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It’s hard to believe that it’s already Week 12 of the College Football regular season, but it’s true - the regular season is quickly winding down. Thankfully, we have another huge Saturday of action straight ahead and it’s time to start finalizing our DFS lineups for the week. DraftKings is doing their part to help us wind down the regular season in style as they have their usual lobby full of games posted to fit any budget. We have a ton of ground to cover with 28 games spread across the two main slates. Let’s get right to it, starting with Saturday’s early games.
Saturday’s early slate kicks off at the usual time of 12pm and features 15 games. Featured tournaments include the CFB $85K Redshirt - $3 entry fee for a chance at a top prize of $6,000 – and the CFB $75K Tailgate - $27 buy-in with a 1st place prize of $10,000.
Game totals for the early slate are all over the map and range from a low of 40 projected points for Northwestern at Wisconsin to a high of 71 ½ points for USC at Oregon. As of this writing there are two games without totals posted due to injury concerns – Arizona at Arizona State and Houston at Connecticut. Monitor the news for these two matchups and keep them on your radar while you’re conducting your research as they could be a couple of nice sources of points.
Of the 13 games with projected totals, three come in below 50 points, six are less than 60 points and four games hit the magic number of at least 60 points. We’ll start with those four games to find some building blocks for our lineups.
- Indiana @ Maryland. Maryland -2 ½, 64.
- North Carolina @ Virginia Tech. North Carolina -5 ½, 61 ½.
- Western Kentucky @ Florida International. Western Kentucky -16 ½, 65 ½.
- USC @ Oregon. Oregon -4, 71 ½.
We have a couple of familiar faces and some new kids on the block for our collection of high-scoring games to target. The absence of the usual high-scoring suspects should lead to an interesting Saturday of diversity – both for our lineups and on the leaderboards. Here are some players to key in on for these matchups.
- Indiana RB Jordan Howard, $8,000. Over the past two weeks, Howard has produced 434 combined yards and five total touchdowns. His production will cost you, but our projections call for him to be the top scoring running back for the early slate.
- North Carolina QB Marquise Williams, $8,400. Williams is averaging 43.53 points over his last two games and has nine total touchdowns over that span. A trip to Virginia Tech can always be a tough test but we like Williams to provide a solid return on investment.
- Western Kentucky WR Taywan Taylor, $6,200. For 2015, Taylor has 65 receptions for 1,051 yards and 13 touchdowns. He’s one of the top receivers available for the early games but is not being priced like one. Jump on Taylor at a discount for what could be a high-scoring game.
- USC WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, $7,000. Smith-Schuster has been up and down over the past few weeks but is still averaging 25.6 points per game. For a game with a projected total of 71 ½ points, you’ll want to keep the top receiving threat from that game on your radar.
The above players are in great spots to be among the highest-scoring players at their respective positions for the early slate of games. If we dig a little deeper into these games, we can find some intriguing value plays at each position as well. Maryland QB Perry Hills comes in at a salary of $6,500, is averaging 20.1 points per game this season and has the privilege of facing an Indiana passing defense that is among the worst in the country. There is some risk as Hills has had a couple of rough games in a row, but he should be able to bounce back nicely against an Indiana team that is allowing 341 passing yards per game and has surrendered 28 touchdowns through the air this season.
USC RB Ronald Jones II’s numbers took a dip last week but he’s still averaging 12.9 points per game on the season and offered up a monster 34.9-point performance in Week 10. We like him to bounce back this week and provide some nice value at a salary of $5,100. Finally, Indiana WR Ricky Jones is averaging 16.0 points per game and has scored 20+ points in three games this year. He looks like a solid value play at a price of $4,000. Here are some more players to keep on your radar for the early slate.
- Arizona State QB Mike Bercovici, $7,100. Bercovici has had two down weeks in a row but a date with Arizona should be just the thing to get him back on track. Arizona is allowing 271.2 yards per game and has given up 25 passing touchdowns this year.
- Iowa QB C.J. Beathard, $5,800. Beathard is averaging 24.32 points per game over the last two and our projections call for him to produce a solid return for a reasonable price this week.
- Temple RB Jahad Thomas, $6,900. This is a very reasonable price for a back that is averaging 25.6 points per game this season. Thomas has failed to eclipse the 20-point mark over the last three games but will look to get back on track versus Memphis.
- Houston RB Kenneth Farrow, $6,400. Houston’s starting QB Greg Ward Jr. remains questionable this week which could lead to some more opportunities for Farrow and the running game. Farrow has scored 12 touchdowns this season and is averaging 19.5 points per game.
- LSU WR Malachi Dupre, $4,300. Dupre has really hit his stride as the season winds down with five of his six touchdowns this season coming over the last four weeks. He’s averaging 14.0 points per game and is coming in off of a 27.9-point performance last week versus Arkansas.
- Ole Miss WR Laquon Treadwell, $7,100. Treadwell has been on fire with five consecutive 100-yard receiving games and six touchdowns over that span. Ole Miss has a tough matchup with LSU this week, but with the way Treadwell has been rolling, it’s hard to keep him off the short list.
