Strength of Schedule: Defenses

Clayton Gray's Strength of Schedule: Defenses Clayton Gray Published 06/27/2013

The advantages offered by the Ultimate Strength of Schedule (USOS) when compared to traditional SOS displays are numerous and include (but are not limited to) the following:

  • Fantasy Points Driven
    Fantasy football is all about scoring fantasy points, so USOS is based on fantasy points.
  • Removed Bias Of Schedule
    Consider the following scenario: Defense A faced the Top 16 offenses while Defense B faced the Worst 16 offenses. If both defenses allowed opposing quarterbacks to average 300 fantasy points last season, are they equally strong? Of course not; Defense A is far superior as they faced much better offenses. This bias of schedule has been removed from USOS.
  • Positional Breakdown
    If you are looking for a running back, it's much more relevant to see SOS data for running backs (rather than simply rushing data).
  • Comparison Of 2013 Schedule To 2012 Schedule
    On the surface, a team with an easy schedule at running back should see better running back stats this year. Good schedule = bigger numbers than the year before, right? It seems logical. However, sometimes it's not enough to say that a team has an easy schedule. What if they had an equally easy schedule the season before? Equal schedule = similar numbers as the year before. USOS looks at the differences in schedule from this year compared to last season. An easier set of opponents this year points to increased production. A more difficult set of opponents this season points to decreased production.

Explanation of USOS Tables

Below, you will see tables for each positions USOS. Here is a brief explanation of the make-up of these tables.

The "Team" Column

This is simply the NFL team.

The Values

Each value in the table is the expected number of fantasy points on average or on a per game basis (depending on the column).

The "2013" Column

This is the average expected fantasy points allowed by each team's opponents for this season.

The "Chng" Column

This is the amount of change between the 2013 schedule and the 2012 schedule. A positive value points to an easier SOS than last year while a negative value points to a more difficult SOS compared to last season.

The "EZ" Column

This is the number of easy opponents each team will face this season. An easy opponent is defined as one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) worst defenses. Obviously, it is preferred to have players with as many easy games as possible.

The "TF" Column

This is the number of tough opponents each team will face this season. A tough opponent is defined as one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) best defenses. Obviously, it is preferred to have players with as few tough games as possible.

The "1st3" Column

This is the SOS for the first three weeks of the NFL season. This value is useful to determine how players should be expected to open the season. Players with low values could easily stumble out of the gate.

The "1st5" Column

This is similar to "1st3" except that it covers the first five weeks of the NFL season (note that some teams only play four games in this time frame).

The "Byes" Column

This is the SOS covering the bye weeks. This value is useful to find a complementary player during the byes as you'll need to shuffle players in and out of your starting lineup. A player with an easy schedule during this time would be nice to have.

The "14to16" Column

This is similar to "1st3" except that it specifically covers Week 14 through Week 16.

The "15to17" Column

This is similar to "14to16" except that it specifically covers Week 15 through Week 17.

The "W1" through "W17" Columns

These values are the expected strength of each team's opponent for that particular week (W5 is Week 5, etc). This is very useful when searching for backups for your stud players. The key is to locate players with easy opponents when your star is on a bye.

The Coloring of the Values

The green values indicate that the team has one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) best values in that column. Green was chosen because you can go ahead and take players on that team. The yellow values indicate that the team has one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) worst values in that column. Yellow was chosen because you should use caution before selecting players from that team. (Note: a green / red combo was considered but some people are color blind between those two colors.)

  • Green is a hot team with a good schedule
  • Yellow is a cold team with a bad schedule

Ultimate Strength of Schedule - Team Defenses

Team
2013
Chng
EZ
TF
1st3
1st5
Byes
14to16
15to17
Arizona
10.2
-29.1%
3
4
10.0
10.1
9.8
10.3
9.5
Atlanta
10.0
4.7%
2
5
10.5
10.3
10.5
7.6
8.5
Baltimore
10.8
5.0%
2
4
8.8
10.2
12.2
7.7
9.3
Buffalo
11.4
0.7%
5
3
10.1
10.5
12.7
12.6
10.7
Carolina
9.9
-7.4%
3
6
9.5
11.5
9.8
11.1
10.9
Chicago
10.2
-13.3%
2
5
11.1
10.6
9.4
13.1
11.7
Cincinnati
11.1
-6.2%
5
3
10.9
9.8
11.2
10.7
10.2
Cleveland
11.7
2.6%
5
3
10.2
10.9
11.9
10.8
13.7
Dallas
10.6
-6.3%
4
5
12.2
11.3
10.0
9.1
10.1
Denver
11.9
23.6%
7
2
10.2
11.6
12.0
11.6
10.9
Detroit
10.9
-2.2%
2
5
10.8
10.5
11.4
11.7
9.1
Green Bay
10.6
16.6%
2
5
9.3
9.7
10.7
10.9
12.3
Houston
11.6
21.9%
7
4
12.3
10.4
12.3
11.1
10.4
Indianapolis
11.9
5.0%
7
4
10.6
10.9
11.5
12.6
13.5
Jacksonville
11.3
-13.8%
5
4
11.9
11.5
11.0
11.0
12.2
Kansas City
11.1
-22.5%
5
3
14.2
13.0
10.7
10.0
12.1
Miami
10.8
-7.1%
4
3
10.5
10.1
10.1
9.6
10.6
Minnesota
10.7
15.3%
1
4
11.8
12.1
9.3
12.7
13.1
New England
11.2
27.7%
4
2
12.5
11.6
10.9
11.5
11.5
New Orleans
10.5
8.6%
2
5
11.8
12.1
10.6
10.3
10.1
NY Giants
10.9
5.3%
4
6
9.5
12.2
12.3
10.7
8.7
NY Jets
10.4
-22.5%
1
3
8.6
9.4
10.2
11.1
11.6
Oakland
12.2
9.9%
9
3
11.1
10.8
12.1
15.4
12.3
Philadelphia
10.7
-20.2%
3
5
12.6
10.7
9.1
10.4
10.6
Pittsburgh
11.0
-6.0%
2
3
12.7
11.5
10.5
10.9
10.7
San Diego
11.7
-4.9%
5
3
12.3
12.0
11.6
9.0
11.5
San Francisco
10.6
15.1%
4
6
8.8
9.0
11.3
8.5
11.8
Seattle
10.8
16.8%
4
4
11.2
10.6
10.8
11.5
12.3
St. Louis
10.9
3.2%
4
5
12.4
12.1
10.8
12.0
8.7
Tampa Bay
10.5
0.7%
4
3
9.6
11.5
11.4
9.9
8.9
Tennessee
11.9
-5.8%
7
3
11.5
13.5
12.1
13.0
13.6
Washington
11.0
20.7%
4
5
11.4
11.4
10.8
12.3
9.7
Average
11.0
0%
4
4
11.0
11.0
11.0
11.0
11.0

