WildCard Weekend Outlook
During the regular season many teams will avoid using key offensive or defensive players on returns in order to avoid extra injury risk or added fatigue. But during the playoffs, those extra concerns may go out the window. Most of the playoff teams this season are already using their best returners so we may not see much of a change, but the Green Bay Packers are one possible exception. The Packers have had Randall Cobb split time on returns with DuJuan Harris and Micah Hyde during the regular season, but might give Cobb more opportunities in the playoffs. The Packers have a bye for Wildcard Weekend, so we will have to wait until next week to find out if this is the case.
Kickoff returns tend to net more yards than do punt returns, so a good strategy is starting kick returners playing against teams that fail to achieve many touchbacks on their kickoffs. Amongst playoff teams, the Pittsburgh Steelers have the worst touchback percentage at 36%. Between that and an expectation this may be one of the higher scoring games, Ravens returner Jacoby Jones tops returner projections for the Wildcard round.
The game between the Lions and Cowboys may also see a lot of scoring, with Las Vegas bookmakers favoring Dallas by about a touchdown. Lions returner Jeremy Ross would be the recipient of the resulting return yards if the game plays out that way.
Josh Cribbs may be the beneficiary of a similarly high scoring game as the Colts and Bengals meet. Cincinnati's 46% touchback rate on kickoffs is the second worst amongst teams playing in the Wildcard round.
The game expected to be the lowest scoring pits a Panthers team with a winning percentage below .500 against a Cardinals team that has struggled to score points since quarterback Carson Palmer was lost to injury. It may take an exceptional performance, particularly on punts, for Brenton Bersin or Ted Ginn Jr to rank highly amongst the playoff returners.
Job Changes and Injuries of Note
The teams in the Wildcard largely have established returners who also appear to be healthy going into the playoffs. The Panthers have been using Brenton Bersin on returns more often of late.
Wildcard Weekend Team Return Projections
| Receiving Team | KR Yards | KR TDs | PR yards | PR TDs | Total Yards | Total TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 93 | 0.04 | 18 | 0.04 | 111 | 0.09 |
| Detroit Lions | 69 | 0.02 | 20 | 0.03 | 90 | 0.04 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 68 | 0.03 | 21 | 0.05 | 89 | 0.08 |
| Carolina Panthers | 45 | 0.01 | 22 | 0.03 | 67 | 0.04 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 40 | 0.01 | 23 | 0.03 | 63 | 0.04 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 35 | 0.01 | 18 | 0.02 | 53 | 0.03 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 37 | 0.01 | 15 | 0.02 | 52 | 0.03 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 27 | 0.01 | 19 | 0.02 | 46 | 0.03 |
Wildcard Weekend Player Return Projections
| Player | Team | KR Yards | KR TDs | PR yards | PR TDs | Total Yards | Total TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Jones | Baltimore Ravens | 85 | 0.04 | 14 | 0.04 | 99 | 0.08 |
| Jeremy Ross | Detroit Lions | 63 | 0.02 | 18 | 0.02 | 81 | 0.04 |
| Josh Cribbs | Indianapolis Colts | 55 | 0.03 | 17 | 0.04 | 72 | 0.07 |
| Dwayne Harris | Dallas Cowboys | 32 | 0.01 | 17 | 0.02 | 49 | 0.03 |
| Ted Ginn Jr | Arizona Cardinals | 25 | 0.01 | 17 | 0.02 | 42 | 0.03 |
| Brenton Bersin | Carolina Panthers | 23 | 0.01 | 17 | 0.02 | 40 | 0.03 |
| Adam Jones | Cincinnati Bengals | 26 | 0.01 | 12 | 0.02 | 38 | 0.03 |
| Markus Wheaton | Pittsburgh Steelers | 34 | 0.01 | 1 | 0 | 35 | 0.01 |
| Brandon Tate | Cincinnati Bengals | 10 | 0.00 | 11 | 0.01 | 21 | 0.01 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | Carolina Panthers | 18 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 18 | 0.00 |
| Antonio Brown | Pittsburgh Steelers | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0.02 | 12 | 0.02 |
| Mike Campanaro | Baltimore Ravens | 8 | 0.00 | 3 | 0.00 | 11 | 0.00 |
| Griff Whalen | Indianapolis Colts | 7 | 0.00 | 3 | 0.00 | 10 | 0.00 |
| Philly Brown | Carolina Panthers | 4 | 0.00 | 5 | 0.01 | 9 | 0.01 |
| Golden Tate | Detroit Lions | 7 | 0.00 | 2 | 0.00 | 9 | 0.00 |
| John Brown | Arizona Cardinals | 3 | 0.00 | 2 | 0.00 | 5 | 0.00 |
| Dri Archer | Pittsburgh Steelers | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | Indianapolis Colts | 3 | 0.00 | 1 | 0.00 | 4 | 0.00 |
| Cole Beasley | Dallas Cowboys | 2 | 0.00 | 1 | 0.00 | 3 | 0.00 |
| Daniel Herron | Indianapolis Colts | 3 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 3 | 0.00 |
| J.J. Wilcox | Dallas Cowboys | 2 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 0.00 |
