just aren't many slam dunk marriages of talent and situation in any given season. It's becoming a bit of a fool's errand to draft a tackle in the Top 25 as your DL2 or DL3, and that's coming from someone who has taken shots at guys like Tommy Kelly in recent seasons.

I don't want any part of guys like Albert Haynesworth or Shaun Rogers, whose weight and motivation are always question marks. In fact, I'm disappointed to check my rankings today and find both in my Top 25. On paper, such projections are very realistic. In reality, they aren't worth the risk. And you've rightfully listed a handful of players that have strong arguments for roster spots. So the smart plan is probably to wait and churn until you find a consistent hot hand, as you've suggested.

Despite the validity of that argument, Kevin Williams is really enticing to me this season. His situation, ignoring the STARCAPS business for the moment, would seem to be bulletproof. He's an established stud all-around performer on a line that boasts the ultimate space-eating nose tackle and arguably the best all-around defensive end in the game. He'll be getting three-technique snaps on nearly every play, and a good number of them from an underfront. The moment he slides into a value round in your draft, I'd snap him up. He's the only DT I'd risk making my DL3 this year.

If you don't get Williams rostered in a DT required league, I'd slough them until your league picks most of Sig's list clean. I'd also consider adding guys like Brandon Mebane, Damione Lewis and Pat Sims to that list as late round guys who could produce as DT1s.

You'll also want to watch two situations closely this summer. Be wary of adding Darnell Dockett as your DT. There's a buzz from league observers that the Cardinals will become more of a true 3-4 team this season, which could either see Dockett reclassified as an end or give him too many nose tackle snaps to stay afloat in the box scores. I'd also keep an eye on the progress of Glenn Dorsey in Kansas City. The scheme that made a solid performer out of Dockett is now in Kansas City and Dorsey is the most likely candidate to assume Dockett-like numbers. If he gets reclassified to DT, he belongs on the deep list of guys to consider late.

Sleeper Tier

Bramel: OK, SIG, time to wrap this up. Give me two candidates to come out of nowhere and be the guy nobody expected to have starting value. My votes go to Charles Johnson and Tyson Jackson. If either player earns a significant number of snaps in camp and start the season with good numbers, it won't be a fluke.

Bloom: My top two "out of nowhere" sleepers are Trevor Scott and Jason Jones. Both are entering their second campaign and should be much better prepared for the grind of the NFL after showing flashes of greatness in their rookie year. Jones should get DT eligibility in most leagues, so add him to the list of DTs to take very late in your draft. Remember, Jones had three and half sacks vs. the Steelers in Albert Haynesworth's absence, and Scott had a pair of two sack games, so both of them have already have shown the ability to go off in any given week.

Bramel: I think I may be missing the boat on Scott. I need to take a second look at his situation.

This is just a snapshot of our first thoughts on the defensive linemen. We're still weeks away from the open of camp season and plenty will change. Make sure you keep up with the rankings of all our FBG IDP staffers, remember to keep an eye on our IDP-centered message board and an ear out for our podcasts throughout the summer on the Audible.

Next up - the bread and butter of all IDP leagues - linebackers. We welcome all thoughts, suggestions and comments at [email protected] and [email protected].