Week-By-Week Look

Team
W1
W2
W3
W4
W5
W6
W7
W8
W9
Arizona
10.2
11.2
8.7
9.8
10.3
7.8
7.5
8.1
-
Atlanta
8.7
10.2
12.6
4.2
15.8
-
9.8
17.4
10.3
Baltimore
6.4
11.9
8.1
11.7
12.6
7.5
12.9
-
11.9
Buffalo
4.2
10.3
15.8
10.1
11.9
12.6
12.6
8.7
17.0
Carolina
7.5
11.7
9.4
-
17.4
7.8
10.2
9.8
8.1
Chicago
12.6
7.8
12.9
11.2
8.7
9.4
7.3
-
7.5
Cincinnati
12.4
12.9
7.5
11.9
4.2
11.7
11.2
15.8
12.6
Cleveland
12.6
10.1
7.8
12.6
11.7
11.2
7.5
17.0
10.1
Dallas
9.4
17.0
10.2
13.5
6.4
7.3
15.6
11.2
7.8
Denver
10.1
9.4
11.2
15.6
11.7
15.3
11.5
7.3
-
Detroit
7.8
17.4
7.3
12.4
7.5
11.9
12.6
11.7
-
Green Bay
7.8
7.3
12.6
-
11.2
10.1
11.9
7.8
12.4
Houston
13.5
13.3
10.1
7.5
7.8
10.2
17.0
-
11.5
Indianapolis
11.2
12.6
7.8
15.3
7.5
13.5
6.4
-
8.1
Jacksonville
17.0
11.2
7.5
11.5
10.2
6.4
13.5
7.8
-
Kansas City
15.3
11.7
15.6
9.4
13.3
11.2
8.1
11.9
11.7
Miami
11.9
11.5
8.1
8.7
10.1
-
11.7
4.2
12.6
Minnesota
11.2
12.4
11.9
12.9
-
10.3
9.4
7.5
11.7
New England
11.7
15.8
9.8
8.1
12.6
8.7
15.8
12.6
12.9
New Orleans
8.1
9.8
17.4
12.6
12.4
4.2
-
11.7
15.8
NY Giants
11.7
6.4
10.3
17.0
15.6
12.4
7.8
15.6
-
NY Jets
9.8
4.2
11.7
13.3
8.1
12.9
4.2
12.6
8.7
Oakland
11.5
15.3
6.4
7.3
13.5
17.0
-
12.9
15.6
Philadelphia
7.3
13.5
17.0
6.4
9.4
9.8
11.7
9.4
11.2
Pittsburgh
13.3
12.6
12.4
7.8
-
15.8
10.1
11.2
4.2
San Diego
8.1
15.6
13.3
11.7
11.2
11.5
15.3
-
7.3
San Francisco
7.5
7.5
11.5
10.2
8.1
17.4
13.3
15.3
-
Seattle
10.3
7.8
15.3
8.1
11.5
13.3
17.4
10.2
9.8
St. Louis
17.4
8.1
11.7
7.8
15.3
8.1
10.3
7.5
13.3
Tampa Bay
15.8
8.7
4.2
17.4
-
15.6
8.1
10.3
7.5
Tennessee
12.9
8.1
13.5
15.8
17.0
7.5
7.8
-
10.2
Washington
15.6
7.5
11.2
11.2
-
11.7
12.4
6.4
13.5
Average
11.0
11.0
11.0
11.1
11.2
11.0
11.0
10.8
10.9

 

Team
W10
W11
W12
W13
W14
W15
W16
W17
Arizona
8.1
15.3
11.5
15.6
10.2
13.3
7.5
7.8
Atlanta
7.5
9.8
8.7
11.7
7.5
7.3
7.8
10.3
Baltimore
12.6
12.4
15.8
12.9
7.8
11.2
4.2
12.6
Buffalo
12.9
15.8
-
8.1
9.8
15.3
12.6
4.2
Carolina
7.8
4.2
12.6
9.8
8.7
15.8
8.7
8.1
Chicago
11.2
10.1
10.2
Photos provided by Imagn Images
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