The late set of games gets underway at 7pm and includes 13 games. Tournament highlights include the CFB $40K Redshirt and the CFB $30K Tailgate. The Redshirt has a $3 entry fee for a chance at a top prize of $3,000, while the Tailgate has a $27 buy-in and a 1st place prize of $3,500.
Projected game totals range from a low of 42 ½ points for two contests to a high of 77 ½ points for the Big 12 tilt between Baylor and Oklahoma State. We have another game without a projected total due to injury concerns – TCU @ Oklahoma – that you will need to monitor for news as it could be a solid source of fantasy points.
The remaining 12 games include three games with projected totals in the 40s, five in the 50s and four at the sweet spot of at least 60 points. We’ll begin the quest to build some winning lineups with those four games.
- Navy @ Tulsa. Navy -12 ½, 69.
- Baylor @ Oklahoma State. PK, 77 ½.
- Cal @ Stanford. Stanford -11, 64 ½.
- Colorado @ Washington State. -15, 62 ½.
Based on the game lines, we have three potential double-digit winners and a projected shootout between Baylor and Oklahoma State. The high-powered offenses of the Big 12 remain an outstanding area of focus for DFS purposes as games involving these teams can quickly turn into shootouts that produce video game type numbers. Keep the following players from these matchups in mind as you construct your lineups.
- Navy QB Keenan Reynolds, $8,100. Reynolds offers tremendous upside in a matchup with a defensively-challenged Tulsa squad. Our projections call for Reynolds to be the top performer for the night games.
- Baylor WR Corey Coleman, $7,600. Coleman has 20 touchdowns this season, is averaging an eye-popping 36.7 points per game and is one of the top receivers in all of College Football. For a game with a projected total of 77 ½ points, Coleman should be at the top of your short list for roster consideration.
- Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey, $8,600. McCaffrey is the most expensive running back for the night games but has the resume to back it up. He’s averaging 28.9 points per game and will be facing off with a Cal team that is allowing nearly 200 rushing yards per game.
- Washington State WR Dom Williams, $6,200. Williams is an affordable piece of the pass-heavy Washington State offense. He’s averaging 29.65 points per game over the last wo and has found the end zone three times over that stretch.
As expected, we have some high-priced studs littered throughout these matchups that we’ll have to make some tough calls on. Whichever ones you decide to roll with, you’ll need some solid value plays to balance out your roster. Focusing on these four games in particular, there are several lower-cost options that could provide some nice bang for your buck. Oklahoma State QB Mason Rudolph comes in at a very reasonable price of $6,600 for the projected shootout with Baylor. Rudolph is averaging 21.4 points per game and is just two weeks removed from dropping 39.68 points on TCU.
Baylor RB Shock Linwood checks in at $6,700 and is averaging 22.9 points per game. There are questions swirling around starting QB Jarrett Stidham’s availability for Saturday’s game so we could see a little boost for the running game if there is a new starter at the helm. Finally, Washington State WR River Cracraft brings an average of 14.7 points per game to the table for a low price of $4,400. For the remainder of the games on Saturday’s late slate, here are some players to keep in mind.
- Arkansas QB Brandon Allen, $5,300. Allen cooled off considerably last week with only 7.84 points, but is only two weeks removed from dropping 47.28 points on Ole Miss. Not sure that he gets there again this week, but his season average of 22.0 points is within reach.
- SMU QB Matt Davis, $7,300. This game projects to be close with SMU a 3-point favorite over Tulsa with a projected total of 56 points. Davis quietly has 25 total touchdowns this season and is a strong candidate for multiple scores on Saturday.
- Georgia RB Sony Michel, $7,300. A week after scoring 25.5 points against Kentucky, Michel produced only 11.0 points against Auburn last week. He’ll look to get back on track against a tough Georgia Southern team.
- TCU RB Aaron Green, $6,600. There are a ton of question marks for TCU at the moment with WR Josh Doctson out for the year and QB Trevone Boykin questionable for Saturday’s game with Oklahoma. Look for TCU to lean on the running game a bit more this week and for Green to have a solid chance of eclipsing his 18.6 points per game average.
- SMU WR Courtland Sutton, $5,400. If you’re rostering Matt Davis, you’ll want to pair him up with Sutton, the top receiving option for SMU. Sutton is coming off of two rough weeks in a row, but we like him to bounce back nicely this week against Tulane.
- Arkansas WR Drew Morgan, $4,200. Morgan struggled last week as he produced only one reception and 28 combined yards against LSU, but the game plan slanted towards the running game. The week prior, the Razorbacks went pass-heavy and Morgan responded with 9/122/3 – good enough for 42.2 points. That’s probably asking for a little too much for this week, but Morgan should be able to provide a nice return on a low salary.
That takes care of Saturday Sleepers and GPP Plays for Week 12. The clock is ticking on the regular season and this is one of the last huge Saturdays left to enjoy wall-to-wall games. Be sure to get your lineups in on time as the featured tournaments will surely fill in advance of kickoff. Best of luck this weekend!